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 Santa Grabbed by Bear

FEAR NOT Brave Investors :

Merry Christmas

Chaos, Trade Wars, Shutdowns and Trump

Market turmoil picked up with the same themes as the weight of record margin debt, fear and end of year liquidity say the S&P 500 have the worse week since August 2011 and the Dow and Nasdaq the worse since 2008. We had the Fed raise rates and the US government shutdown. Don't be fooled by these as the catalysts as we have been saying for months this is how overshot markets recoil, there are a multidue of reasons.  What was the blind partisan hatred in the U.S. think was going to happen with a nation so divided and wishing ill will on the opposite side? Even worse is the blind belief in their own side and everyone else is just stupid.

In this error of no responsibility bulls blame everyone else, we harp on about not being partisan for a reason in your decisions you will NEVER see the forest for the trees even when they are crashing down around you. You always believe your guy is NEVER wrong and their's is NEVER right, blind hatred, lambs to slaughter.

Crude oil markets felt the wrath depite OPEC+ decision to cut oil production by 1.4 mbpd  as huge bull funds blew out and the equity sell off hit commodities and commodity currencies. Natural gas for it's part swung violently all week only to close near where it started.  This isn't the Christmas market we have come to expect. US markets remain under pressure also with U.S. treasury yield curve inversion which in the past has been a signal that has preceded every recent U.S. recession in recent memory by between 15 months and 2 years.  The ECB officially ended it's QE programme and at the same time lowered EU growth and inflation outlooks.

Watch weather, risk, skews and biases. Remember you don't have to be in a trade; We see still have the EU budget to watch in Italy, the Marcon mess, the Brexit bungle and U.S. politics making for a real life black comedy. Emerging markets continue to overhang, particularly the Fragile 5 and Argentina. Stay alert, expect the unexpected.

If you wanted to play in the big room at Vegas, you are living it.  Understand risk and the madness of crowds for your own sanity and wealth.

The week ahead will again focus on the Fed after raising rates in a very illiquid holiday market. It is Groundhog day for Trump, the GOP and the Democrats. We still have China and the U.S.trade wars and a US government shutdown. 

Earnings wise we have only one company reporting in the U.S. Time to relfect on the affect of Tariffs and the Chinese slowdown impact on demand and increasing costs. Higher raw materials costs, wages and interest rates are hanging over margin and earnings forecasts.

Happy Holidays From Everyone at Traders Community

-comment section below data-

Geopolitical Tinderbox Radar

Italy CDS
Turkey Geopolitical

Last Week's Big Stories

The Week That Was - Last Weeks Recap

 

Stock Markets

Biggest Stock Winners and Losers Last Week*

 MW Top 5 Stocks 12 21 18

 Biggest US Stock ETF Influencers Last Week

 MW Top 5 ETF Stocks 12 21 18

 US Stock Indices Performance

 MW US Perf 12 21 18

  S&P 500

 SPX W 12 21 10

  Apple $AAPL

 MW AAPL W 12 21 18

Amazon $AMZN 

 MW AAPL W 12 21 18

 

Fixed Interest

10 Year Treasury Note

 MW TNX W 12 21 18

Energy and Commodities

US Crude Oil (WTI)

 MW WTI W 12 21 18

US Natural Gas (Henry Hub)

MW NG W 12 21 18 

Baltic Dry Index (BDI)

  MW BDI W 12 21 18

Currency Markets

 Australian Dollar (AUDUSD) 

 MW AUD W 12 21 18

 New Zealand Dollar (NZDUSD)

 MW NZD W 12 21 18

Canadian Dollar (USDCAD)

 MW CAD W 12 21 18

Euro (EURUSD)

MW EUR W 12 21 18 

EuroPound (EURGBP)

MW EURGBP D 12 21 18 

Japanese Yen (USDJPY)

MW JPY W 12 21 18

 Argentine Peso (USARS)

 MW ARS D 12 21 18

Turkish Lire (USDTRY)

 MW TRY D 12 21 18

Bitcoin

  MW BTC W 12 21 18

The Week Ahead

Key US Economic and Central Bank Events This Week

Data that could be delayed by the US Government Shutdown

via @Yogi_Chan

Mon Dec 24

  • All Day Holiday Brazil - Christmas Eve
  • All Day Holiday Italy - Christmas Eve
  • All Day Holiday Japan - Holiday
  • All Day Holiday Germany - Christmas Eve
  • Holiday Hong Kong - Christmas Eve - Early close at 12:00
  • Holiday United Kingdom - Christmas Eve - Early close at 12:30
  • Holiday Singapore - Christmas Eve - Early close at 12:35
  • Holiday New Zealand - Christmas Eve - Early close at 12:45
  • Holiday United States - Christmas Eve - Early close at 13:00
  • Holiday Canada - Christmas Eve - Early close at 13:00
  • Holiday Spain - Christmas Eve - Early close at 14:00
  • Holiday France - Christmas Eve - Early close at 14:05
  • Holiday Australia - Christmas Eve - Early close at 14:10
  • 08:30 USD Chicago Fed National Activity (Nov)
  • 11:30 USD 3-Month Bill Auction
  • 11:30 USD 6-Month Bill Auction
  • 13:00 USD 2-Year Note Auction
  • 18:50 JPY Corporate Services Price Index (CSPI) (YoY)

Tues Dec 25

  • All Day Holiday Australia - Christmas
  • All Day Holiday Canada - Christmas Day
  • All Day Holiday France - Christmas Day
  • All Day Holiday Hong Kong - Christmas Day
  • All Day Holiday Italy - Christmas
  • All Day Holiday New Zealand - Christmas Day
  • All Day Holiday Singapore - Christmas Day
  • All Day Holiday South Africa - Christmas Day
  • All Day Holiday Spain - Christmas Day
  • All Day Holiday South Korea - Christmas Day
  • All Day Holiday Switzerland - Christmas Day
  • All Day Holiday United Kingdom - Christmas Day
  • All Day Holiday United States - Christmas
  • All Day Holiday Germany - Christmas
  • All Day Holiday India - Christmas
  • All Day Holiday Brazil - Christmas
  • 00:00 JPY Leading Index 
  • 18:50 JPY Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
  • 23:00 JPY BoJ Governor Kuroda Speaks

Wed Dec 26

  • All Day Holiday Australia - Boxing Day
  • All Day Holiday Canada - Boxing Day
  • All Day Holiday France - Boxing Day
  • All Day Holiday Hong Kong - Christmas Day
  • All Day Holiday Italy - St. Stephen's Day A
  • ll Day Holiday New Zealand - Boxing Day
  • All Day Holiday South Africa - Day of Goodwill
  • All Day Holiday Spain - Boxing Day
  • All Day Holiday Switzerland - Boxing Day
  • All Day Holiday United Kingdom - Boxing Day
  • All Day Holiday Germany - Second Christmas Day
  • 00:00 JPY BoJ Core CPI (YoY)
  • 03:00 EUR Spanish PPI (YoY) 
  • 07:00 USD MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
  • 07:00 USD MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW)
  • 08:55 USD Redbook (YoY) (MoM)
  • 09:00 USD S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 s.a. (MoM) (Oct)
  • 10:00 USD Richmond Manufacturing Index (Dec)
  • 16:30 USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock

Thur Dec 27

  • 04:00 EUR ECB Economic Bulletin
  • 06:00 EUR France Jobseekers
  • 08:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims
  • 08:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims
  • 08:30 USD Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.
  • 08:00 USD House Price Index (YoY) (Oct)
  • 10:00 USD CB Consumer Confidence (Dec)
  • 10:00 USD New Home Sales (MoM) (Nov)
  • 11:30 USD 4-Week Bill Auction
  • 11:30 USD 8-Week Bill Auction
  • 13:00 USD 7-Year Note Auction
  • 16:30 USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
  • 18:30 JPY Tokyo CPI (YoY) (Dec)
  • 18:30 JPY Unemployment Rate (Nov)
  • 18:50 JPY BoJ Summary of Opinions
  • 18:50 JPY Industrial Production (MoM) (Nov)
  • 18:50 JPY Retail Sales (YoY) (Nov)
  • 19:30 AUD Housing Credit (Nov) 

Fri Dec 28

  • 03:00 CHF KOF Leading Indicators (Dec) 
  • 03:00 EUR Spanish CPI (MoM)
  • 03:00 EUR Spanish GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
  • 04:00 EUR Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate (Nov)
  • 08:00 EUR German CPI (MoM) (Dec) 
  • 08:30 USD Goods Trade Balance (Nov) 
  • 08:30 USD Wholesale Inventories (MoM)
  • 09:45 USD Chicago PMI (Dec)
  • 10:00 USD New Home Sales (MoM) (Nov) 
  • 10:30 USD Natural Gas Storage
  • 11:00 USD Crude Oil Inventories 
  • 13:00 USD U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
  • 15:30 CFTC Speculative net positions  

 

Notable Earnings Reports This Week

*EPS estimates via Morningstar where available

Monday Dec 24

Before Open

After Close

Tuesday Dec 25

Before Open

After Close

Wednesday Dec 26

Before Open

After Close

Thursday Dec 27

Before Open

After Close

Friday Dec 28

Before Open

  • ADDVANTAGE TECH AEY

After Close

  • Nil

Note these estimates and times are subject to change and for indication only. Trade and invest at your own risk.

Trade Smart!  

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