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 Debt

FEAR NOT Brave Investors :

Trade Wars, Trump, Yields and Banks

Stocks showed some softness last week, not a surprise given trade wars, Brexit, Italy and the extreme partisan division of the US last week over SOTUS. It was Dejas Vu for Elon Musk as he trolled the SEC after agreeing to a settlement (one has to wonder about his mental fitness)  Tesla after CEO Musk was sued by the SEC. Brent oil hit a four year high as blood speculators sense angst over expected disruptions from Iran, OPEC’s No. 3 producer, due to the U.S. sanctions that take effect on Nov. 4. Iran but quickly reversed and WTI gave a lot back after another manic run. Last week the Fed hiked rates and promised more, what this means is spooking the savvy players with a much weaker NFP and a widening trade deficit.

The Australian dollar hit a 4 1/2 year low despite record exports underlying the fragility of the trade war. Oh and those emerging markets continue to overhang, particularly the Fragile 5 and Argentina. 

Again rationality was not a feature of the week with valuations in the stratosphere and no fear of risk. Real earnings are actually negative year on year with the stock market at lofty levels and the Fed raising rates. I repeat, if you wanted to play in the big room at Vegas, you are living it.  Understand risk and the madness of crowds for your own sanity and wealth.

The week ahead starts off with Chinese markets opening on Monday after a week long-holiday, the yuan and other emerging currencies are bruised with heavy losses against the dollar. Next week’s data by the Mortgage Bankers Association on home loan applications are in focus after 10-year benchmark borrowing costs soared to their highest since May 2011 with 10-year Treasury yields near a seven-year high, pushing borrowing costs on U.S. 30-year mortgages up 10 to 15 basis points by the upcoming week. Brazil is holding its most divisive election in memory with far-right presidential candidate Jair Bolsonaro lset to take a commanding first-round lead.  

Earnings wise we have Delta Airlines, Walgreens and banking giants PNC, J.P. Morgan, Citigroup and Wells Fargo among the names reporting.

-comment section below data-

Geopolitical Tinderbox Radar


Turkey Geopolitical

Last Week's Big Stories

The Week That Was - Last Weeks Recap

 

Earnings Reports

 

Stock Markets

Biggest Stock Winners and Losers Last Week*

 MW TOP5 W 10 5 18

 US Stock Indices Performance

 MW US Perf W 10 5 18

  S&P 500

 MW SP W 10 5 18

  Amazon $AMZN

 MW AMZN W 10 6 18

Fixed Interest

US Yield Curve & SPX

 MW SPX Yield W 10 6 18

10 Year Treasury Note

 MW TNX W 10 6 18

Energy and Commodity Markets

US Crude Oil (WTI)

 MW WTI W 10 6 18

US Natural Gas (Henry Hub)

 MW NG W 10 6 18

Baltic Dry Index (BDI)

 MW BDI W 10 6 18

 

Currency Markets

 Australian Dollar (AUDUSD)

 MW AUDUSD W 10 6 18

 New Zealand Dollar (NZDUSD)

 MW NZDUSD W 10 5 18

Canadian Dollar (USDCAD)

 MW USDCAD W 10 6 18

Euro (EURUSD)

 MW EURUSD W 10 6 18

EuroPound (EURGBP)

MW EURGBP W 10 6 18 

Japanese Yen (USDJPY)

 MW USDJPY W 10 6 18

Argentine Peso (USARS)

 MW USDARS D 10 6 18

Turkish Lire (USDTRY)

 MW USDTRY D 10 6 18

Bitcoin

 MW BTC W 10 5 18

 

The Week Ahead

Key US Economic and Central Bank Events This Week

Mon Oct 8

  • All Day Holiday Canada - Thanksgiving Day
  • All Day Holiday Japan - Health-Sports Day
  • All Day Holiday US - Columbus Day (Banks, Bonds closed; Stockmarket open)
  • 02:00 EUR German Industrial Production (MoM) (Aug)
  • 04:00 CNY FX Reserves (USD)
  • 10:00 USD CB Employment Trends Index (Sep) 
  • 20:30 AUD NAB Business Confidence (Sep)

Tues Oct 9

  • All Day Holiday South Korea - Hangul Day
  • 02:00 German Trade Balance (Aug) 
  • 06:00 USD NFIB Small Business Optimism (Sep)
  • 08:15 CAD Housing Starts (Sep) 
  • 08:55 USD Redbook (MoM)
  • 10:00 USD Chicago Fed President Evans Speaks
  • 10:35 GBP BoE MPC Member Broadbent Speaks
  • 11:30 USD 3-Month Bill Auction
  • 11:30 USD 4-Week Bill Auction
  • 11:30 USD 52-Week Bill Auction
  • 11:30 USD 6-Month Bill Auction
  • 14:00 CAD BoC Gov Council Member Wilkins Speaks
  • 19:30 AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment (Oct)
  • 19:50 JPY Core Machinery Orders (MoM) (Aug) 
  • 21:15 USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks
  • 22:35 USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks

Wed Oct 10

  • 02:45 EUR French Industrial Production (MoM) (Aug)
  • 04:00 EUR Italian Industrial Production (MoM) (Aug)
  • 04:00 EUR Italian Industrial Production (YoY) (Aug) 
  • 04:30 GBP Industrial Production (MoM) (Aug)
  • 04:30 GBP Trade Balance (Aug)
  • 05:00 GBP BoE MPC Member Haldane Speaks
  • 07:00 US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
  • 07:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW)
  • 07:00 US MBA Purchase Index 
  • 07:00 US Mortgage Market Index
  • 07:00 US Mortgage Refinance Index
  • 08:30 USD PPI (MoM) (Sep)
  • 08:30 CAD Building Permits (MoM) (Aug)
  • 08:55 USD Redbook (MoM) 0.3%
  • 10:00 USD Wholesale Inventories (MoM) (Aug)
  • 12:15 USD Chicago Fed President Evans Speaks
  • 13:00 USD 10-Year Note Auction
  • 13:00 USD 3-Year Note Auction
  • 16:30 USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
  • 18:00 USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
  • 18:30 AUD RBA Assist Gov Ellis Speaks
  • 20:00 AUD MI Inflation Expectations
  • 23:35 JPY 30-Year JGB Auction

Thur Oct 11

  • 02:45 EUR French CPI (MoM) (Sep)
  • 03:00 EUR Spanish CPI (MoM) (Sep)
  • 05:30 ZAR Gold Production (YoY) (Aug)
  • 05:30 ZAR Mining Production (Aug)
  • 06:45 GBP MPC Member Vlieghe Speaks
  • 07:20 USD OPEC Monthly Report
  • 07:30 EUR ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting
  • 08:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims
  • 08:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims
  • 08:30 USD Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.
  • 08:30 USD Real Earnings (MoM) (Sep)\
  • 08:30 USD Core CPI (MoM) (Sep)
  • 08:30 CAD New Housing Price Index (MoM) (Aug)
  • 10:30 USD Natural Gas Storage
  • 11:00 USD Cleveland CPI (MoM) (Sep)
  • 11:00 USD Crude Oil Inventories
  • 12:00 USD WASDE Report
  • 13:00 USD 30-Year Bond Auction
  • 14:00 USD Federal Budget Balance
  • 17:30 NZD Business NZ PMI (Sep) 52.0
  • 20:30 AUD Home Loans (MoM) (Aug)
  • 20:30 AUD RBA Financial Stability Review
  • Tentative CNY New Loans
  • Tentative CNY Outstanding Loan Growth (YoY) 

Fri Oct 12

  • All Day Holiday Brazil - Our Lady of Aparecida Day
  • Tentative CNY Trade Balance (USD) (Sep)
  • Tentative USD IEA Monthly Report
  • 05:00 EUR Industrial Production (MoM) (Aug)
  • 08:30 USD Export Price Index (MoM) (Sep)
  • 08:30 USD Import Price Index (MoM) (Sep)
  • 09:30 USD Chicago Fed President Evans Speaks
  • 10:00 USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Oct)
  • 12:30 USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
  • 13:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 
  • 15:30 CFTC Speculative net positions  

 

Notable Earnings Reports This Week

*EPS estimates via Morningstar where available

Monday Oct 8

Before Open

  • Columbus Day No Earnings Releases Scheduled

After Close

Tuesday Oct 9

Before Open

  • AZZ INC AZZ
  • HELEN OF TROY HELE

After Close

  • IDT CORP-CL B IDT

Wednesday Oct 10

Before Open

  • FASTENAL FAST
  • MTY FOOD GROUP MTY

After Close

  • RICHARDSON ELEC RELL
  • SARATOGA INVEST SAR
  • VOXX INTL CP VOXX

Thursday Oct 11

Before Open

  • COMMERCE BANCSH CBSH
  • DELTA AIR LINES DAL
  • ENDAVA PLC DAVA
  • WALGREENS BAI WBA

After Close

  • EXFO INC EXFO
  • EXFO INC-TS EXF

Friday Oct 5

Before Open

  • APHRIA INC APHQF
  • APHRIA INC-TS APH
  • CITIGROUP INC C
  • FIRST REP BK SF FRC
  • JPMORGAN CHASE JPM 
  • PNC FINL SVC CP PNC 
  • WELLS FARGO-NEW WFC 

After Close

  • Nil

Note these estimates and times are subject to change and for indication only. Trade and invest at your own risk.

Trade Smart!  

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