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Tech Earnings, Trade Wars, Venezuela and Flexible Fed

Another weak of confusion for markets (some say intentional) which ended with a three week reopening of the US Government, pending a no deal twith he likely use of emergency powers to fund the wall. The decision by Trump, to what the left and hard core right see as a backdown, to many shows POTUS has compassion by yielding, gets his SOTUS and in three weeks gets to use emergency powers if democrats don't do a deal.  We will see, one thing I know is the partisan idiocacy out there in newsland and social media reaches new levels of mindlessness each week.

Eyes on earnings again with big names out after an Intel warnings but beats from the likes of IBM. With another FOMC this week we see if the change of the Fed's tone remain. Chinese Vice Premier Liu heads to the United States on Wednesday and Thursday with 30-member delegation for the next round of trade negotiations, whether the hope of a trade deal, at what point does scepticism outweigh hope?

What else has changed, we have a sombering (at best) EU economy as the ECB spoke of this week, the Marcon mess, the Brexit bungle (another vote this week), and U.S. politics making for a real life black comedy. Emerging markets continue to overhang, particularly the Fragile 5 and Argentina with the new year normally a busy time for sovereign debt issuers. Over $4 trillion of EM debt matures by the end of 2020, of which around a third is denominated in foreign currency, according to the Institute of International Finance.

If you wanted to play in the big room at Vegas, you are living it.  Understand risk and the madness of crowds for your own sanity and wealth.

The week ahead will focus on the Fed, political snipes and trade war stories and finish the weak on the US jobs report and PMI's from Asia, Europe and North America.

Focus on your self and what YOU CAN INFLUENCE, set your trading plan and goals in be set for 2019. One suspects it will be a year long Groundhog day for Trump, the GOP and the Democrats. We still have China and the U.S.trade wars. 

Earnings wise we had Halliburton, IBM, and Starbucks among others. This week we get more big names from tech with Amazon, AMD, Apple, Facebook and Microsoft plus 3M, Allergan, AT&T, Boeing, Caterpillar, General Electric, Honeywell, Pfizer, SAP, Tesla and Verizon and finish with big oil Exxon Mobil and Chevron.

-comment section below data-

Geopolitical Tinderbox Radar

Italy CDS
Turkey Geopolitical

Last Week's Big Stories

  • Fitch Affirm Germany Rating at AAA With Stable Outlook
  • Fitch Affirm Sweden Rating at AAA With Stable Outlook
  • U.S. Oil Rigs Rise 10 With Record Crude Production
  • EIA Reports Large Crude Oil and Gasoline Builds With Record High Production
  • EIA Reports Draw of -163 Bcf in Natural Gas Storage
  • ECB Leaves Rates Unchanged As Expected, Rates Unchanged Through Summer 2019
  • LNG Weekly - Liquid Natural Gas Export Monitor Jan 23 2019
  • Japanese Exports Fall -3.8% y/y in Fastest Fall in 2 Years
  • U.S. Existing Home Sales Plummet to Three Year Low
  • China GDP Growth Lowest Since GFC, More Stimulus Expected
  • Japanese Manufacturers Sentiment Two Year Low - Reuters Tankan
  • Macquarie Bank Picks Nickel To Be Top Commodity in 2019

The Week That Was - Last Weeks Recap

Earnings

Stock Markets

Biggest Stock Winners and Losers Last Week*

MW Top 5 1 25 19

 Which Stocks Moved US ETF's Last Week

 MW Top 5 ETF 1 25 19

 US Stock Indices Performance MW US Perf 1 25 19

  S&P 500 MW SPX W 1 25 19

  Apple $AAPL  MW AAPL D 1 25 19

Amazon $AMZN MW AMZN D 1 25 19 

 

Fixed Interest

10 Year Treasury Note   MW TNX W 1 25 19

Energy and Commodities

US Crude Oil (WTI) MW WTI W 1 25 19

US Natural Gas (Henry Hub) MW NG W 1 25 19

Baltic Dry Index (BDI)  MW BDI W 1 25 19

Currency Markets

Australian Dollar (AUDUSD)  MW AUDUSD W 1 25 19

 New Zealand Dollar (NZDUSD) MW NZDUSD W 1 25 19

Canadian Dollar (USDCAD) MW USDCAD W 1 25 19

Euro (EURUSD) MW EURUSD W 1 25 19

EuroPound (EURGBP) MW EURGBP D 1 25 19

Japanese Yen (USDJPY) MW USDJPY W 1 25 19 

 Mexican Peso (USDMXN) MW USDMXN D 1 25 19

Turkish Lire (USDTRY) MW USDTRY D 1 25 19

Bitcoin

  MW BTC W 1 25 19

The Week Ahead

Key US Economic and Central Bank Events This Week

Data that was delayed by the US Government Shutdown

via @Yogi_Chan

Mon Jan 28

  • All Day Holiday Australia - Australia Day
  • 03:30 HKD Trade Balance
  • 08:30 USD Chicago Fed National Activity (Dec)
  • 10:30 USD Dallas Fed Mfg Business Index (Jan)
  • 11:30 USD 3-Month Bill Auction
  • 11:30 USD 6-Month Bill Auction
  • Tentative USD WASDE Report
  • 13:00 USD 2-Year Note Auction
  • 13:00 USD 5-Year Note Auction
  • 16:45 NZD Trade Balance (MoM) (Dec)
  • 19:30 AUD NAB Business Confidence (Dec)

Tues Jan 29

  • 02:00 CHF Trade Balance (Dec)
  • 02:45 EUR French Consumer Confidence (Jan)
  • 03:00 EUR Spanish Unemployment Rate (Q4) 
  • 04:00 EUR Italian PPI (MoM)
  • 04:15 GBP BoE Deputy Governor Woods Speaks
  • 08:55 USD Redbook (YoY)(MoM)
  • 09:00 USD S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 s.a. (MoM) (Nov)
  • 10:00 USD CB Consumer Confidence (Jan)
  • 10:30 USD Dallas Fed Services Revenues (Jan)
  • 10:30 USD Texas Services Sector Outlook (Jan)
  • 11:30 USD 52-Week Bill Auction
  • 13:00 USD 7-Year Note Auction 
  • Tentative GBP UK Parliament vote on Brexit deal
  • 16:30 USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock 1
  • 18:50 JPY Retail Sales (YoY) (Dec)

Wed Jan 30

  • 01:30 EUR French GDP (QoQ) (Q4)
  • 02:00 EUR GfK German Consumer Climate (Feb) 
  • 02:45 EUR French Consumer Spending (MoM) (Dec)
  • 3:00 CHF KOF Leading Indicators (Jan)
  • 03:00 EUR Spanish Retail Sales (YoY) (Dec)
  • 04:00 EUR Italian Business Confidence (Jan)
  • 04:00 EUR Italian Consumer Confidence (Jan)
  • 04:00 CHF ZEW Expectations (Jan)
  • 05:00 EUR Business and Consumer Survey (Jan)
  • 07:00 USD MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
  • 07:00 USD MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW)
  • 07:00 USD MBA Purchase Index
  • 07:00 USD Mortgage Market Index
  • 07:00 USD Mortgage Refinance Index
  • 08:00 EUR German CPI (MoM) (Jan) 
  • 08:15 USD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jan) 
  • 08:30 USD PCE Prices
  • 08:30 USD GDP (QoQ) (Q4)
  • 08:30 USD Real Consumer Spending (Q4)
  • 10:00 USD Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Dec)
  • 10:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories
  • 14:00 USD FOMC Statement
  • 14:00 USD Fed Interest Rate Decision
  • 18:50 JPY BoJ Summary of Opinions
  • 18:50 JPY Industrial Production (MoM) (Dec)
  • 19:01 GBP GfK Consumer Confidence (Jan)
  • 19:30 AUD Export Price Index (QoQ) (Q4)
  • 19:30 AUD Housing Credit (Dec)
  • 19:30 AUD Import Price Index (QoQ) (Q4)
  • 20:00 CNY Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
  • 20:00 CNY Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
  • 20:30 JPY BOJ Deputy Governor Amamiya Speaks 

Thur Jan 31

  • 00:00 JPY Housing Starts (YoY) (Dec)
  • 02:00 EUR German Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec) -
  • 02:45 EUR French CPI  (MoM) 0
  • 02:45 EUR French PPI (MoM)
  • 03:00 EUR Spanish GDP (QoQ) (Q4)
  • 03:55 EUR German Employment Change (Jan) \
  • 04:00 EUR Italian GDP (QoQ) (Q4)
  • 05:00 EUR GDP (YoY) 1.6% 05:00 EUR GDP (QoQ)
  • 05:00 EUR Unemployment Rate (Dec) 
  • 07:30 USD Challenger Job Cuts (Jan)
  • 08:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims 
  • 08:30 USD Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Dec)
  • 08:30 USD Employment Benefits (QoQ) (Q4)
  • 08:30 USD Employment Cost Index (QoQ) (Q4)
  • 08:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims
  • 08:30 USD Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg
  • 08:30 USD PCE Deflator (MoM) 0.1%
  • 08:30 USD Personal Income (MoM) (Dec)
  • 08:30 USD Personal Spending (MoM) (Dec)
  • 08:30 USD Real Personal Consumption (MoM) (Dec)
  • 08:30 CAD GDP (MoM) (Nov)
  • 08:30 CAD IPPI (MoM) (Dec) -
  • Tentative USD Dallas Fed PCE (Dec) 
  • 09:45 USD Chicago PMI (Jan)
  • 10:30 USD Natural Gas Storage
  • 11:30 USD 4-Week Bill Auction
  • 11:30 USD 8-Week Bill Auction
  • 12:45 CAD BoC Gov Council Member Wilkins Speaks
  • 16:30 AUD AIG Manufacturing Index (Jan)
  • 18:30 JPY Unemployment Rate (Dec)
  • 19:00 KRW Trade Balance (Jan)
  • 19:30 KRW Nikkei Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
  • 19:30 AUD PPI (QoQ) (Q4) 
  • 19:30 JPY Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
  • 20:45 CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 

Fri Feb 1

  • 00:30 AUD Commodity Prices (YoY)
  • 02:45 EUR French Government Budget Balance (Dec)
  • 03:15 EUR Spanish Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
  • 03:45 EUR Italian Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 
  • 03:50 EUR French Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
  • 03:55 EUR German Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 
  • 04:00 EUR Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
  • 04:30 GBP Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
  • 05:00 EUR Core CPI (YoY) 1
  • 08:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (YoY) (Jan)
  • 08:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Jan)
  • 08:30 USD Average Weekly Hours (Jan)
  • 08:30 USD Nonfarm Payrolls (Jan)
  • 08:30 USD Participation Rate (Jan) 
  • 08:30 USD U6 Unemployment Rate (Jan)
  • 08:30 USD Unemployment Rate (Jan)
  • 09:30 CAD RBC Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 
  • 09:45 USD Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
  • 10:00 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
  • 10:00 USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jan)
  • 13:00 USD U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count
  • 15:30 USD Total Vehicle Sales

 

Notable Earnings Reports This Week

*EPS estimates via Morningstar where available

Monday Jan 28

Before Open

  • CATERPILLAR INC CAT
  • FOUR SEASONS ED FEDU
  • LUBY'S INC LUB
  • PROVIDENT FINL PROV
  • SCORPIO BULKERS SALT

After Market Close

  • AK STEEL HLDG AKS
  • CRANE CO CR
  • ETHAN ALLEN INT ETH
  • GRACO INC GGG
  • INTEGR DEVICE IDTI
  • RAMBUS INC RMBS
  • REINSURANCE GRP RGA
  • SANMINA CORP SANM
  • WHIRLPOOL CORP WHR 

Tuesday Jan 29

Before Open

  • 3M CO MMM
  • ALLERGAN PLC AGN
  • BIOGEN INC BIIB
  • CIT GROUP CIT
  • CORNING INC GLW
  • DANAHER CORP DHR
  • DOVER CORP DOV
  • HARLEY-DAVIDSON HOG
  • L3 TCHNOLOGIES LLL
  • LOCKHEED MARTIN LMT
  • NUCOR CORP NUE
  • PACCAR INC PCAR
  • PFIZER INC PFE
  • POLARIS INDUS PII
  • PULTE GROUP ONC PHM
  • ROCKWELL AUTOMT ROK
  • SAP SE SAP VERIZON
  • COMM VZ
  • XEROX CORP XRX

After Close

  • ADV MICRO DEV AMD
  • ALIGN TECH INC ALGN
  • AMGEN INC AMGN
  • APPLE INC AAPL
  • CDN NATL RY CO CNI
  • EBAY INC EBAY
  • ILLUMINA INC ILMN
  • JUNIPER NETWRKS JNPR
  • KLA-TENCOR CORP KLAC
  • MAXIM INTG PDTS MXIM
  • ROBT HALF INTL RHI
  • STRYKER CORP SYK

Wednesday Jan 30

Before Open

  • ALIBABA GROUP BABA
  • ANTHEM INC ANTM
  • AT&T INC T
  • AUTOMATIC DATA ADP
  • BOEING CO BA
  • CHECK PT SOFTW CHKP
  • EVERCORE INC EVR
  • GENL DYNAMICS GD
  • HESS CORP HES
  • INGERSOLL RAND IR
  • INVESCO LTD IVZ
  • MCDONALDS CORP MCD
  • NASDAQ INC NDAQ
  • ROYAL CARIBBEAN RCL
  • SIEMENS AG-ADR SIEGY
  • SILICON LAB INC SLAB
  • SIRIUS XM HLDGS SIRI
  • TUPPERWARE BRND TUP

After Close

  • CIRRUS LOGIC CRUS
  • CORE LABS NV CLB
  • CREE INC CREE
  • FACEBOOK INC-A FB
  • MICROSOFT CORP MSFT
  • MURPHY OIL MUR
  • PAYPAL HOLDINGS PYPL
  • QUALCOMM INC QCOM
  • TESLA INC TSLA
  • UTD STATES STL X
  • VISA INC-A V
  • WYNN RESRTS LTD WYNN

Thursday Jan 31

Before Open

  • ALTRIA GROUP MO
  • AMERISOURCEBRGN ABC
  • BAKER HUGHES GE BHGE
  • BLACKSTONE GRP BX
  • BLUE APRON HLDG APRN
  • CELGENE CORP CELG
  • CMS ENERGY CMS
  • CNX RESOURCES CNX
  • CONOCOPHILLIPS COP
  • DOWDUPONT INC DWDP
  • FERRARI NV RACE
  • GENL ELECTRIC GE
  • HERSHEY CO/THE HSY
  • INTL PAPER IP
  • MASTERCARD INC MA
  • NOKIA CP-ADR A NOK
  • NOMURA HLDG-ADR NMR
  • NORTHROP GRUMMN NOC
  • RAYTHEON CO RTN
  • ROYAL DTCH SH-A RDS.A 
  • SHERWIN WILLIAM SHW
  • SPRINT CORP S
  • TRACTOR SUPPLY TSCO
  • TUESDAY MORNING TUES
  • UTD PARCEL SRVC UPS
  • VALERO ENERGY VLO

After Close

  • AFLAC INC AFL
  • AMAZON.COM INC AMZN
  • CELESTICA INC CLS
  • CYPRESS SEMICON CY
  • EDWARDS LIFESCI EW
  • KULICKE & SOFFA KLIC
  • MCKESSON CORP MCK
  • SYMANTEC CORP SYMC

Friday Feb 1

Before Open

  • AB ELECTROLUX ELUXY
  • AON PLC AON
  • CHEVRON CORP CVX
  • CIGNA CORP CI
  • DOMINION ENERGY D
  • EXXON MOBIL CRP XOM
  • HONDA MOTOR HMC
  • HONEYWELL INTL HON
  • IDEXX LABS INC IDXX
  • IMPERIAL OIL LT IMO
  • JOHNSON CONTRLS JCI
  • KKR & CO INC KKR
  • LYONDELLBASEL-A LYB
  • MERCK & CO INC MRK
  • SONY CORP ADR SNE

After Close

  • Nil

For More Earnings and estimates visit Morningstar Earnings Here

Note these estimates and times are subject to change and for indication only. Trade and invest at your own risk.

Trade Smart!  

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