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Blood Oil 

FEAR NOT Brave Investors :

Oil, Trump, Trade Wars, and Weather

This week again was about volatilty in the energy markets, with three 6% moves in Crude oil and mutliple 10% moves in Natural Gas with algorithims exaggerating moves in thin markets. Oil was the result of huge long funds liquidating in low liquidity and the POTUS relentless tweet about Saudi Arabia and lower oil prices, Moving forward the U.S. oil and gas sector vulnerable at these prices, debt covenants, wage growth all impact the US economy and as such the 2008/9 play is dangerously in play. Unexpected consequences are real, something in a blind partisan U.S. the red and blue divide neglects or is simply ignorant too.

From last week " This week reminded us of risk, not to follow the herd and to understand the fundamentals and technicals of your underlying asset.  Two things to note, the emotional danger of blindly falling in love with a stock or commodity, (anything really), was borne out with the $100 oil mantra and it's collapse. The need to follow a book talking one hit wonder is beyond us? The second was borne out by the violent move in natural gas. Here is an example of risk, potential and power". Moving forward keep your mind independant as we now face the extreme forecasts the other way, the natural retort by gamber's lost. Cryptocurrencies continued to collapse, Bitcoin trading 70% off it's all time high, others 95% or more off their highs. 

Watch weather, watch risk, for oil expect more OPEC chatter.  Remember you don't have to be in a trade!  We see mayhem with Brexit and those emerging markets continue to overhang, particularly the Fragile 5 and Argentina. Stay alert, expect the unexpected.

If you wanted to play in the big room at Vegas, you are living it.  Understand risk and the madness of crowds for your own sanity and wealth.

The week ahead will focus again on the G-20 and where China and the U.S. are headed on trade. We have Brexit, Italy and back in the U.S. we get to hear more from Fed Chairman Powell. Major tech stocks such as $AAPL, $FB, $GOOGL, $NVDA, $AMD and $NFLX have been hit hard as have energy stocks with the crude collapse, the market is at risk and it is not just the Fed pushing the buttons. The success of Black Friday and Cyber Monday will influence direction as will commentary leading into G20 meetings.

Earnings wise we are in the tail end of the reporting season. Continue to note the affect of Tariffs and the Chinese slowdown impact on demand and increasing costs. Higher raw materials costs, wages and interest rates are hanging over margin and earnings forecasts. Earnings last week were missed again including Deere and name retailers such as Target (TGT) and Urban Outitters (URBN) with investors watching for any guidance for the holiday season. .

Earnings this week include Canadian Banks, Salesforce.com (CRM) and more Retail Companies.

-comment section below data-

Geopolitical Tinderbox Radar

Italy CDS
Turkey Geopolitical

Last Week's Big Stories

The Week That Was - Last Weeks Recap

Earnings Reports

 

Stock Markets

Biggest Stock Winners and Losers Last Week*

MW Week Top 5 11 24 18 

 US Stock Indices Performance

MW US Perf 11 24 18

  S&P 500

 MW SPX W 11 24 18

  Apple $AAPL

MW AAPL W 11 24 18

Amazon $AMZN

 MW AMZN W 11 24 18

Fixed Interest

US Yield Curve & SPX

MW SPX Yield 11 24 18

10 Year Treasury Note

 MW TNX W 11 24 18

Energy and Commodities

US Crude Oil (WTI)

 MW WTI W 11 24 18

US Natural Gas (Henry Hub)

 MW NG W 11 24 18

Baltic Dry Index (BDI)

  MW BDI W 11 24 18

Currency Markets

 Australian Dollar (AUDUSD) 

 MW AUD W 11 24 18

 New Zealand Dollar (NZDUSD)

 MW NZD W 11 24 18

Canadian Dollar (USDCAD)

 MW CAD W 11 24 18

Euro (EURUSD)

 MW EUR W 11 24 18

EuroPound (EURGBP)

 MW EURGBP W 11 24 18

Japanese Yen (USDJPY)

 MW JPY W 11 24 18

Argentine Peso (USARS)

 MW ARS D 11 24 18

Turkish Lire (USDTRY)

 MW TRY D 11 24 18

Bitcoin

 MW BTC W 11 24 18

 

The Week Ahead

Key US Economic and Central Bank Events This Week

Mon Nov 26

  • 04:00 EUR German Ifo Business Climate Index
  • 04:00 EUR ECB's Praet Speaks
  • 07:00 EUR ECB's Coeure Speaks
  • 07:00 EUR ECB's Nowotny Speaks
  • 08:30 USD Chicago Fed National Activity (Oct)
  • 09:00 EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
  • 10:30 USD Dallas Fed Mfg Business Index (Nov)
  • 11:30 USD 3-Month Bill Auction
  • 11:30 USD 6-Month Bill Auction
  • 13:00 USD 2-Year Note Auction
  • 13:30 GBP BoE Gov Carney Speaks
  • 15:30 GBP CFTC speculative net positions
  • 16:45 NZD Trade Balance (MoM) (Oct) 

Tues Nov 27

  • 00:00 JPY BoJ Core CPI (YoY)
  • 02:45 EUR French Consumer Confidence (Nov)
  • 04:00 EUR Italian Business Confidence (Nov)
  • 04:00 EUR Italian Consumer Confidence (Nov)
  • Tentative USD OPEC Meeting 
  • 08:30 USD FOMC Member Clarida Speaks
  • 08:55 USD Redbook (YoY) (MoM)
  • 09:00 USD House Price Index (MoM) (Sep)
  • 09:00 USD S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 s.a. (MoM) (Sep)
  • 10:00 USD CB Consumer Confidence (Nov)
  • 10:30 USD Dallas Fed Services Revenues (Nov)
  • 10:30 USD Texas Services Sector Outlook (Nov)
  • 11:00 EUR ECB's Mersch Speaks
  • 11:30 USD 4-Week Bill Auction
  • 11:30 USD 8-Week Bill Auction
  • 13:00 USD 5-Year Note Auction
  • 14:30 USD Chicago Fed President Evans Speaks
  • 14:30 USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
  • 14:30 USD FOMC Member George Speaks
  • 15:00 NZD RBNZ Financial Stability Report
  • 6:30 USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks
  • 17:00 NZD RBNZ Gov Orr Speaks 

Wed Nov 28

  • Tentative GBP BoE Financial Stability Report
  • 02:00 EUR GfK German Consumer Climate (Dec)
  • 04:00 EUR Italian PPI  (MoM) (Oct)
  • 04:00 CHF ZEW Expectations (Nov)
  • 07:00 US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
  • 07:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW)
  • 07:00 US MBA Purchase Index 
  • 08:30 USD Corporate Profits (QoQ) (Q3) 
  • 08:30 USD GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
  • 08:30 USD Goods Trade Balance (Oct) -
  • 08:30 USD PCE Prices
  • 08:30 USD Real Consumer Spending (Q3) 
  • 08:30 USD Wholesale Inventories (MoM) (Oct) 1
  • 10:00 USD New Home Sales (MoM) (Oct)
  • 10:00 USD Richmond Manufacturing Index (Nov) 16
  • 10:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories
  • 12:00 USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks
  • 13:00 USD 7-Year Note Auction
  • 19:00 AUD HIA New Home Sales (MoM) (Oct) 
  • 20:30 JPY BoJ Board Member Masai Speaks

Thur Nov 29

  • 01:45 CHF GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
  • 02:45 EUR French Consumer Spending (MoM) (Oct)
  • 02:45 EUR French GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
  • 03:00 EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
  • 03:55 EUR German Eemployment Report (Nov)
  • 04:30 GBP BoE Consumer Credit (Oct) 
  • 05:00 EUR Business Climate (Nov)
  • 05:00 EUR Consumer Confidence (Nov)
  • 8:00 EUR German CPI (MoM) (Nov)
  • 08:30 USD Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Oct)
  • 08:30 USD PCE Deflator (MoM)
  • 08:30 USD Personal Income (MoM) (Oct)
  • 08:30 USD Personal Spending (MoM) (Oct)
  • 08:30 USD Real Personal Consumption (MoM) (Oct)
  • 08:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims
  • 08:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims
  • 08:30 USD Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.
  • 08:30 CAD Current Account (Q3)
  • 10:00 USD Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Oct)
  • 10:30 USD Natural Gas Storage
  • Tentative USD Dallas Fed PCE (Oct)
  • 14:00 USD Chicago Fed President Evans Speaks
  • 14:00 USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
  • 18:30 JPY Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (Nov)
  • 18:30 JPY Unemployment Rate (Oct)
  • 18:50 JPY Industrial Production (MoM) (Oct)
  • 19:01 GBP GfK Consumer Confidence (Nov)
  • 20:00 KRW Interest Rate Decision (Nov)
  • 20:00 CNY Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
  • 20:00 CNY Non-Manufacturing PMI (Nov)

Fri Nov 30

  • 00:00 JPY Construction Orders (YoY) (Oct)
  • 00:00 JPY Household Confidence (Nov)
  • 00:00 JPY Housing Starts (YoY) (Oct)
  • 02:00 EUR German Retail Sales  (MoM) (Oct)
  • 02:45 EUR French CPI (MoM)
  • 02:45 EUR French PPI (MoM)
  • 03:00 CHF KOF Leading Indicators (Nov) 
  • 05:00 EUR Italian CPI (MoM) (Nov)
  • 05:00 EUR CPI (YoY) (Nov)
  • 05:00 EUR ECB's Mersch Speaks
  • 05:00 EUR Unemployment Rate (Oct) 
  • 06:00 EUR Italian GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
  • 08:30 CAD GDP (QoQ) (MoM) (Sep) 
  • 08:30 CAD IPPI (MoM) (Oct)
  • 09:00 USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks
  • 09:45 USD Chicago PMI (Nov)
  • 11:00 CAD Budget Balance (Sep)
  • 13:00 USD U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
  • 15:30 CFTC Speculative net positions  

 

Notable Earnings Reports This Week

*EPS estimates via Morningstar where available

Monday Nov 26

Before Open

ALEAFIA HEALTH ALE DIANA SHIPPING DSX HUAMI CORP-ADR HMI ITURAN LOCATION ITRN JINKOSOLAR HLDG JKS PUXIN LTD-ADR NEW VIOMI TECHNOLGY VIOT

After Close

  • BETTER ONLN SOL BOSC BUCKLE INC BKE CORPORACION SA CAAP ENANTA PHARMA ENTA EXCO TECH LTD XTC FERROGLOBE PLC GSM MTS SYSTEMS MTSC STONECO LTD STNE

Tuesday Nov 27

Before Open

  • BANK OF NOVA SC BNS BANK OF NOVA-TS BNS CRACKER BARREL CBRL EATON VANCE EV EVOQUA WATR TEC AQUA HIBBET SPORTS HIBB KNOT OFFSHOR LP KNOP LAIX INC LAIX SEADRILL LTD SDRL TUNIU CORP-ADR TOUR YINTECH INVSTMT YIN

After Close

  • ALIMENT COU-NEW ATD ARCO PLATFORM ARCE BRIGHTVIEW HLDG BV CENTRAL GARDEN CENT CENTRAL GARDN-A CENTA DESTINY MDA-TS DSY DESTINY MEDIA DSNY FUWEI FILMS HLD FFHL GLOBAL CORD BLD CO GW PHARMA-ADR GWPH NUTANIX INC-A NTNX OOMA INC OOMA SALESFORCE.COM CRM STEIN MART INC SMRT VERSAPAY CORP VPY VOXELJET AG-ADR VJET

Wednesday Nov 21

Before Open

  • ANAPLAN INC PLAN INTL GRP ATKR BITAUTO HOLDNGS BITA BURLINGTON STRS BURL CHICOS FAS INC CHS DICKS SPRTG GDS DKS EVINE LIVE INC EVLV ICLICK INTERACT ICLK IEC ELECTRS NEW IEC J JILL INC JILL PINTEC TECH HLD PT REAL MATTERS REA REX AMERICAN RS REX ROYAL BANK CDA RY ROYAL BK CN-TS RY SINA CORP SINA SMUCKER JM SJM SPORTSMANS WRHS SPWH TIFFANY & CO TIF VERSABANK VB WEIBO CORP ADS WB

After Close

  • ASCENDIS PHARMA ASND BOX INC-A BOX DESCARTES SYS DSGX DESCARTES SY-TS DSG GOLUB CAPITAL GBDC GUESS INC GES I3 VERTICALS IIIV LA-Z-BOY INC LZB MONMOUTH RE CLA MNR POET TECH INC PTK POET TECH INC POETF SEMTECH CORP SMTC SHIFTPIXY INC PIXY SUNNIVA INC SNN TILLYS INC TLYS VEEVA SYSTEMS-A VEEV

Thursday Nov 29

Before Open

  • ABERCROMBIE ANF AMER WOODMARK AMWD BUILD-A-BEAR WK BBW CANTEL MED CORP CMD CDN IMPL BK CM CDN IMPL BK-TS CM DOLLAR TREE INC DLTR ENDAVA PLC DAVA EXPRESS INC EXPR HOEGH LNG PTNRS HMLP KIRKLANDS INC KIRK OAKTREE SPEC LD OCSL OAKTREE STR INC OCSI PATTERSON COS PDCO TECH DATA CORP TECD TITAN MACHINERY TITN TORONTO DOM BNK TD TORONTO DOM-TS TD YETI HOLDINGS YETI

After Close

  • AEROVIRONMENT AVAV AMBARELLA INC AMBA AMER SOFTWARE A AMSWA AMER SOFTWARE B ASWB AMTEC SYSTEMS ASYS CULP INC CULP DELL TECHNOLOGS DVMT GAMESTOP CORP GME HP INC HPQ NEW YORK & CO NWY PAGSEGURO DIGTL PAGS PALO ALTO NETWK PANW PHASEBIO PHARMA PHAS PVH CORP PVH RTW RETAILWINDS RTW SI-BONE INC SIBN SPLUNK INC SPLK UNIVL TECH INST UTI VMWARE INC-A VMW WORKDAY INC-A WDAY YEXT INC YEXT ZUORA INC ZUO

Friday Nov 30

Before Open

  • BRP INC DOOO BRP INC-TS DOO CITI TRENDS INC CTRN DESTINATION XL DXLG FANG HOLDINGS SFUN

After Close

  • NATUZZI SPA-ADR NTZ

Note these estimates and times are subject to change and for indication only. Trade and invest at your own risk.

Trade Smart!  

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