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 Market Blood Red Crash

FEAR NOT Brave Investors :

Chaos, Trade Wars, Shutdowns and Trump

More Chaos this week, politically a mess in the UK, France, Italy and the U.S. and stockmarkets responded accordingly.  With UK PM May winning a vote of no confidence, Macron's popularity in France falling faster than any major leader in history and in the US market's growing tired of Trump's political problems.  Crude oil markets languished despitre last week's OPEC+ decision to cut oil production by 1.4 mbpd  as traders questions the validity of the decision. Natural gas for it's part failed after another run at cycle highs over 20% in jsut over 2 sessions.  China talks have a huge shadow since the arrest of the daughter of the CFO, and founder of Chinese giant Huawei on fraud charges linked to Iran sanctions. This isn't the Christmas market we have come to expect.

US markets remain under pressure also with U.S. treasury yield curve inversion which in the past has been a signal that has preceded every recent U.S. recession in recent memory by between 15 months and 2 years.  The ECB officially ended it's QE programme and at the same time lowered EU growth and inflation outlooks.

Watch weather, risk, skews and biases. Remember you don't have to be in a trade; We see still have the EU budget to atch in Italy. Emerging markets continue to overhang, particularly the Fragile 5 and Argentina. Stay alert, expect the unexpected.

If you wanted to play in the big room at Vegas, you are living it.  Understand risk and the madness of crowds for your own sanity and wealth.

The week ahead will again focus on the Fed with it's last FOMC meeting of the year where it is expected to raise rates, though there is a growing group leaning to no change. The BoJ and BoE also have monetary policy decisions this week.  Groundhog day on China and the U.S.trade wars and a US government shutdown. We have the yield curve, Brexit and France.

Earnings wise we are in the crumbs of the reporting season. Continue to note the affect of Tariffs and the Chinese slowdown impact on demand and increasing costs. Higher raw materials costs, wages and interest rates are hanging over margin and earnings forecasts. Earnings this week include Accenture, CarMax, Conagra, Darden Restaurants, FedEx, Micron Technology, Nike, Oracle and Red Hat

-comment section below data-

Geopolitical Tinderbox Radar

Italy CDS
Turkey Geopolitical

Last Week's Big Stories

The Week That Was - Last Weeks Recap

 

Stock Markets

Biggest Stock Winners and Losers Last Week*

MW Top 5 Stocks 12 14 18 

 Biggest US Stock ETF Influencers Last Week

MW Top 5 ETF Stocks 12 14 18 

 US Stock Indices Performance

 MW US Perf 12 14 18

  S&P 500

 MW SPX W 12 14 18

  Apple $AAPL

MW AAPL W 12 14 18

Amazon $AMZN 

MW AMZN W 12 14 18

 

Fixed Interest

10 Year Treasury Note

 MW TNX W 12 14 18

Energy and Commodities

US Crude Oil (WTI)

 MW WTI W 12 14 18

US Natural Gas (Henry Hub)

 MW NG W 12 14 18

Baltic Dry Index (BDI)

  MW BDI W 12 14 18

Currency Markets

 Australian Dollar (AUDUSD) 

 MW AUD W 12 14 18

 New Zealand Dollar (NZDUSD)

 MW NZD W 12 14 18

Canadian Dollar (USDCAD)

 MW CAD W 12 14 18

Euro (EURUSD)

 MW EUR W 12 14 18

EuroPound (EURGBP)

MW EURGBP D 12 14 18 

Japanese Yen (USDJPY)

MW JPY W 12 14 18

 Argentine Peso (USARS)

 MW ARS D 12 14 18

Turkish Lire (USDTRY)

 MW TRY D 12 14 18

Bitcoin

  MW BTC W 12 14 18

The Week Ahead

Key US Economic and Central Bank Events This Week

Mon Dec 17

  • All Day Holiday South Africa - Day of Reconciliation
  • 04:00 EUR Italian Trade Balance (Oct)
  • 05:00 EUR CPI  (MoM) (Nov) 
  • 05:00 EUR Trade Balance (Oct)
  • 06:00 EUR German Buba Monthly Report
  • 08:30 USD NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Dec)
  • 8:30 CAD Foreign Securities Purchases (Oct)
  • 10:00 USD NAHB Housing Market Index (Dec)
  • 11:30 USD 3-Month Bill Auction
  • 11:30 USD 6-Month Bill Auction
  • 16:00 USD US TIC Report (Oct)
  • Tentative AUD HIA New Home Sales (MoM)
  • 19:00 NZD ANZ Business Confidence (Dec)
  • 19:30 AUD Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook
  • 19:30 AUD RBA Meeting Minutes
  • 21:00 NZD RBNZ Offshore Holdings (Nov)

Tues Dec 18

  • 04:00 EUR German Business Expectations
  • 04:00 EUR German Ifo Business Climate Index
  • 08:30 USD Building Permits (MoM) (Nov)
  • 08:30 USD Housing Starts (Nov) 
  • 08:30 CAD Manufacturing Sales (MoM) (Oct)
  • 08:55 USD Redbook (YoY) (MoM)
  • Tentative NZD GlobalDairyTrade Price Index
  • Tentative NZD Westpac Consumer Sentiment (Q4)
  • 16:30 USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
  • 16:45 NZD Current Account (QoQ) (Q3)
  • 18:30 AUD MI Leading Index (MoM)
  • 18:50 JPY Trade Balance (Nov)

Wed Dec 19

  • 02:00 EUR German PPI (MoM) (Nov)
  • 04:30 GBP CPI (MoM) (Nov)
  • 04:30 GBP PPI (MoM) (Nov)
  • 04:30 GBP House Price Index (YoY)
  • 07:00 US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
  • 07:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW)
  • 07:00 US MBA Purchase Index 
  • 08:30 USD Current Account (Q3)
  • 08:30 CAD CPI  (MoM) (Nov) 
  • 10:00 USD Existing Home Sales (Nov) 
  • 10:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories
  • 14:00 USD FOMC Economic Projections
  • 14:00 USD FOMC Statement
  • 14:00 USD Fed Interest Rate Decision
  • 14:30 USD FOMC Press Conference
  • 16:45 NZD GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
  • 16:45 NZD Trade Balance (MoM) (Nov)
  • 19:30 AUD Employment Change (Nov)
  • 19:30 AUD Unemployment Rate (Nov) 
  • Tentative JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement
  • Tentative JPY BoJ Interest Rate Decision
  • 23:30 JPY All Industries Activity Index (MoM)

Thur Dec 20

  • 01:30 JPY BoJ Press Conference
  • 02:00 CHF Trade Balance (Nov) 
  • 03:30 HKD CPI (YoY) (Nov)
  • 04:00 EUR Italian PPI (MoM) (Nov)
  • 04:00 EUR Current Account (Oct) 
  • 04:30 GBP Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov)
  • 07:00 GBP BoE MPC Interest Rate Decision (Dec)
  • 08:30 USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Dec) 
  • 08:30 USD Philly Fed Prices Paid (Dec)
  • 08:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims
  • 08:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims
  • 08:30 USD Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.
  • Tentative CAD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
  • 08:30 CAD Wholesale Sales (MoM) (Oct)
  • 10:30 USD Natural Gas Storage
  • 11:30 USD 4-Week Bill Auction 
  • 11:30 USD 8-Week Bill Auction
  • 13:00 USD 5-Year TIPS Auction
  • 18:30 JPY National CPI (YoY) (Nov) 
  • 19:01 GBP GfK Consumer Confidence (Dec)

Fri Dec 21

  • EUR GfK German Consumer Climate (Jan)
  • 02:45 EUR French Business Survey (Dec) 
  • 02:45 EUR French Consumer Spending (MoM) (Nov)
  • 02:45 EUR French GDP (QoQ)
  • 02:45 EUR French PPI (MoM) (Nov)
  • 04:00 EUR Italian Business Confidence (Dec) 
  • 04:00 EUR Italian Consumer Confidence (Dec)
  • 04:00 EUR Spanish Trade Balance 
  • 04:30 GBP Business Investment (QoQ) (Q3)
  • 04:30 GBP Current Account (Q3)
  • 04:30 GBP GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
  • 05:00 EUR Italian Trade Balance Non-EU (Nov) 
  • 07:00 GBP BoE Quarterly Bulletin
  • Tentative USD Fed Chair Powell Testifies
  • 08:30 USD Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Nov)
  • 08:30 USD PCE Prices (Q3)
  • 08:30 USD Corporate Profits (QoQ) (Q3)
  • 08:30 USD GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
  • 08:30 USD Real Consumer Spending (Q3) 3.6%
  • 08:30 CAD GDP (MoM) (Oct) 0.2% -0.1%
  • 08:30 CAD Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct)
  • 10:00 USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Dec)
  • 10:00 USD PCE Deflator (MoM) 0.2%
  • 10:00 USD Personal Income (MoM) (Nov)
  • 10:00 USD Personal Spending (MoM) (Nov)
  • 10:00 USD Real Personal Consumption (MoM) (Nov)
  • 10:00 CAD BoC Business Outlook Survey
  • 10:00 EUR Consumer Confidence (Dec)
  • 11:00 USD KC Fed Composite Index (Dec)
  • 11:00 USD KC Fed Manufacturing Index (Dec) 
  • 11:00 CAD Budget Balance (Oct)
  • Tentative USD Dallas Fed PCE (Nov)
  • 13:00 USD U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
  • 15:30 CFTC Speculative net positions  

 

Notable Earnings Reports This Week

*EPS estimates via Morningstar where available

Monday Dec 17

Before Open

  • CHINA ONLINE ED COE ENWAVE CORP ENW

After Close

Tuesday Dec 18

Before Open

  • DARDEN RESTRNT DRI FACTSET RESH FDS LOVESAC CO/THE LOVE NAVISTAR INTL NAV TUANCHE LTD-ADR TC WORTHINGTON IND WOR

After Close

  • AAR CORP AIR ABM INDUSTRIES ABM FEDEX CORP FDX JABIL INC JBL MICRON TECH MU STEELCASE INC SCS

Wednesday Dec 19

Before Open

  • GENL MILLS GIS NCI BLDG SYSTEM NCS PAYCHEX INC PAYX WINNEBAGO WGO

After Close

  • BSM TECHNOLOGS GPS HERMAN MILLER MLHR PIER 1 IMPORTS PIR REV GROUP INC REVG RITE AID CORP RAD TWIST BIOSCIENC TWST

Thursday Dec 20

Before Open

  • ACCENTURE PLC ACN ACTUANT CORP ATU ADDVANTAGE TECH AEY APOGEE ENTRPRS APOG BLACKBERRY LTD BB BLACKBERRY-TS BB CONAGRA BRANDS CAG NEOGEN CORP NEOG SANDERSON FARMS SAFM WALGREENS BAI WBA

After Close

  • CALAMP CORP CAMP IKANG HEALTHCR KANG NIKE INC-B NKE RF INDUSTRIES RFIL

Friday Dec 21

Before Open

  • CARMAX GP (CC) KMX

After Close

  • Nil

Note these estimates and times are subject to change and for indication only. Trade and invest at your own risk.

Trade Smart!  

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