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 No Fear

FEAR NOT Brave Investors

Trade Wars, Manic Discord and Purchasing Managers

This week finished with a rush to risk-on with stock markets and oil all ignoring the mostly dismal U.S. and European economic data. While America is political at war with itself, with an aversion of government shutdown redux and then POTUS declaring a national emergency to build 'The Wall'. Throw in the somewhat laughable commentary from a certain youthful New York Congresswoman devoid of logic, commonsense and experience we have the hallmarks of a sound market, no risk environment, um okay, yeah.  Last week the RBA, BoE and ECB all cautioned over the coming period and downgraded growth estimates, the Fed continues to shuffle pappers, yeah all is golden,

Another political crisis popped up, Spain's Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez called snap elections for April 28, another Italy? To repeat from last week, reality tells us the risk-on is all about FOMO, China who bailed out the West post GFC is not improving economically, yet the never ending saga of a trade bill coming has buoyed the market. What happens if there is actually a deal? Brexit is an inconclusive mess, we are back to touting high PE, or no PE stocks as the stock can NEVER FALL.

Oil marched higher despite Exxon, Chevron, Halliburton and Schlumberger all pointing to higher production, and an OPEC report that pointed to lower demand The market has risk on, despite the backdrop and crash of 8weeks ago BECAUSE OPEC will cut and so will Russia, doesn't matter losing out to U.S. Exports as the mantra. Oh and the economy WILL recover, because...

Talking about risk emerging markets have bounced with everything else since December but it's not just the the Fragile 5 that we should keep an eye on. Over $4 trillion of EM debt matures by the end of 2020, of which around a third is denominated in foreign currency, according to the Institute of International Finance. Nevertheless Banks are talling investors to buy, buy, buy.

If you wanted to play in the big room at Vegas, you are living it.  Understand risk and the madness of crowds for your own sanity and wealth.

The shortened week ahead with President's Day will focus again on China and American trade. On Thursday, we get purchasing managers in Japan, U.S. and the euro zone "flash" PMI data  released. Will they rebound from last month's gloom? 

Focus on yourself and what YOU CAN INFLUENCE, set your trading plan and goals in be set for 2019. One suspects it will be a year long Groundhog day for Trump, the GOP and the Democrats. We still have China and the U.S.trade wars. 

Earnings wise we had Activision Blizzard, Applied Materials, Barrick Gold, Cisco Systems, Coca-Cola, Deere, Molson Coors, Newell Brands,Twilio, Nvidia, Occidental Petroleum, PepsiCo, Restaurant Brands and Under Armour.

This week we get Analog Devices, Autonation, Autozone, Bausch Health, CVS, Domino's, Intuit, Medtronic, Norwegian Cruise, Transocean, Walmart, Wayfair and Wendy's.

-comment section below data-

Geopolitical Tinderbox Radar

Italy CDS
Turkey Geopolitical

Last Week's Big Stories

The Week That Was - Last Weeks Recap

Earnings

Stock Markets

Biggest Stock Winners and Losers Last Week*

 MW Top 5 Stocks 2 15 19

 Which Stocks Moved US ETF's Last Week

 MW Top 5 ETF Stocks 2 15 19

 US Stock Indices Performance 

 MW US Market overview 2 15 19

  S&P 500 

 MW SPX W 2 15 19

  Apple $AAPL  

 MW AAPL W 2 15 19

Amazon $AMZN  

 MW AMZN W 2 15 19

Fixed Interest

10 Year Treasury Note   

 MW TNX W 2 15 19

Energy and Commodities

US Crude Oil (WTI) 

 MW WTI W 2 15 19

US Natural Gas (Henry Hub) 

MW NG W 2 15 19 

Baltic Dry Index (BDI)  

 MW BDI W 2 15 19

Currency Markets

Australian Dollar (AUDUSD)  

 MW AUDUSD W 2 15 19

 New Zealand Dollar (NZDUSD) 

 MW NZDUSD W 2 15 19

Canadian Dollar (USDCAD) 

MW USDCAD W 2 15 19 

Euro (EURUSD) 

MW EURUSD W 2 15 19 

EuroPound (EURGBP) 

MW EURGBP W 2 15 19 

Japanese Yen (USDJPY)  

 MW USDJPY W 2 15 19

 Mexican Peso (USDMXN) 

 MW USDMXN W 2 15 19

Turkish Lire (USDTRY) 

 MW USDTRY W 2 15 19

Bitcoin  

MW BTC D 2 15 19 

The Week Ahead

Key US Economic and Central Bank Events This Week

Mon Feb 18 2019

  • All Day Holiday Canada - Family Day
  • All Day Holiday United States - President's Day (Washington's Birthday)
  • 06:00 EUR German Buba Monthly Report
  • 18:00 JPY Reuters Tankan Index (Feb)
  • 19:30 AUD RBA Meeting Minutes
  • 21:00 NZD RBNZ Offshore Holdings (Jan)

Tues  Feb 19 2019

  • 02:00 CHF Trade Balance (Jan) 
  • 04:00 EUR Italian Industrial New Orders (MoM) (Dec) -
  • 04:00 EUR Italian Industrial Sales (MoM) (Dec)
  • 04:00 EUR Current Account (Dec)
  • 04:30 GBP Employment Change
  • 04:30 GBP Unemployment Rate (Dec)
  • 05:00 EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Feb)
  • 08:50 USD FOMC Member Mester Speaks
  • Tentative NZD GlobalDairyTrade Price Index
  • 10:00 USD NAHB Housing Market Index (Feb)
  • 11:30 USD 3-Month Bill Auction
  • 11:30 USD 6-Month Bill Auction
  • 16:45 NZD PPI Input (QoQ) (Q4)
  • 16:45 NZD PPI Output (QoQ) (Q4)
  • 18:30 AUD MI Leading Index (MoM)
  • 18:50 JPY Trade Balance (Jan)
  • 19:30 AUD Wage Price Index (YoY) (Q4)

Wed Feb 20 2019

  • 02:00 EUR German PPI (YoY) (Jan)
  • 05:40 EUR German 5-Year Bobl Auction
  • 06:00 GBP CBI Industrial Trends Orders (Feb) 
  • 07:00 USD MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
  • 07:00 USD MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW)
  • 07:00 USD MBA Purchase Index
  • 07:00 USD Mortgage Market Index
  • 07:00 USD Mortgage Refinance Index
  • 08:55 USD Redbook (MoM) (YoY)
  • 10:00 EUR Consumer Confidence (Feb)
  • 13:30 USD FOMC Member Bullard Speaks
  • 14:00 USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
  • 16:30 USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
  • 19:30 AUD Employment Change (Jan)
  • 19:30 AUD Participation Rate (Jan)
  • 19:30 AUD Unemployment Rate (Jan)
  • 19:30 JPY Manufacturing PMI (Feb) 
  • 23:30 JPY All Industries Activity Index (MoM)

Thur Feb 21 2019

  • 02:00 EUR German CPI (YoY) (Jan)
  • 02:00 EUR German HICP (YoY) (Jan)
  • 02:45 EUR French Business Survey (Feb)
  • 02:45 EUR French CPI (YoY)
  • 02:45 EUR French HICP (YoY) (Jan)
  • 03:15 EUR French Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
  • 03:15 EUR French Markit Composite PMI (Feb)
  • 03:15 EUR French Services PMI (Feb) 
  • 03:30 EUR German Composite PMI (Feb)
  • 03:30 EUR German Manufacturing PMI (Feb) 
  • 03:30 EUR German Services PMI (Feb) 
  • 04:00 EUR Spanish Trade Balance
  • 04:00 EUR Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
  • 04:00 EUR Markit Composite PMI (Feb)
  • 04:00 EUR Services PMI (Feb)
  • Tentative GBP Inflation Report Hearings
  • 05:00 05:00 EUR Italian CPI (YoY) (Jan)
  • 05:00 EUR Italian HICP (YoY) (Jan) 
  • 07:30 EUR ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting
  • 07:50 USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
  • 08:30 USD Cap Goods Ship Non Defense Ex Air (MoM)
  • 08:30 USD Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Dec)
  • 08:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims
  • 08:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims
  • 08:30 USD Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.
  • 08:30 USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Feb) 
  • 08:30 CAD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
  • 08:30 CAD Wholesale Sales (MoM) (Dec)
  • 09:45 USD Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
  • 09:45 USD Markit Composite PMI (Feb) 
  • 09:45 USD Services PMI (Feb)
  • 10:00 USD Existing Home Sales (MoM) (Jan)
  • 10:30 USD Natural Gas Storage
  • 11:00 USD Crude Oil Inventories
  • 11:30 USD 4-Week Bill Auction
  • 11:30 USD 8-Week Bill Auction
  • 12:35 CAD BoC Gov Poloz Speaks
  • 16:00 17:30 AUD RBA Governor Lowe Speaks
  • 18:30 JPY National Core CPI (YoY) (Jan)
  • 20:30 CNY House Prices (YoY) (Jan)
  • 21:00 NZD Credit Card Spending (YoY)

Fri Feb 22 2019

  • 02:00 EUR German GDP (YoY) (Q4) 
  • 04:00 EUR German Business Expectations
  • 04:00 EUR German Current Assessment 104.3
  • 04:00 EUR German Ifo Business Climate Index
  • 05:00 EUR CPI (MoM) (Jan) 
  • 05:00 EUR CPI (YoY) (Jan)
  • 06:00 GBP CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Feb) 
  • 08:30 CAD Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec)
  • 11:00 CAD Budget Balance (YoY) (Dec)
  • 13:00 USD U.S. Baker Hughes Rig Count
  • 13:30 USD FOMC Member Bullard Speaks
  • 15:30 CFTC speculative net positions

Notable Earnings Reports This Week

*EPS estimates via Morningstar where available

Monday Feb 18

Before Open

  • All Day Holiday Canada - Family Day
  • All Day Holiday United States - President's Day (Washington's Birthday)

After Market Close

  • APERGY CORP APY AQUA AMER INC WTR CONTL RESOURCES CLR HELIX EGY SOLUT HLX MASONITE INT CP DOOR OTTER TAIL CORP OTTR SERVICE CORP IN SCI SUPERIOR ENERGY SPN TEREX CORP TEX TRANSOCEAN LTD RIG RECKITT BENCKSR RBGLY

Tuesday Feb 19

Before Open

  • ADVANCE AUTO PT AAP ANGLOGOLD LTD AU DANONE-ADR DANOY FRESH DEL MONTE FDP MEDTRONIC MDT NOBLE ENERGY NBL SAFE BULKERS SB TOWER SEMICOND TSEM US SILICA HOLDI SLCA WALMART INC WMT

After Close

  • AMERICAS CAR-MT CRMT CONCHO RESOURCS CXO DEVON ENERGY DVN DIAMONDBACK EGY FANG FIRSTENERGY CP FE HERBALIFE LTD HLF LA-Z-BOY INC LZB LENDINGCLUB CP LC

Wednesday Feb 20

Before Open

  • ANALOG DEVICES ADI ARCHROCK INC AROC BAUSCH HEALTH BHC CVS HEALTH CORP CVS ENTERGY CORP ETR HENRY SCHEIN IN HSIC LAMAR ADVER CO LAMR OWENS CORNING OC SOUTHERN CO SO VISHAY PRECISN VPG WIX.COM LTD WIX HSBC HOLDINGS HSBC

After Close

  • AGILENT TECH A BOSTON BEER INC SAM CHEESECAKE FACT CAKE EMPIRE STATE RE ESRT ENERGY TRAN LP ET GODADDY INC-A GDDY IAMGOLD CORP IAG MACQUARIE INFRA MIC NETEASE INC NTES NOBLE CORP PLC NE PAN AMER SILVER PAAS QEP RESOURCES QEP ROGERS CORP ROG SUNOCO LP SUN SYNOPSYS INC SNPS TENARIS SA-ADR TS WPX ENERGY INC WPX

Thursday Feb 21

Before Open

  • BUNGE LTD BG DOMINOS PIZZA DPZ HORMEL FOODS CP HRL NEWMONT MINING NEM NORWEGIAN CRUIS NCLH OPERA LTD-ADR OPRA PHOTRONICS INC PLAB RELIANCE STEEL RS SPROUTS FMR MKT SFM TEEKAY LNG PTNR TGP TEEKAY TANKERS TNK TENNANT CO TNC VISTEON CORP VC VONAGE HOLDINGS VG WENDYS CO/THE WEN ASM INTL NV ASMIY

After Close

  • ACACIA COMMUNIC ACIA ALLIANT ENGY CP LNT BAIDU INC BIDU BOYD GAMING CP BYD CAESARS ENTERTN CZR CONSOL EDISON ED DROPBOX INC-A DBX FIRST SOLAR INC FSLR FLUOR CORP-NEW FLR HEWLETT PKD ENT HPE INTUIT INC INTU IQIYI INC-ADR IQ KRAFT HEINZ CO KHC MATSON INC MATX PARSLEY ENGY-A PE RE/MAX HOLDINGS RMAX ROKU INC ROKU TRADE DESK INC TTD ZILLOW GROUP-C Z

Friday Feb 22

Before Open

  • AUTONATION INC AN CINEMARK HLDGS CNK MAGNA INTL CL A MGA BANK CDA RY RUTHS HOSPITLTY RUTH WAYFAIR INC W ELEKTA B-ADR EKTAY

After Close

  • CENTERRA GOLD CG

For More Earnings and estimates visit Morningstar Earnings Here

Note these estimates and times are subject to change and for indication only. Trade and invest at your own risk.

Trade Smart!  

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