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 Wilderbeest

FEAR NOT Brave Investors :

Trade Wars, Trump, SOTUS and Jobs

Stocks again shrugged off trade wars, Brexit, Italy and the extreme partisan division of the US last week for the most part. Two stocks that came under fire were Tesla after CEO Musk was sued by the SEC and Facebook after another huge security breach. Brent oil hit a four year high as blood speculators sense angst over Iran and WTI rose despite record production and against President Trump's wishes. The Fed hiked rates and promised more, all this after the launch of new tariffs on China and an OPEC+ meeting. The no fear mantra beats on.

Still no NAFTA agreement. Oh and those emerging markets continue to overhang, particularly the Fragile 5 and Argentina. 

Again rationality was not a feature of the week with valuations in the stratosphere and no fear of risk. Real earnings are actually negative year on year with the stock market at lofty levels and the Fed raising rates. I repeat, if you wanted to play in the big room at Vegas, you are living it.  Understand risk and the madness of crowds for your own sanity and wealth.

The week ahead starts the month off with European, Canadian and U.S. ISM Index giving us some insight on how the  manufacturing and service sectors are faring. We have multiple Fed speakers and expect the Supreme Court Justice political Wilderbeest gouge to grow a leg. We finish off with a potentially U.S. worrisome payroll report with rising rates and tariff impacts. Brexit and Italy are still bubbling along.

Earnings wise we have Stitch Fix, PepsiCo, Paychex, Lennar, Constellation Brands and Costco among the names reporting.

-comment section below data-

Geopolitical Tinderbox Radar


Turkey Geopolitical

Last Week's Big Stories

The Week That Was - Last Weeks Recap

 

Earnings Reports

 

Stock Markets

Biggest Stock Winners and Losers Last Week*

 MW TOP5 W 9 29 18

 US Stock Indices Performance

 MW US Perf W 9 29 18

  S&P 500

 MW SP W 9 29 18

  Amazon $AMZN

 MW AMZN D 9 29 18

Fixed Interest

US Yield Curve & SPX

 MW SPX Yield W 9 29 18

10 Year Treasury Note

 MW TNX W 9 29 18

Energy and Commodity Markets

US Crude Oil (WTI)

 MW WTI W 9 29 18

US Natural Gas (Henry Hub)

 MW NG W 9 29 18

Baltic Dry Index (BDI)

 MW BDI W 9 29 18

 

Currency Markets

 Australian Dollar (AUDUSD)

MW AUDUSD W 9 29 18 

 New Zealand Dollar (NZDUSD)

 MW NZDUSD W 9 29 18

Canadian Dollar (USDCAD)

MW USDCAD W 9 29 18

Euro (EURUSD)

MW EURUSD W 9 29 18 

EuroPound (EURGBP)

 MW EURGBP W 9 29 18

Japanese Yen (USDJPY)

 MW USDJPY W 9 29 18

Argentine Peso (USARS)

 MW USDARS D 9 29 18

Turkish Lire (USDTRY)

 MW USDTRY D 9 29 18

Bitcoin

 MW BTC W 9 29 18

 

The Week Ahead

Key US Economic and Central Bank Events This Week

Monday Oct 1

  • All Day Holiday Hong Kong - National Day
  • All Day Holiday - Australia - Day of The Rooster, Queen's Birthday (Queensland), Labour Day (ACT, NSW, SA)
  • All Day Holiday China - National Day
  • 02:00 EUR German Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug)
  • 03:45 EUR Italian Manufacturing PMI (Sep)
  • 03:50 EUR French Manufacturing PMI (Sep)
  • 03:50 EUR German Manufacturing PMI (Sep)
  • 04:00 EUR Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate (Aug)
  • 04:00 EUR Manufacturing PMI (Sep)
  • 04:30 GBP Manufacturing PMI (Sep)
  • Tentative EUR Eurogroup Meetings
  • 09:00 USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
  • 09:30 CAD RBC Manufacturing PMI (Sep)
  • 09:45 USD Manufacturing PMI (Sep)
  • 10:00 USD Construction Spending (MoM) (Aug) 
  • 10:00 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Sep)
  • 11:30 USD 3-Month Bill Auction
  • 11:30 USD 6-Month Bill Auction
  • 12:15 USD FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks 

Tues Oct 2

  • All Day Holiday China - National Day
  • All Day Holiday India - Mahatma Gandhi Jayanthi
  • 00:30 AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision (Oct)
  • 00:30 AUD RBA Rate Statement
  • 02:30 AUD Commodity Prices (YoY) 6.7%
  • 04:30 GBP BoE FPC Meeting Minutes
  • 04:30 GBP Construction PMI (Sep)
  • 05:00 EUR PPI (MoM) (Aug)
  • Tentative EUR EU Finance Ministers Meeting
  • Tentative NZD GlobalDairyTrade Price Index
  • 09:45 USD ISM - NY Business Conditions (Sep)
  • 10:00 USD FOMC Member Quarles Speaks
  • 11:30 USD 4-Week Bill Auction 2.080%
  • 12:00 USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks
  • 15:30 USD All Car Sales and Truck Sales
  • 16:30 USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock 

Wednesday Oct 3

  • All Day Holiday South Korea - National Foundation Day of Korea
  • All Day Holiday China - National Day
  • All Day Holiday Germany - Unity Day
  • 03:45 EUR Italian Services PMI (Sep)
  • 03:50 EUR French Services PMI (Sep)
  • 03:55 EUR German Services PMI (Sep) 
  • 04:00 EUR Italian Public Deficit (Q2) 
  • 04:00 EUR Markit Composite PMI (Sep)
  • 04:00 EUR Services PMI (Sep)
  • 04:30 GBP Services PMI (Sep)
  • 06:30 USD Chicago Fed President Evans Speaks
  • 07:00 US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
  • 07:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW)
  • 07:00 US MBA Purchase Index 
  • 07:00 US Mortgage Market Index
  • 07:00 US Mortgage Refinance Index
  • 08:05 USD FOMC Member Barkin Speaks
  • 08:15 USD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Sep) 
  • 09:45 USD Markit Composite PMI (Sep)
  • 09:45 USD Services PMI (Sep)
  • 10:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Sep) 
  • 10:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories
  • 14:00 USD FOMC Member Brainard Speaks
  • 14:15 USD FOMC Member Mester Speaks 
  • 21:30 AUD Trade Balance (Aug)

Thursday Oct 4

  • All Day Holiday China - National Day
  • 07:30 USD Challenger Job Cuts (Sep)
  • 08:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims
  • 08:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 
  • 08:30 USD Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.
  • 09:15 USD FOMC Member Quarles Speaks
  • 10:00 USD Cap Goods Ship Non Defense Ex Air (MoM)
  • 10:00 USD Factory Orders (MoM) (Aug)
  • 10:00 USD Factory orders ex transportation (MoM) (Aug)
  • 10:00 CAD Ivey PMI (Sep)
  • 10:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 

Friday Oct 5

  • All Day Holiday China - National Day
  • 02:00 EUR German PPI (MoM) (Aug)
  • 02:45 EUR French Trade Balance (Aug)
  • 04:00 EUR (MoM) (Aug)
  • 04:30 HKD Foreign Reserves (USD) (Sep)
  • 05:00 INR Interest Rate Decision
  • 08:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Sep)
  • 08:30 USD Average Weekly Hours (Sep)
  • 08:30 USD Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep) 
  • 08:30 USD Participation Rate (Sep)
  • 08:30 USD Unemployment Rate (Sep)
  • 08:30 CAD Employment Change (Sep)
  • 08:30 CAD Unemployment Rate (Sep) 
  • 08:30 USD Trade Balance (Aug)
  • 08:30 CAD Trade Balance (Aug)
  • 13:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 
  • 15:30 CFTC Speculative net positions  

 

Notable Earnings Reports This Week

*EPS estimates via Morningstar where available

Monday Oct 1

Before Open

  • CAL-MAINE FOODS CALM

After Close

  • STITCH FIX-A SFIX

Tuesday Oct 2

Before Open

  • FERGUSON PLC FERGY
  • LAMB WESTON HLD LW
  • PAYCHEX INC PAYX
  • PEPSICO INC PEP

After Close

  • LANDEC CORP LNDC NOVAGOLD RSRCS NG

Wednesday Oct 3

Before Open

  • ACUITY BRANDS AYI
  • LENNAR CORP -A LEN
  • LENNAR CORP -B LEN.B 
  • RPM INTL INC RPM 

After Close

  • PIER 1 IMPORTS PIR
  • RESOURCES CNCTN RECN
  • SYNNEX CORP SNX 

Thursday Oct 4

Before Open

  • CONSTELLATN BRD STZ
  • CONSTELTN BRD-B STZ.B
  • INTL SPEEDWAY ISCA
  • INTL SPEEDWAY-B ISCB 

After Close

  • ARITZIA INC ATZ
  • COSTCO WHOLE CP COST
  • SMART GLBL HLDG SGH 

Friday Oct 5

Before Open

  • Nil

After Close

  • Nil

Note these estimates and times are subject to change and for indication only. Trade and invest at your own risk.

Trade Smart!  

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