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 Risk Underestimate

FEAR NOT Brave Investors :

Thanksgiving, Trade Wars, Weather, and Natural gas

Volatilty in the energy markets this week reminded us of risk, not to follow the herd and to understand the fundamentals and technicals of your underlying asset.  Two things to note, the emotional danger of blindly falling in love with a stock or commodity, (anything really), was borne out with the $100 oil mantra and it's collapse. The need to follow a book talking one hit wonder is beyond us? The second was borne out by the violent move in natural gas. Here is an example of risk, potential and power.

Knovawave has been reminding us of the weekly triangle, it broke and boom. Then throw in non-specialists selling natural gas calls without delta management as weather continued to get colder. Put the lowest storage in 14 years, record LNG exports and a low volatilty pricing enviroment into the pot.

Understand your risk, watch the blown up funds and managers come out this week with the chestnuts, this wasnt ou'r fault and was so unpredictable. A lesson in greed, laziness and no responsibilty (here endeth the lesson). Watch weather, watch risk, for oil expect more OPEC chatter.  Remember you don't have to be in a trade!  We see mayhem with Brexit and those emerging markets continue to overhang, particularly the Fragile 5 and Argentina. Stay alert, expect the unexpected.

If you wanted to play in the big room at Vegas, you are living it.  Understand risk and the madness of crowds for your own sanity and wealth.

The week ahead will focus on Brexit, Italy and in the U.S. we get to see how rising mortgage rates have hurt affordability with homebuilders and the NAHB Housing Market Index. Trading wise we will see a slow down in volumes with Thanksgiving on Thursday in the U.S. Investors will get an idea of consumer health next week as the holiday shopping season gets under way with Black Friday sales, the day after Thanksgiving has been regarded as the traditional start of the holiday buying season.

In October the S&P 500  fell almost 7 percent and is up just 0.7 percent so far in November, on course for the biggest quarterly loss since the third quarter of 2015 and its worst fourth quarter performance in a decade. 

Earnings wise we are in the tail end of the reporting season. Continue to note the affect of Tariffs and the Chinese slowdown impact on demand and increasing costs. Higher raw materials costs, wages and interest rates are hanging over margin and earnings forecasts. Earnings to watch include Deere and big name retailers such as Best Buy (BBY) Gap (GPS), Target (TGT), Kohl's (KSS), Lowe’s Companies (LOW), TJX and Urban Outitters (URBN) with investors watching for any guidance for the holiday season. .

Earnings last week saw a mixed bag with modest surprises but some big price moves among NVidia, Applied Materials, Sonos and Walmart.

-comment section below data-

Geopolitical Tinderbox Radar

Italy CDS
Turkey Geopolitical

Last Week's Big Stories

 

The Week That Was - Last Weeks Recap

Earnings Reports

 

Stock Markets

Biggest Stock Winners and Losers Last Week*

 MW Week Top 5 16 9 18

 US Stock Indices Performance

 MW US Perf 11 16 18

  S&P 500

MW SPX W 11 16 18 

  Amazon $AMZN

 MW AMZN W 11 16 18 2

Fixed Interest

US Yield Curve & SPX

 MW SPX Yield 1116 18

10 Year Treasury Note

 MW AMZN W 11 16 18

Energy and Commodities

US Crude Oil (WTI)

 MW WTI D 11 16 18

US Natural Gas (Henry Hub)

 MW NG W 11 16 18

Baltic Dry Index (BDI)

  MW BDI W 11 16 18

Currency Markets

 Australian Dollar (AUDUSD) 

 MW AUD W 11 16 18

 New Zealand Dollar (NZDUSD)

 MW NZD W 11 16 18

Canadian Dollar (USDCAD)

 MW CAD W 11 16 18

Euro (EURUSD)

 MW EUR W 11 16 18

EuroPound (EURGBP)

 MW EURGBP D 11 16 18

Japanese Yen (USDJPY)

 MW JPY W 11 16 18

Argentine Peso (USARS)

 MW ARS D 11 16 18

Turkish Lire (USDTRY)

 MW TRY D 11 16 18

Bitcoin

 MW BTC W 11 16 18

 

The Week Ahead

Key US Economic and Central Bank Events This Week

Mon Nov 19

  • 04:00 EUR Current Account (Sep)
  • Tentative EUR Eurogroup Meetings
  • Tentative EUR German Buba Monthly Report
  • 10:00 USD NAHB Housing Market Index (Nov)
  • 10:45 USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks
  • 11:30 USD 3-Month Bill Auction
  • 11:30 USD 6-Month Bill Auction
  • 19:30 AUD RBA Meeting Minutes

Tues Nov 20

  • All Day Holiday Brazil - Black Awareness Day
  • 01:30 EUR French Unemployment Rate (Q3)
  • 02:00 CHF Trade Balance (Oct)
  • 02:00 EUR German PPI (MoM) (Oct)
  • 03:20 AUD RBA Governor Lowe Speaks
  • 05:00 GBP BoE Gov Carney Speaks
  • 05:00 GBP Inflation Report Hearings
  • Tentative USD OPEC Meeting
  • Tentative EUR EU Finance Ministers Meeting
  • 08:30 USD Building Permits (MoM) (Oct) 
  • 08:30 USD Housing Starts (MoM) (Oct) 
  • 08:55 USD Redbook (MoM) (YoY)
  • Tentative NZD GlobalDairyTrade Price Index
  • 10:00 EUR German Buba President Weidmann Speaks
  • 11:30 USD 4-Week Bill Auction
  • 11:30 USD 8-Week Bill Auction
  • 12:45 CAD BoC Gov Council Member Wilkins Speaks
  • 16:30 USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
  • 17:00 CAD BoC Gov Council Member Lane Speaks
  • 18:30 AUD MI Leading Index (MoM)
  • 23:30 JPY All Industries Activity Index (MoM)

Wed Nov 21

  • 07:00 US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
  • 07:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW)
  • 07:00 US MBA Purchase Index 
  • 07:00 US Mortgage Market Index
  • 07:00 US Mortgage Refinance Index
  • 08:30 USD Cap Goods Ship Non Defense Ex Air (MoM)
  • 08:30 USD Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Oct)
  • 08:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims
  • 08:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims
  • 08:30 USD Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.
  • 08:30 CAD Wholesale Sales (MoM) (Sep)
  • 10:00 USD Existing Home Sales (Oct)
  • 10:00 USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Nov)
  • 10:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories
  • 11:00 USD Natural Gas Storage
  • 13:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 
  • 13:00 USD 10-Year TIPS Auction
  • 18:30 JPY National  CPI (MoM) 
  • 18:50 JPY Foreign Bonds Buying
  • 18:50 JPY Foreign Investments in Japanese Stocks 

Thur Nov 22

  • All Day Holiday U.S. - Thanksgiving Day
  • 07:30 EUR ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting
  • 08:00 ZAR Interest Rate Decision (Nov) 
  • 08:30 CAD Corporate Profits (QoQ)
  • 09:45 CAD BoC Gov Council Member Wilkins Speaks
  • 10:00 EUR Consumer Confidence (Nov)
  • 10:30 CAD BoC Financial System Review
  • 12:00 EUR ECB's Mersch Speaks
  • 15:55 GBP BoE MPC Member Saunders Speaks
  • 19:30 JPY Manufacturing PMI (Nov)

Fri Nov 23

  • All Day Holiday Japan - Labour Thanksgiving Day
  • All Day Holiday India - Gurunanak Jayanti Holiday '
  • United States - Thanksgiving Day - Early close at 13:00
  • 02:00 EUR German GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
  • 03:15 EUR French Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
  • 03:15 EUR French Markit Composite PMI (Nov)
  • 03:15 EUR French Services PMI (Nov)
  • 03:30 EUR German Composite PMI (Nov)
  • 03:30 EUR German Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
  • 03:30 EUR German Services PMI (Nov)
  • 04:00 EUR Italian Trade Balance Non-EU (Oct)
  • 04:00 EUR Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
  • 04:00 EUR Markit Composite PMI (Nov) 
  • 04:00 EUR Services PMI (Nov)
  • 08:30 CAD Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep)
  • 08:30 CAD CPI (MoM) (Oct)
  • 09:45 USD Manufacturing PMI (Nov) 
  • 09:45 USD Markit Composite PMI (Nov) 
  • 09:45 USD Services PMI (Nov)
  • 15:30 CFTC Speculative net positions  

 

Notable Earnings Reports This Week

*EPS estimates via Morningstar where available

Monday Nov 19

Before Open

  • DOLPHIN ENTMNT DLPN GREENTREE HOSPT GHG JD.COM INC-ADR JD JIANPU TECH-ADR JT LEJU HOLDINGS LEJU RENESOLA LT-ADR SOL SPECTRUM BR-HLD SPB

After Close

  • AGILENT TECH A BEACON ROOFING BECN BROOKS AUTOMATN BRKS DEALNET CAPITAL DLS GUARDANT HEALTH GH GWG HOLDINGS GWGH INTUIT INC INTU JACK IN THE BOX JACK KULICKE & SOFFA KLIC L BRANDS INC LB LIMBACH HOLDNGS LMB NIU TECH-ADR NIU NOAH HLDGS LTD NOAH NUANCE COMM INC NUAN PURE STORAGE PSTG TARENA INTL-ADR TEDU URBAN OUTFITTER URBN

Tuesday Nov 20

Before Open

  • ANALOG DEVICES ADI AURORA MOBILE JG BARNES & NOBLE BKS BEST BUY BBY CAMPBELL SOUP CPB DYCOM INDS DY ELBIT SYSTEMS ESLT GAZIT GLOBE LTD GZT GOLDEN OCEAN GP GOGL HAMILTON THORNE HTL HORMEL FOODS CP HRL JACOBS ENGIN GR JEC KOHLS CORP KSS LOWES COS LOW MAXIMUS INC MMS MEDTRONIC MDT NAVIOS MARI HLD NM NJ RESOURCES NJR PINDUODUO INC PDD PPDAI GROUP-ADR PPDF ROSS STORES ROST SEADRILL PTNRS SDLP SHIP FIN INTL SFL STAGE STORES SSI TARGET CORP TGT TJX COS INC NEW TJX UXIN LTD-ADR UXIN VASCULAR BIOGNC VBLT WESTON GEORGE WNGRF WESTON GEORG-TS WN

After Close

  • 21VIANET GP-ADR VNET AUTODESK INC ADSK BILIBILI INC BILI BJS WHOLESALE BJ CALERES INC CAL CHINA DISTANCE DL CHINA RAPID FIN XRF ESTERLINE TECHN ESL FANHUA INC FANH FOOT LOCKER INC FL GAP INC GPS KEYSIGHT TECH KEYS LATAM AIRLINES LTM MEDICURE INC MCUJF MEDICURE INC-TS MPH QAD INC QADB QAD INC-A QADA SEA LTD-ADR SE STAR BULK CARRS SBLK

Wednesday Nov 21

Before Open

  • ASTRONOVA INC ALOT BAOZUN INC BZUN CHEETAH MBL-ADR CMCM DAKTRONICS INC DAKT DEERE & CO DE METRO INC MRU PARTNER COMM PTNR QUIDAN INC QD BIOSYENT INC RX

After Close

  • ROGERS SUGAR RSI SOC QUIMICA MIN SQM CELLCOM ISRAEL CEL

Thursday Nov 22

Before Open

  • All Day Holiday U.S. - Thanksgiving Day

After Close

  • All Day Holiday U.S. - Thanksgiving Day

Friday Nov 23

Before Open

  • DIANA CONTAINER DCIX SUNLANDS ONLINE STG VALENER INC VNR

After Close

  • Nil

Note these estimates and times are subject to change and for indication only. Trade and invest at your own risk.

Trade Smart!  

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