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Flexible

FEAR NOT Brave Investors :

Happy New Year

Volatilty, Trade Wars, Shutdowns and Flexible Fed

What a start to 2019, Apple warning, Forex flash crashes, reversals, Fed flexibility, boom job numbers and so much more. We have not even gone seven days! Politicially in the US the Democrats took over the house and its been about impeachments, changing the electoral college and no compromise. Meanwhile the US government as been shut down for 2 weeks and it's all about a wall, hardly, the past week shows just how clearly the country is divided and a constructive political landscape for the next two years is unlikely. 

The change of the Fed's tone on Friday put a bid under the markets after global markets felt the pressure as both the ECB and Fed officially ended it's QE programme with the world is soaked in unproductive debt. What is the big move from here to avoid the rubber meeting the road?

We see still have the EU budget to watch in Italy, the Marcon mess, the Brexit bungle and U.S. politics making for a real life black comedy. Emerging markets continue to overhang, particularly the Fragile 5 and Argentina with the new year normally a busy time for sovereign debt issuers. Over $4 trillion of EM debt matures by the end of 2020, of which around a third is denominated in foreign currency, according to the Institute of International Finance.

If you wanted to play in the big room at Vegas, you are living it.  Understand risk and the madness of crowds for your own sanity and wealth.

The week ahead begins with the release of the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for December, given that the non-manufacturing sector accounts for a much bigger slice of the U.S. economic pie, manufacturing accounts for ~12% of GDP this is a much more significant release than the manufacturing PMI that were so soft last week. We get insight into employment trends and pricing in service industries, which have wider meaning for the labor market and inflation outlook and the Fed's path toward policy rate normalization.

Focus on your self and what YOU CAN INFLUENCE, set your trading plan and goals in be set for 2019. One suspects it will be a year long Groundhog day for Trump, the GOP and the Democrats. We still have China and the U.S.trade wars. 

Earnings wise we have Cannabis producer Aphria, Constellation Brands and home builders KB Homes and Lennar. The stock market will have eyes on CES 2019 for the latest consumer tech trends.

-comment section below data-

Geopolitical Tinderbox Radar

Italy CDS
Turkey Geopolitical

Last Week's Big Stories

The Week That Was - Last Weeks Recap

 

Stock Markets

Biggest Stock Winners and Losers Last Week*

MW Top 5 1 4 19 

 Which Stocks Moved US ETF's Last Week

 MW Top 5 ETF 1 4 19

 US Stock Indices Performance

 MW US Perf 1 4 19

  S&P 500

 MW SPX W 1 4 19

  Apple $AAPL

MW AAPL W 1 4 19 

Amazon $AMZN 

 MW AMZN D 1 4 19

 

Fixed Interest

10 Year Treasury Note

 MW TNX W 1 4 19

Energy and Commodities

US Crude Oil (WTI)

 MW WTI W 1 4 19

US Natural Gas (Henry Hub)

 MW NG W 1 4 19

Baltic Dry Index (BDI)

MW BDI W 1 4 19  

Currency Markets

Australian Dollar (AUDUSD)

MW AUDUSD W 1 4 19

 New Zealand Dollar (NZDUSD)

 MW NZDUSD W 1 4 19

Canadian Dollar (USDCAD)

MW USDCAD W 1 4 19

Euro (EURUSD)

 MW EURUSD W 1 4 19

EuroPound (EURGBP)

 MW EURGBP 240 1 4 19

Japanese Yen (USDJPY)

MW USDJPY W 1 4 19

 Mexican Peso (USDMXN)

MW USDMXN D 1 4 19

Turkish Lire (USDTRY)

 MW USDTRY 240 1 4 19

Bitcoin

  MW BTC W 1 4 19

The Week Ahead

Key US Economic and Central Bank Events This Week

Data that could be delayed by the US Government Shutdown

via @Yogi_Chan

Mon Jan 7

  • All Day Holiday Russia - Orthodox Christmas
  • 02:00 EUR German Factory Orders (MoM) (Nov)
  • 02:00 EUR German Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov) 
  • 03:00 CNY FX Reserves (USD)
  • 04:00 EUR Italian Public Deficit (Q3) 
  • 04:30 EUR Sentix Investor Confidence (Jan)
  • 05:00 EUR Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov)
  • 10:00 USD Cap Goods Ship Non Defense Ex Air (MoM)
  • 10:00 USD CB Employment Trends Index (Dec)
  • 10:00 USD Factory Orders (MoM) (Nov)
  • 0:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Dec)
  • 10:00 CAD Ivey PMI (Dec)
  • 11:30 USD 3-Month Bill Auction
  • 11:30 USD 6-Month Bill Auction
  • 12:40 USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
  • 19:30 AUD ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM)
  • 19:30 AUD Trade Balance (Nov)
  • 22:35 JPY 10-Year JGB Auction

Tues Jan 8

  • 00:00 JPY Household Confidence (Dec)
  • 02:00 EUR German Industrial Production (MoM) (Nov)
  • 02:45 EUR French Current Account (Nov)
  • 7.3B 02:45 EUR French Trade Balance (Nov) 
  • 03:30 GBP Halifax House Price Index (MoM) (Dec)
  • 05:00 EUR Business and Consumer Survey (Dec) 
  • 05:00 EUR Consumer Confidence (Dec)
  • 06:00 USD NFIB Small Business Optimism (Dec) 
  • 08:30 USD Trade Balance (Nov)
  • 08:30 CAD Trade Balance (Nov)
  • 08:55 USD Redbook (MoM) (YoY)
  • 10:00 USD JOLTs Job Openings (Nov)
  • 13:00 USD 3-Year Note Auction
  • 15:00 USD Consumer Credit (Nov)
  • 16:30 USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
  • 16:30 AUD AIG Services Index (Dec)
  • 19:00 NZD ANZ Commodity Price Index (MoM)
  • 19:30 AUD Building Approvals (MoM) (Nov)
  • 19:30 AUD Private House Approvals (Nov) 

Wed Jan 9

  • 02:00 EUR German Trade Balance (Nov) 
  • 02:45 EUR French Consumer Confidence (Dec)
  • 04:00 EUR Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate (Nov) 
  • 05:00 EUR Unemployment Rate (Nov)
  • 05:30 EUR Spanish Business Confidence
  • 05:40 EUR German 10-Year Bund Auction 
  • 07:00 USD MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
  • 07:00 USD MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW)
  • 07:00 USD MBA Purchase Index
  • 07:00 USD Mortgage Market Index
  • 07:00 USD Mortgage Refinance Index
  • Tentative GBP NIESR GDP Estimate 
  • 08:15 CAD Housing Starts (Dec)
  • 08:20 USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
  • 09:00 USD Chicago Fed President Evans Speaks
  • 10:00 USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism
  • 10:00 CAD BoC Monetary Policy Report
  • 10:00 CAD BoC Interest Rate Decision
  • 10:30 GBP BoE Gov Carney Speaks 1
  • 0:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories
  • 11:00 CAD BOC Press Conference
  • 11:30 USD FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks
  • 13:00 USD 10-Year Note Auction
  • 14:00 USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
  • 19:01 GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor (YoY) (Dec)
  • 19:30 AUD NAB Business Confidence
  • 20:30 CNY CPI (MoM) (Dec)
  • 20:30 CNY PPI (YoY) (Dec)
  • 22:35 JPY 30-Year JGB Auction 

Thur Jan 10

  • 00:00 JPY Leading Index (MoM) (Nov)
  • 02:45 EUR French Industrial Production (MoM) (Nov)
  • 04:00 EUR Italian Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov)
  • 04:00 EUR Italian Retail Sales (YoY) (Nov) 
  • 07:30 EUR ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting
  • 08:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims
  • Tentative USD Goods Trade Balance (Nov) 
  • 08:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims
  • 08:30 USD Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.
  • 08:30 CAD Building Permits (MoM) (Nov)
  • 08:30 CAD New Housing Price Index (MoM) (Nov)
  • 08:35 USD FOMC Member Barkin Speaks
  • Tentative USD Construction Spending (MoM) (Nov)
  • Tentative USD New Home Sales (MoM)
  • Tentative USD New Home Sales
  • Tentative USD Wholesale Inventories (MoM) (Nov)
  • 10:30 USD Natural Gas Storage
  • 11:30 USD 4-Week Bill Auction
  • 11:30 USD 8-Week Bill Auction
  • 12:00 USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks
  • 12:30 USD FOMC Member Bullard Speaks
  • 13:00 USD 30-Year Bond Auction
  • 13:00 USD Chicago Fed President Evans Speaks
  • 16:30 AUD AIG Construction Index (Dec) 
  • 17:30 USD FOMC Member Clarida Speaks
  • 8:30 JPY Household Spending (MoM) (Nov)
  • 18:50 JPY Adjusted Current Account
  • 19:00 USD FOMC Member Clarida Speaks
  • 19:30 AUD Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov)

Fri Jan 11

  • 00:00 JPY Economy Watchers Current Index (Dec)
  • 03:00 EUR Spanish Industrial Production (YoY) (Nov) 
  • 03:20 EUR ECB's Mersch Speaks
  • 04:00 EUR Italian Industrial Production (MoM) (Nov)
  • 04:30 GBP GBP GDP (MoM)
  • 04:30 GBP Industrial Production (MoM) (Nov) 
  • 04:30 GBP Trade Balance (Nov)
  • 08:30 USD Core CPI (MoM) (Dec) 
  • 08:30 USD CPI (MoM) (Dec)
  • 08:30 USD Real Earnings (MoM) (Dec)
  • 11:00 USD Cleveland CPI (MoM) (Dec)
  • 12:00 USD WASDE Report
  • 13:00 USD U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
  • 14:00 USD Federal Budget Balance (Dec) -205.0B
  • Tentative CFTC GBP speculative net positions

 

Notable Earnings Reports This Week

*EPS estimates via Morningstar where available

Monday Jan 7

Before Open

  • COMMERCIAL METL CMC

After Close

Tuesday Jan 8

Before Open

  • AZZ INC AZZ HELEN OF TROY HELE LINDSAY CORP LNN NORTHERN TECH NTIC

After Close

  • SMART GLBL HLDG SGH

Wednesday Jan 9

Before Open

  • ACUITY BRANDS AYI CONSTELLATN BRD STZ CONSTELTN BRD-B STZ.B GREENBRIER COS GBX LENNAR CORP -A LEN LENNAR CORP -B LEN.B MSC INDL DIRECT MSM SCHNITZER STEEL SCHN

After Close

  • ARITZIA INC ATZ BED BATH&BEYOND BBBY FRANKLIN COVEY FC KB HOME KBH PRICESMART INC PSMT RICHARDSON ELEC RELL SARATOGA INVEST SAR SIMULATION PLUS SLP VOXX INTL CP VOXX WD 40 CO WDFC

Thursday Jan 10

Before Open

  • FUELCELL ENERGY FCEL

After Close

  • AEHR TEST SYS AEHR COGECO COMMUNIC CCA COGECO -SUB VTG CGO SYNNEX CORP SNX

Friday Jan 11

Before Open

  • APHRIA INC APHA APHRIA INC-TS APH CORUS ENTMT-B CJREF CORUS ENTMT-TS CJR

After Close

  • INFOSYS LTD INFY

Note these estimates and times are subject to change and for indication only. Trade and invest at your own risk.

Trade Smart!  

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