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Bank of America Mortgage

FEAR NOT Brave Investors :

Banks Earnings, Trade Wars, Shutdowns and Flexible Fed

Week 2 of 2019 gave us a calmer market after the chaos from the Apple warning. we saw stock markets continue to rally on the hopes of a flexible and friendly Fed with WTI closing the week over $50 also. However the US government is shut down for 2 weeks and the division between the Demcocrats and Trump over collusion only grew louder. Bank earnings kick in next week with the focus to shift there.

The change of the Fed's tone has this far put a bid under the markets with the hope of a trade deal, at what point does scepticism outweigh hope?

What else has changed, we see still have the EU budget to watch in Italy, the Marcon mess, the Brexit bungle and U.S. politics making for a real life black comedy. Emerging markets continue to overhang, particularly the Fragile 5 and Argentina with the new year normally a busy time for sovereign debt issuers. Over $4 trillion of EM debt matures by the end of 2020, of which around a third is denominated in foreign currency, according to the Institute of International Finance.

If you wanted to play in the big room at Vegas, you are living it.  Understand risk and the madness of crowds for your own sanity and wealth.

The week ahead begins 

Focus on your self and what YOU CAN INFLUENCE, set your trading plan and goals in be set for 2019. One suspects it will be a year long Groundhog day for Trump, the GOP and the Democrats. We still have China and the U.S.trade wars. 

Earnings wise we have the major banks; Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, Morgan Stanley, PNC and Wells Fargo also Alcoa, American Express, CSX, Delta Airlines, Netflix, Schlumberger, United Continental, UnitedHealth Group and VF Corp all reporting this week.

-comment section below data-

Geopolitical Tinderbox Radar

Italy CDS
Turkey Geopolitical

Last Week's Big Stories

The Week That Was - Last Weeks Recap

 

Stock Markets

Biggest Stock Winners and Losers Last Week*

MW Top 5 1 11 19 

 Which Stocks Moved US ETF's Last Week

 MW Top 5 ETF 1 11 19

 US Stock Indices Performance

MW US Perf 1 11 19

  S&P 500

 MW SPX W 1 10 19

  Apple $AAPL

 MW AAPL W 1 11 19

Amazon $AMZN 

MW AMZN D 1 11 19 

 

Fixed Interest

10 Year Treasury Note  MW TNX W 1 11 19

Energy and Commodities

US Crude Oil (WTI)

MW WTI W 1 10 19

US Natural Gas (Henry Hub)

 MW NG W 1 10 19

Baltic Dry Index (BDI)

  MW BDI W 1 11 19

Currency Markets

Australian Dollar (AUDUSD)

MW AUDUSD W 1 10 19

 New Zealand Dollar (NZDUSD)

 MW NZDUSD W 1 10 19

Canadian Dollar (USDCAD)

MW USDCAD W 1 10 19

Euro (EURUSD)

 MW EURUSD W 1 10 19

EuroPound (EURGBP)

 MW EURGBP D 1 4 19

Japanese Yen (USDJPY)

MW USDJPY W 1 10 19

 Mexican Peso (USDMXN)

MW USDMXN D 1 10 19

Turkish Lire (USDTRY)

 MW USDTRY D 1 10 19

Bitcoin

  MW BTC W 1 11 19

The Week Ahead

Key US Economic and Central Bank Events This Week

Data that could be delayed by the US Government Shutdown

via @Yogi_Chan

Mon Jan 14

  • All Day Holiday Japan - Coming of Age (Adults') Day
  • Tentative CNY FDI
  • 02:00 EUR German WPI (MoM) (Dec) 
  • 05:00 EUR Industrial Production (MoM) (Nov)
  • Tentative CNY Trade Balance (USD) (Dec)
  • Tentative USD Fed Chair Powell Testifies
  • 11:30 USD 3-Month Bill Auction
  • 11:30 USD 6-Month Bill Auction 
  • Tentative USD WASDE Report
  • 16:00 NZD NZIER Business Confidence (Q4)
  • 16:00 NZD NZIER QSBO Capacity Utilization (Q4)

Tues Jan 15

  • 01:00 JPY Machine Tool Orders (YoY)
  • 01:30 EUR French GDP (QoQ) (Q4) 
  • 02:45 EUR French CPI (MoM) (Dec)
  • 02:45 EUR French Government Budget Balance (Nov)
  • 03:00 EUR German GDP Annual
  • 03:00 EUR Spanish CPI (MoM) (Dec)
  • 04:30 ZAR Gold Production (YoY) (Nov)
  • 04:30 ZAR Mining Production (Nov)
  • Tentative GBP UK Parliament vote on Brexit deal
  • 05:00 EUR Trade Balance (Nov)
  • Tentative USD Trade Balance
  • 08:30 USD PPI (MoM) (Dec) 
  • 08:30 USD NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jan) 
  • 08:55 USD Redbook (MoM)
  • Tentative NZD GlobalDairyTrade Price Index
  • 10:00 USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism
  • 13:00 USD FOMC Member George Speaks
  • 16:30 USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
  • 18:30 AUD MI Leading Index (MoM)
  • 18:30 AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment
  • 18:50 JPY Core Machinery Orders (MoM) (Nov)
  • 18:50 JPY PPI (MoM) (Dec)
  • 20:30 CNY House Prices (YoY) (Dec)
  • 23:30 JPY Tertiary Industry Activity Index (MoM)

Wed Jan 16

  • 02:00 EUR German CPI (MoM) (Dec)
  • 04:30 GBP PPI  (MoM) (Dec)
  • 04:30 GBP CPI (MoM) (Dec)
  • 05:00 EUR Italian CPI (MoM) (Dec)
  • 05:40 EUR German 30-Year Bund Auction
  • 07:00 USD MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
  • 07:00 USD MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW)
  • 07:00 USD MBA Purchase Index
  • 07:00 USD Mortgage Market Index
  • 07:00 USD Mortgage Refinance Index
  • 08:30 USD Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec)
  • 08:30 USD Export Price Index (MoM) (Dec)
  • 08:30 USD Import Price Index (MoM) (Dec)
  • 10:00 USD Business Inventories (MoM) (Nov)
  • Tentative USD Factory Orders (MoM)
  • 10:00 USD NAHB Housing Market Index (Jan)
  • 10:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories
  • 14:00 USD Beige Book 16:00 
  • 16:00 USD TIC Net Long-Term Transactions including Swaps (Nov)
  • 18:30 USD FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks
  • 18:30 AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment (Jan)
  • Tentative AUD HIA New Home Sales (MoM)
  • Tentative CNY GDP (YoY) (Q4)
  • 21:00 CNY NBS Press Conference

Thur Jan 17

  • 04:00 EUR Italian Trade Balance (Nov) 
  • 05:00 EUR CPI (MoM) (Dec)
  • 06:00 USD OPEC Monthly Report
  • 06:00 EUR ECB's Lautenschlaeger Speaks 
  • 08:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims
  • 08:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims
  • 08:30 USD Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 
  • 08:30 USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jan)
  • 08:30 CAD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
  • 10:30 USD Natural Gas Storage
  • 10:45 USD FOMC Member Quarles Speaks
  • 11:30 USD 4-Week Bill Auction
  • 11:30 USD 8-Week Bill Auction
  • 13:00 USD 10-Year TIPS Auction
  • 16:30 NZD Business NZ PMI (Dec)
  • 18:30 JPY National Core CPI (YoY) (Dec)
  • Tentative AUD HIA New Home Sales (MoM) 
  • 23:30 JPY Capacity Utilization (MoM) (Nov)
  • 23:30 JPY Industrial Production (MoM) (Nov)

Fri Jan 18

  • 04:00 USD IEA Monthly Report
  • 04:00 EUR Current Account (Nov) 
  • 04:30 GBP Retail Sales (YoY) (Dec)
  • 08:30 CAD CPI (YoY) (Dec)
  • 09:05 USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks
  • 09:15 USD Capacity Utilization Rate (Dec)
  • 09:15 USD Industrial Production (MoM) (Dec)
  • 10:00 USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jan)
  • 11:00 USD FOMC Member Harker Speaks 
  • 13:00 USD U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 

 

Notable Earnings Reports This Week

*EPS estimates via Morningstar where available

Monday Jan 14

Before Open

After Close

  • GOODFOOD MKT-TS FOO

Tuesday Jan 15

Before Open

After Close

  • FULTON FINL FULT HANMI FINL CP HAFC PINNACLE FIN PT PNFP UNITED CONT HLD UAL

Wednesday Jan 16

Before Open

After Close

  • ALCOA CORP AA CSX CORP CSX EAGLE BCP INC EGBN FULLER(HB) CO FUL HANCOCK WHITNEY HWC PLEXUS CORP PLXS

Thursday Jan 17

Before Open

  • BB&T CORP BBT COMMERCE BANCSH CBSH FASTENAL FAST HOME BANCSHARES HOMB INSTEEL INDS IIIN KEYCORP NEW KEY M&T BANK CORP MTB MGIC INVSTMT CP MTG MORGAN STANLEY MS PPG INDS INC PPG SANDY SPRING SASR WNS HLDGS-ADR WNS

After Close

  • AMER EXPRESS CO AXP ATLASSIAN CP-A TEAM BANK OZK OZK BRIGHT SCHL-ADR BEDU ENTEGRA FINL CP ENFC HUNT (JB) TRANS JBHT INDEP BK MASS INDB NETFLIX INC NFLX PEOPLES UTD FIN PBCT PREFERRED BANK PFBC

Friday Jan 18

Before Open

  • CITIZENS FIN GP CFG FIRST HRZN NATL FHN KANSAS CITY SOU KSU REGIONS FINL CP RF SCHLUMBERGER LT SLB STATE ST CORP STT SUNTRUST BKS STI V F CORP VFC WIPRO LTD-ADR WIT

After Close

  • Nil

Note these estimates and times are subject to change and for indication only. Trade and invest at your own risk.

Trade Smart!  

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