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 Border Wall

FEAR NOT Brave Investors

Trade Wars, The Wall, Venezuela and Earnings

This week we saw a positive response to the SOTU however we also saw the RBA, BoE and ECB all caution over the coming period and downgrade growth estimates. The most worrying is that Germany is on the brink of recession. Couple that with the Fed back talking about QE after implying the U.S. economy is not strong enough to raise rates, the backdrop is not sturdy. 

Reality tells us the risk on is all about FOMO, China who bailed out the West post GFC is not improving economically, that is lost in the trade war bytes. Brexit is an inconclusive mess, we are back to touting high PE, or no PE stocks such as Facebook and Tesla.

We have seen earnings from Exxon, Chevron, Halliburton and Schlumberger all pointing to higher production, natural gas prices are down over 50% of what they were a month ago despite the Polar Vortex while WTI trades at $52 with Venezuela and a fragmented OPEC noise. The market has risk on, despite the backdrop and crash of 7 weeks ago.

Chinese and United States are headed into the next round of trade negotiations, will we see anything substantial out of it? Tmerging markets have bounced with everything else since December but it's not just the the Fragile 5 that we should keep an eye on. Over $4 trillion of EM debt matures by the end of 2020, of which around a third is denominated in foreign currency, according to the Institute of International Finance. 

If you wanted to play in the big room at Vegas, you are living it.  Understand risk and the madness of crowds for your own sanity and wealth.

The week ahead the focus will be back on China and American trade after the Chinese Lunar New Year closed China last week. We also get U.S. consumer and producer inflation data. The headlines will be President Trump’s demand for funds to build a Mexican border wall, Feb. 15 is the compromise date.

Focus on yourself and what YOU CAN INFLUENCE, set your trading plan and goals in be set for 2019. One suspects it will be a year long Groundhog day for Trump, the GOP and the Democrats. We still have China and the U.S.trade wars. 

Earnings wise we had Alphabet (GOOGL), Anadarko (APC), Electronic Arts (EA), BP (BP), Hi-Crush (HCLP), Ralph Lauren (RL), Spotify (SPOT), Take-Two Interactive (TTWO), Sonos (SONO), Total (TOT),Twitter (TWTR), Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) and Phillips 66 (PSX). With about two-thirds of the S&P 500 companies having reported results FactSet says the overall blended EPS growth consensus for the S&P 500 is 13.3% uo from 12.4% a week ago, and from 10.6% at the start of earnings season. The concern is however Q1 guidance growth has fallen off sharply.

This week's earnings include Activision Blizzard, Applied Materials, Barrick Gold, Cisco Systems, Coca-Cola, Deere, Molson Coors, Newell BrandsTwilio, Nvidia, Occidental Petroleum, PepsiCo, Restaurant Brands and Under Armour.

-comment section below data-

Geopolitical Tinderbox Radar

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Last Week's Big Stories

The Week That Was - Last Weeks Recap

Earnings

Stock Markets

Biggest Stock Winners and Losers Last Week*

MW Top 5 Stocks 2 8 19 

 Which Stocks Moved US ETF's Last Week

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 US Stock Indices Performance 

MW US Market overview 2 8 19

  S&P 500 

MW SPX W 2 9 19

  Apple $AAPL  

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Amazon $AMZN  

 MW AMZN W 2 8 19

Fixed Interest

10 Year Treasury Note   

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Energy and Commodities

US Crude Oil (WTI) 

MW WTI W 2 9 19

US Natural Gas (Henry Hub) 

MW NG W 2 9 19

Baltic Dry Index (BDI)  

 MW BDI W 2 9 19

Currency Markets

Australian Dollar (AUDUSD)  

MW AUDUSD W 2 8 19

 New Zealand Dollar (NZDUSD) 

MW NZDUSD W 2 8 19

Canadian Dollar (USDCAD) 

MW USDCAD W 2 8 19

Euro (EURUSD) 

MW EURUSD W 2 8 19

EuroPound (EURGBP) 

MW EURGBP W 2 8 19

Japanese Yen (USDJPY)  

MW USDJPY W 2 8 19

 Mexican Peso (USDMXN) 

MW USDJPY W 2 8 19

Turkish Lire (USDTRY) 

MW USDTRY D 2 8 19

Bitcoin  

MW BTC W 2 9 19

The Week Ahead

Key US Economic and Central Bank Events This Week

Mon Feb 11 2019

  • All Day Holiday Japan - National Founding Day
  • 02:30 CHF CPI (MoM) (Jan)
  • Tentative CNY M2 Money Stock (YoY)
  • Tentative CNY New Loans 1
  • Tentative CNY Outstanding Loan Growth (YoY)
  • 04:30 GBP Business Investment (QoQ) (Q4)
  • 04:30 GBP GDP (MoM)
  • 04:30 GBP Industrial Production (MoM) (Dec)
  • 04:30 GBP Trade Balance (Dec)
  • Tentative USD Core PCE Prices
  • 08:30 CAD Trade Balance (Dec)
  • 10:00 USD MBA Delinquency Rates (QoQ)
  • 11:30 USD 3-Month Bill Auction
  • 11:30 USD 6-Month Bill Auction
  • 19:30 AUD Home Loans (MoM) (Dec)
  • 19:30 AUD NAB Business Confidence (Jan)
  • 23:30 JPY Tertiary Industry Activity Index (MoM)

Tues  Feb 12 2019

  • 01:00 JPY Machine Tool Orders (YoY)
  • 03:00 EUR German Buba President Weidmann Speaks
  • Tentative CNY FDI, M2 Money Stock (YoY),
  • TentTIVE CNY New Loans, Outstanding Loan Growth (Jan)
  • Tentative EUR EU Finance Ministers Meeting
  • 06:00 USD NFIB Small Business Optimism (Jan)
  • 06:00 OPEC Monthly Report
  • 08:00 GBP BoE Gov Carney Speaks
  • 08:55 USD Redbook (YoY) (MoM)
  • 10:00 USD JOLTs Job Openings (Dec)
  • Tentative USD MBA Delinquency Rates (QoQ)
  • 12:45 USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks
  • 16:30 USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
  • 17:30 USD FOMC Member George Speaks
  • 18:30 USD FOMC Member Mester Speaks
  • 18:30 AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment (Feb)
  • 18:30 EUR ECB's Lautenschlaeger Speaks
  • 18:50 JPY PPI (MoM) (Jan) -
  • 19:30 USD FOMC Member George Speaks
  • 20:00 NZD RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
  • 20:00 NZD RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement 
  • 21:00 NZD Inflation Expectations (QoQ)
  • 21:00 NZD RBNZ Press Conference

Wed Feb 13 2019

  • Tentative USD IEA Monthly Report
  • 04:30 GBP CPI (YoY) (Jan)
  • 04:30 GBP House Price Index (YoY) 
  • 04:30 GBP PPI (MoM) (Jan)
  • 05:00 EUR Industrial Production (MoM) (Dec)
  • 05:40 EUR German 30-Year Bund Auction
  • 05:45 EUR Italian 30-Year BTP Auction
  • 07:00 USD MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
  • 07:00 USD MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW)
  • 07:00 USD MBA Purchase Index
  • 07:00 USD Mortgage Market Index
  • 07:00 USD Mortgage Refinance Index 1,053.
  • Tentative USD Building Permits 
  • 08:30 USD CPI (MoM) (Jan) 
  • Tentative USD Goods Trade Balance
  • Tentative USD Housing Starts
  • 08:30 USD Real Earnings (MoM) (Jan)
  • 08:30 USD Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q4)
  • 08:50 USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
  • 08:50 USD FOMC Member Mester Speaks
  • 0:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories
  • 11:00 USD Cleveland CPI (MoM) (Jan)
  • 12:00 USD FOMC Member Harker Speaks 
  • 14:00 USD Federal Budget Balance (Dec)
  • 14:10 NZD RBNZ Gov Orr Speaks
  • 16:45 NZD FPI (MoM) (Jan)
  • 18:50 JPY GDP (QoQ) (Q4)
  • 18:50 JPY GDP Price Index (YoY)
  • 19:00 AUD MI Inflation Expectations
  • 19:01 GBP RICS House Price Balance (Jan) 

Thur Feb 14 2019

  • 01:30 EUR French Unemployment Rate (Q4)
  • 02:00 EUR German GDP (YoY) (Q4) 
  • 02:00 CNY FDI (Jan) 
  • 02:30 CHF PPI (YoY) (Jan)
  • 04:30 GBP MPC Member Vlieghe Speaks
  • 04:30 ZAR Gold Production (YoY) (Dec)
  • 05:00 EUR Employment Change (QoQ)
  • 05:00 EUR GDP (QoQ) (Q4) 
  • 08:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims
  • 08:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims
  • 08:30 USD Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.
  • 08:30 USD PPI (MoM) (Jan) 
  • 08:30 USD Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec)
  • 08:30 CAD Manufacturing Sales (MoM) (Dec)
  • 08:30 CAD New Housing Price Index (MoM) (Dec)
  • 10:00 USD Business Inventories (MoM) (Nov)
  • Tentative USD MBA Delinquency Rates (QoQ)
  • 10:30 USD Natural Gas Storage
  • 11:00 USD FOMC Member Harker Speaks
  • 11:30 USD 4-Week Bill Auction
  • 11:30 USD 8-Week Bill Auction
  • 13:00 USD 30-Year TIPS Auction
  • 15:30 AUD RBA Assist Gov Kent Speaks
  • 16:30 NZD Business NZ PMI (Jan)
  • 18:00 KRW Current Account (Dec)
  • 20:30 CNY CPI (YoY) (Jan) 
  • 20:30 CNY PPI (YoY) (Jan)
  • 23:30 JPY Capacity Utilization (MoM) (Dec)
  • 23:30 JPY Industrial Production (MoM) (Dec)

Fri Feb 15 2019

  • 04:00 EUR Italian Trade Balance (Dec)
  • 04:30 GBP Core Retail Sales (YoY) (Jan)
  • 05:00 EUR Trade Balance (Dec) 1
  • 08:00 EUR ECB's Coeure Speaks
  • 08:30 USD Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan)
  • 08:30 USD Export Price Index (YoY)
  • 08:30 USD Export Price Index (MoM)
  • 08:30 USD Import Price Index (YoY)
  • 08:30 USD NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Feb)
  • 08:30 CAD Foreign Securities Purchases (Dec)
  • 09:15 CAD USD Capacity Utilization Rate (Jan)
  • 09:15  USD Industrial Production (MoM) (Jan)
  • 10:00 USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
  • 10:00 USD FOMC Member Mester Speaks 
  • 10:00 USD MBA Delinquency Rates (QoQ)
  • 10:00USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Feb)
  • 10:45 EUR ECB's Angeloni Speaks
  • 13:00 USD U.S. Baker Hughes Rig Count
  • 15:30 CFTC speculative net positions 

 

Notable Earnings Reports This Week

*EPS estimates via Morningstar where available

Monday Feb 11

Before Open

  • AURORA CANNABIS ACB
  • AVAYA HOLDINGS AVYA
  • DIAMOND OFFSHOR DO
  • LOEWS CORP L
  • NGL ENERGY PART NGL
  • RESTAURANT BRND QSR

After Market Close

  • AMKOR TECH INC AMKR
  • COMPASS MINERLS CMP
  • DCP MIDSTREAM DCP
  • ELEVATE CREDIT ELVT
  • FARMER BROS CO FARM
  • FMC CORP FMC
  • MOLINA HLTHCR MOH
  • OMEGA HLTHCARE OHI
  • STAR BULK CARRS SBLK

Tuesday Feb 12

Before Open

  • HUNTSMAN CORP HUN IPG PHOTONICS IPGP JONES LANG LASL JLL MOLSON COORS-B TAP OMNICOM GRP OMC SABRE CORP SABR SHOPIFY INC SHOP SUPREME CANNABS FIR UNDER ARMOUR-A UAA US FOODS HLDG USFD WEC ENERGY GRP WEC HARMONY GOLD HMY

After Close

  • ACTIVISION BLZD ATVI AKAMAI TECH AKAM ASSURANT INC AIZ CNO FINL GRP CNO CRAY INC CRAY DENNY'S CORP DENN EXELIXIS INC EXEL GROUPON INC GRPN J2 GLOBAL INC JCOM LATTICE SEMICON LSCC OCCIDENTAL PET OXY TASEKO MINES-VA TKO TRIPADVISOR INC TRIP TWILIO INC-A TWLO UNISYS UIS

Wednesday Feb 13

Before Open

  • ALLIANCEBERNSTN AB BARRICK GOLD CP GOLD COLLIERS INT GP CIGI DISH NETWORK CP DISH HEINEKEN NV HEINY HILTON WW HLDG HLT INTERPUBLIC GRP IPG LITHIA MOTORS LAD TEVA PHARM ADR TEVA TOSHIBA CORP TOSYY

After Close

  • AMER INTL GRP AIG CISCO SYSTEMS CSCO DEUTSCHE BOERSE DBOEY EQUINIX INC EQIX FOSSIL GRP INC FOSL GOEASY LTD GSY HYATT HOTELS CP H KINROSS GOLD KGC LAREDO PETROLM LPI MARATHON OIL CP MRO MGM RESORTS INT MGM NETAPP INC NTAP OIL STATES INTL OIS PENN RE INV TR PEI PILGRIMS PRIDE PPC PIONEER NAT RES PXD QUICKLOGIC CORP QUIK TAUBMAN CENTERS TCO WASTE CONNECTN WCN WILLIAMS COS WMB YELP INC YELP

Thursday Feb 14

Before Open

  • AIRBUS GROUP NV EADSY ALKERMES INC ALKS ARCH COAL INC ARCH ASTRAZENECA PLC AZN AVON PRODS INC AVP BOMBARDIER B BBD.B CANADA GOOSE HD GOOS CME GROUP INC CME COCA COLA CO KO CREDIT SUISSE CS DUKE ENERGY CP DUK EQT CORP EQT FANNIE MAE FNMA FREDDIE MAC FMCC INCYTE CORP INCY IRON MOUNTAIN IRM NESTLE S A REG NSRGY QUEST DIAGNOSTC DGX RENAULT SA RNLSY SIX FLAGS ENTMT SIX SONOCO PRODUCTS SON TRANSCDA CORP TRP WASTE MGMT-NEW WM YETI HOLDINGS YETI AIR LIQUIDE-ADR AIQUY COMMERZBANK AG CRZBY CREDIT AGRICOLE CRARY KIRIN HLDGS CO KNBWY

After Close

  • AGNICO EAGLE AEM APPLD MATLS INC AMAT CANOPY GROWTH CGC CANOPY GRWTH-TS WEE CBS CORP CBS COGNEX CORP CGNX ECHELON FIN HLD EFH ELLIE MAE INC ELLI LOGMEIN INC LOGM MAGNACHIP SEMI MX MARIN SOFTWARE MRIN After Market Close MRC GLOBAL INC MRC NORTH AM PALLAD PALDF NVIDIA CORP NVDA PRETIUM RES INC PVG After Market Close REDFIN CORP RDFN SEMICON MFG-ADR SMI SENSUS HEALTHCR SRTS WESTERN GAS EP WGP WESTERN GAS PTR WES

Friday Feb 15

Before Open

  • AIR CANADA ACDVF AMER AXLE & MFG AXL CINEPLEX INC CGX DANA INC DAN DEERE & CO DE ENBRIDGE INC ENB FORTIS INC FTS MOODYS CORP MCO NEWELL BRANDS NWL OLYMPIC STEEL ZEUS PEPSICO INC PEP ROYAL BK SC-ADR RBS YANDEX NV-A YNDX

After Close

  • HAWAIIAN ELEC HE NEXA RESRCS SA NEXA

For More Earnings and estimates visit Morningstar Earnings Here

Note these estimates and times are subject to change and for indication only. Trade and invest at your own risk.

Trade Smart!  

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