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Survival on a drip 

FEAR NOT Brave Investors :

Trade Wars, Trump, Yields and Earnings

Rationality hit the stockmarket last week, the S&P 500 lost over 5 percent in two days, the Nasdaq on Wednesday had it's biggest loss since 2011, China’s stocks are now 30 percent from the January highs and Taiwan’s stock index  futures had their worst day since 2000. The headwinds we had been harping on about hit a saturated long apathetic market. Four year high oil, tightening Fed, rising dollar, escalating trade war and a slowing China.

Throw in renewed doubts over Italy’s debt and Donald Trump’s attacks on the “loco” Fed, Brexit, and the extreme partisan division of the US. Iran, OPEC’s No. 3 producer is due to be hit by U.S. sanctions that take effect on Nov. 4.  The previous week the Fed hiked rates and promised more,  and we had a much weaker NFP and a widening trade deficit. Oh and those emerging markets continue to overhang, particularly the Fragile 5 and Argentina. 

Again rationality was not a feature of the week with valuations in the stratosphere and no fear of risk. Real earnings are actually negative year on year with the stock market at lofty levels and the Fed raising rates. I repeat, if you wanted to play in the big room at Vegas, you are living it.  Understand risk and the madness of crowds for your own sanity and wealth.

The week ahead starts off with US Retail sales and expectations for Q3 GDP from them as consumer spending will contribute to the Federal Reserve's outlook on the US economy and their path of monetary policy.

Earnings wise we will be watching the affect of Tariffs and the Chinese slowdown impact on demand and increasing costs. Higher raw materials costs, wages and interest rates are hanging over margin and earnings forecasts. Prospects for 2019 have a huge question mark. EPS are expected to grow 10% with sales up 5%. S&P Capital IQ has the S&P 500 trading at just under 18x adjusted earnings estimates for 2018 or just over 16x adjusted earnings estimates for 2019.

Notable earnings out next week include: Bank of America (BAC) , United Health (UNH), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Goldman Sachs (GS), Morgan Stanley (MS), Netflix (NFLX), IBM (IBM), United (UAL), CSX (CSX), Lam Research (LRCX), Abbot Labs (ABT), US Bancorp (USB), Alcoa (AA), Novartis (NVS), Phillip Morris (PM), Nucor (NUE), SAP (SAP), Blackstone (BX), American Express (AXP), PayPal (PYPL), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), Procter & Gamble (PG), Honeywell (HON) and Schlumberger (SLB).

-comment section below data-

Geopolitical Tinderbox Radar

Italy CDS
Turkey Geopolitical

Last Week's Big Stories

The Week That Was - Last Weeks Recap

Earnings Reports

 

Stock Markets

Biggest Stock Winners and Losers Last Week*

 MW TOP5 W 10 13 18

 US Stock Indices Performance

 MW US Perf W 10 13 18

  S&P 500

MW SP W 10 13 18 

  Amazon $AMZN

 MW AMZN W 10 13 18

Fixed Interest

US Yield Curve & SPX

 MW SPX Yield W 10 13 18

10 Year Treasury Note

 MW TNX W 10 13 18

Energy and Commodity Markets

US Crude Oil (WTI)

 MW WTI W 10 13 18

US Natural Gas (Henry Hub)

 MW NG W 10 13 18

Baltic Dry Index (BDI)

 

 MW BDI W 10 13 18

Currency Markets

 Australian Dollar (AUDUSD)

MW AUDUSD W 10 13 18 

 New Zealand Dollar (NZDUSD)

MW NZDUSD W 10 12 18 

Canadian Dollar (USDCAD)

 MW USDCAD W 10 13 18

Euro (EURUSD)

 MW EURUSD W 10 13 18

EuroPound (EURGBP)

MW EURGBP W 10 13 18 

Japanese Yen (USDJPY)

 MW USDJPY W 10 13 18

Argentine Peso (USARS)

 MW USDARS D 10 13 18

Turkish Lire (USDTRY)

 MW USDTRY D 10 13 18

Bitcoin

 MW BTC W 10 12 18

 

The Week Ahead

Key US Economic and Central Bank Events This Week

Mon Oct 15

  • 00:30 JPY Capacity Utilization (MoM) (Aug)
  • 00:30 JPY Industrial Production (MoM) (Aug)
  • Tentative EUR German Import Price Index (MoM) (Aug) 
  • 08:30 USD Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep)
  • 08:30 USD NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 
  • 10:00 USD Business Inventories (MoM) (Aug)
  • 10:30 CAD BoC Business Outlook Survey
  • 11:30 USD 3-Month Bill Auction
  • 11:30 USD 6-Month Bill Auction 2.380%
  • 17:45 NZD CPI (YoY) (Q3) 
  • 20:30 AUD RBA Meeting Minutes
  • 21:30 CNY CPI (MoM) (Sep) 
  • 21:30 CNY PPI (YoY) (Sep)

Tues Oct 16

  • 04:30 GBP Employment Change 3
  • 04:30 GBP Unemployment Rate (Aug)
  • 05:00 EUR Italian CPI (MoM) (Sep)
  • 05:00 EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Oct)
  • 05:00 EUR Trade Balance (Aug)
  • 05:00 EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment
  • 06:00 EUR Italian Trade Balance (Aug)
  • 08:30 CAD Foreign Securities Purchases (Aug)
  • 08:55 USD Redbook (MoM)
  • 09:15 USD Capacity Utilization Rate (Sep)
  • 09:15 USD Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep)
  • 10:00 USD JOLTs Job Openings
  • 10:00 USD NAHB Housing Market Index (Oct)
  • Tentative NZD GlobalDairyTrade Price Index
  • 11:30 USD 4-Week Bill Auction
  • 11:30 USD 8-Week Bill Auction
  • 16:00 USD TIC Net Long-Term Transactions (Aug)
  • 16:30 USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock

Wed Oct 17

  • All Day Holiday Hong Kong - Chung Yeung Day
  • 04:30 GBP BoE FPC Meeting Minutes
  • 04:30 GBP CPI  (Sep) 
  • 04:30 GBP PPI (Sep)
  • 05:00 EUR CPI (Sep) 
  • 07:00 US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
  • 07:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW)
  • 07:00 US MBA Purchase Index 
  • 07:00 US Mortgage Market Index
  • 07:00 US Mortgage Refinance Index
  • 08:30 USD Building Permits (Sep)
  • 08:30 USD Housing Starts (MoM) (Sep)
  • 08:30 CAD Manufacturing Sales (MoM) (Aug)
  • 10:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories
  • 14:00 USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
  • 19:50 JPY  Trade Balance (Sep)
  • 20:30 AUD Employment Report (Sep)
  • 20:30 AUD NAB Quarterly Business Confidence
  • 21:00 KRW Interest Rate Decision (Oct) 

Thur Oct 18

  • All Day Holiday India - Dasara
  • 04:30 GBP Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep)
  • 05:00 ZAR Gold Production (YoY) (Aug)
  • 08:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims
  • 08:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims
  • 08:30 USD Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.
  • 08:30 USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Oct)
  • 08:30 CAD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
  • 09:00 USD FOMC Member Bullard Speaks
  • 10:30 USD Natural Gas Storage
  • 13:00 USD 30-Year Bond Auction 
  • 19:30 JPY National Core CPI (YoY) (Sep)
  • 22:00 CNY Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) (Sep) 
  • 22:00 CNY GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
  • 22:00 CNY Industrial Production (YoY) (Sep)
  • 22:00 CNY Retail Sales (YoY) (Sep)
  • 22:00 CNY Chinese Unemployment Rate 
  • 22:00 CNY NBS Press Conference 

Fri Oct 19

  • 02:35 JPY BoJ Governor Kuroda Speaks
  • 04:00 EUR Current Account (Aug)
  • 08:30 CAD CPI (MoM) (Sep)
  • 08:30 CAD Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug)
  • 09:00 USD FOMC Member Kaplan Speaks
  • 10:00 USD Existing Home Sales (Sep)
  • 12:00 USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
  • 13:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 
  • 15:30 CFTC Speculative net positions  

 

Notable Earnings Reports This Week

*EPS estimates via Morningstar where available

Monday Oct 15

Before Open

After Close

  • CCA INDUSTRIES CAW
  • FIRST DEFIANCE FDEF

Tuesday Oct 16

Before Open

  • BLACKROCK INC BLK
  • COMERICA INC CMA
  • DOMINOS PIZZA DPZ
  • ENZO BIOCHEM ENZ
  • FIRST HRZN NATL FHN
  • GOLDMAN SACHS GS
  • GRAINGER W W GWW
  • HUNT (JB) TRANS JBHT
  • INFOSYS LTD INFY
  • JOHNSON & JOHNS JNJ
  • MERCANTILE BANK MBWM
  • MORGAN STANLEY MS
  • PROGRESSIVE COR PGR
  • PROLOGIS INC PLD
  • UNITEDHEALTH GP UNH

After Close

  • ADTRAN INC ADTN
  • CREE INC CREE
  • CSX CORP CSX
  • DEL TACO RSTRNT TACO
  • FULTON FINL FULT
  • HANCOCK HLDG CO HWC
  • HEALTHCARE SERV HCSG
  • HOPE BANCORP HOPE
  • INTERACTIVE BRK IBKR
  • INTL BUS MACH IBM
  • LAM RESEARCH LRCX
  • LEGACY TX FINL LTXB
  • MARTEN TRANS MRTN
  • NETFLIX INC NFLX
  • PINNACLE FIN PT
  • PNFP UNITED CONT HLD
  • UAL UNITED FIN BCP UBNK
  • UNIVL FST PRODS UFPI
  • UTD COMM FIN CP UCFC

Wednesday Oct 17

Before Open

  • ABBOTT LABS ABT
  • ASML HOLDING NV ASML
  • BADGER METER BMI
  • M&T BANK CORP MTB
  • MGIC INVSTMT CP MTG
  • NEUROMETRIX INC NURO
  • NORTHERN TRUST NTRS
  • UNIFIRST CORP UNF
  • UNION BANKSHARS UBSH
  • US BANCORP USB
  • WINNEBAGO WGO
  • AKZO NOBEL NV AKZOY

After Close

  • ALCOA CORP AA
  • BANCORPSOUTH BK  BXS
  • BERKSHIRE HILLS  BHLB
  • BOSTON PRIV FIN BPFH
  • BRANDYWINE RT BDN
  • CATHAY GENL BCP CATY
  • COHEN&STRS INC CNS
  • CONSOL TOMOKA CTO
  • CROWN CASTLE CCI
  • CROWN HLDGS INC CCK
  • EAGLE BCP INC EGBN
  • GREAT SOUTH BCP GSBC
  • HERITAGE-CRYSTL HCCI
  • KAISER ALUMINUM KALU
  • KINDER MORGAN KMI
  • NVE CORP NVEC
  • PREFERRED BANK PFBC
  • RLI CORP RLI
  • SERVISFIRST BCS SFBS
  • SL GREEN REALTY SLG
  • STEEL DYNAMICS STLD
  • TEXAS CAP BCSHS TCBI
  • THESCORE INC-A SCR
  • TRISTATE CP HLD TSC
  • TRIUMPH BANCORP TBK
  • UMPQUA HLDGS CP
  • UMPQ UTD RENTALS INC URI
  • WINTRUST FINL WTFC

Thursday Oct 18

Before Open

  • ALLIANCE DATA ADS
  • BANK OF NY MELL BK
  • BB&T CORP BBT
  • BLACKSTONE GRP BX
  • CENTL EUR MEDIA CETV
  • CHART INDUSTRIE GTLS
  • COMP TASK CTG
  • DANAHER CORP DHR
  • DOVER CORP DOV
  • EAST WEST BC EWBC
  • ERICSSON LM ADR ERIC
  • GENUINE PARTS GPC
  • HOME BANCSHARES HOMB
  • INSTEEL INDS IIIN
  • KEYCORP NEW KEY
  • LINDSAY CORP LNN 
  • MEDIDATA SOLUTN MDSO
  • NOVARTIS AG-ADR NVS
  • NUCOR CORP NUE
  • PHILIP MORRIS PM
  • POOL CORP POOL
  • PPG INDS INC PPG
  • S&T BANCORP INC STBA
  • SANDY SPRING SASR
  • SAP SE SAP
  • SNAP-ON INC SNA
  • SONOCO PRODUCTS SON
  • TAIWAN SEMI-ADR TSM
  • TEXTRON INC TXT
  • TILE SHOP HLDGS TTS
  • TRAVELERS COS TRV
  • WABCO HOLDINGS WBC
  • WEBSTER FINL CP WBS
  • PETROLEUM GEO PGSVY

After Close

  • AMER EXPRESS CO AXP
  • ASSOC BANC CORP ASB
  • ATLASSIAN CP-A TEAM
  • BANK OZK OZK
  • CDN PAC RLWY CP
  • CDN PAC RLWY-TS CP
  • CELANESE CORP CE
  • E TRADE FINL CP ETFC
  • EASTGROUP PPTYS EGP
  • ENTEGRA FINL CP ENFC
  • EXPONENT INC EXPO
  • FIRST FIN BC-OH FFBC
  • GLACIER BANCORP GBCI
  • INDEP BK MASS INDB
  • INTUITIVE SURG ISRG
  • LIMELIGHT NETWK LLNW 
  • PAYPAL HOLDINGS PYPL
  • PEOPLES UTD FIN PBCT
  • PZENA INVESTMNT PZN
  • SB FINANCIAL GP SBFG
  • VICOR CORP VICR
  • WD 40 CO WDFC
  • WERNER ENTRPRS WERN
  • WESTERN ALLIANC WAL

Friday Oct 19

Before Open

  • AMERIS BANCORP ABCB
  • CITIZENS FIN GP CFG
  • CLEVELAND-CLIFF CLF
  • CORUS ENTMT-B CJREF
  • CORUS ENTMT-TS CJR
  • EURONET WORLDWD EEFT
  • GENTEX CORP GNTX
  • HONEYWELL INTL HON
  • IBERIABANK CORP IBKC
  • INTERPUBLIC GRP IPG
  • KANSAS CITY SOU KSU
  • MANPOWER INC WI MAN
  • MOBILE MINI INC MINI
  • OFG BANCORP OFG
  • PROCTER & GAMBL PG
  • ROGERS COM B-TS RCI
  • ROGERS COMM CLB RCI
  • SCHLUMBERGER LT SLB
  • SENSIENT TECH SXT
  • STATE ST CORP STT SUNTRUST BKS STI
  • SYNCHRONY FIN SYF
  • V F CORP VFC
  • VOLVO AB-B VLVLY

After Close

  • Nil

Note these estimates and times are subject to change and for indication only. Trade and invest at your own risk.

Trade Smart!  

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