Market Talk

Google Ad

Where have we been and where are we going? Join our weekly market thread on Traders Community... 

 OPEC v Shale

FEAR NOT Brave Investors :

Trade Wars, Trump, OPEC and Fed

Stocks shrugged off tariffs this week and became fixated with pot stocks. The Dow Jones closed at all time highs, you would think there is no risk out there. Well, there is the Fed's rate hike Wednesday, with a likely hawkish economic forecast and statement. That comes after the launch of new tariffs on China Monday and an OPEC+ meeting on Sunday.

Not enough? How about a move to reach an agreement on NAFTA ahead of a U.S. deadline of Friday. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau speaks in New York at the Council on Foreign Relations Tuesday, and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer also speaks Tuesday elsewhere. Then we have President Donald Trumps talking about Iran at the United Nations Tuesday, after his likely input on oil prices and OPEC. President Trump is also expected to chair the UN Security Council with more talk about U.S. sanctions on Iran.

Oh and those emerging markets continue to overhang, particularly the Fragile 5 and Argentina. 

Again rationality was not a feature of the week with valuations in the stratosphere and no fear of risk. Real earnings are actually negative year on year with the stock market at lofty levels and the Fed raising rates. I repeat, if you wanted to play in the big room at Vegas, you are living it.  Understand risk and the madness of crowds for your own sanity and wealth.

The week ahead has more than the Fed, Trump, Iran and OPEC we have housing, PMI, GDP and consumer sentiment data to digest. Brexit and Italy are bubbling along also.

Earnings wise we have Nike $NKE, Jabil $JBL, KB Homes $KBH Carmax $KBH, Bed Bath & Beyond $BBY, Conagra $CAG, Accenture $ACN, Carnival $CCL and Blackberry $BB among the names reporting.

-comment section below data-

Geopolitical Tinderbox Radar


Turkey Geopolitical

Last Week's Big Stories

The Week That Was - Last Weeks Recap

Earnings Reports

Stock Markets

Biggest Stock Winners and Losers Last Week*

MW TOP5 W 9 22 18 

 US Stock Indices Performance

 MW US Perf W 9 22 18

  S&P 500

 MW SP W 9 22 18

  Amazon $AMZN

 MW AMZN D 9 22 18

Fixed Interest

US Yield Curve & SPX

 MW SPX Yield W 9 22 18

10 Year Treasury Note

 MW TNX W 9 22 18

Energy and Commodity Markets

US Crude Oil (WTI)

 MW WTI W 9 22 18

US Natural Gas (Henry Hub)

 MW NG W 9 22 18

Baltic Dry Index (BDI)

MW BDI W 9 22 18 

 

Currency Markets

 Australian Dollar (AUDUSD)

 MW AUDUSD W 9 22 18

 New Zealand Dollar (NZDUSD)

 MW NZDUSD W 9 22 18

Canadian Dollar (USDCAD)

MW USDCAD W 9 22 18

Euro (EURUSD)

 MW EURUSD W 9 22 18

EuroPound (EURGBP)

 MW EURGBP W 9 22 18

Japanese Yen (USDJPY)

 MW USDJPY W 9 22 18

Argentine Peso (USARS)

 MW USD ARS D 9 22 18

Turkish Lire (USDTRY)

MW USDTRY D 9 22 18 

Bitcoin

 MW BTC W 9 22 18

 

The Week Ahead

Key US Economic and Central Bank Events This Week

Monday Sep 24

  • All Day Holiday South Africa - Heritage Day
  • All Day Holiday South Korea - Chusok - Full Moon Festival
  • All Day Holiday Japan - Autumn Equinox
  • All Day Holiday China - Mid-Autumn Festival
  • 04:00 EUR German Ifo Business Climate Index
  • 04:30 GBP BoE Financial Stability Report
  • 08:30 USD Chicago Fed National Activity (Aug)
  • 10:30 USD Dallas Fed Mfg Business Index (Sep)
  • 11:30 USD 3-Month Bill Auction
  • 11:30 USD 6-Month Bill Auction
  • 13:00 USD 2-Year Note Auction
  • 19:50 JPY Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Tuesday Sep 25

  • All Day Holiday Hong Kong - The day following the Chinese Mid-Autumn Festival
  • All Day Holiday South Korea - Chusok - Full Moon Festival
  • 01:30 JPY BoJ Governor Kuroda Speaks
  • 04:00 EUR Italian Trade Balance Non-EU (Jul)
  • 04:40 GBP MPC Member Vlieghe Speaks
  • 08:55 USD Redbook (MoM)
  • 09:00 USD House Price Index (YoY) (Jul)
  • 09:00 USD S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 s.a. (MoM) (Jul)
  • 10:00 USD CB Consumer Confidence (Sep)
  • 10:00 USD Richmond Manufacturing Index (Sep)
  • 10:30 USD Dallas Fed Services Revenues (Sep)
  • 10:30 USD Texas Services Sector Outlook (Sep)
  • 11:30 USD 4-Week Bill Auction 
  • 13:00 USD 5-Year Note Auction
  • 16:30 USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock 
  • 18:45 NZD Trade Balance (MoM) (Aug) 

Wednesday Sep 26

  • All Day Holiday South Korea - Chusok - Full Moon Festival
  • 01:00 JPY BoJ Core CPI (YoY)
  • 04:30 GBP Gross Mortgage Approvals
  • 07:00 US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
  • 07:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW)
  • 07:00 US MBA Purchase Index 
  • 07:00 US Mortgage Market Index
  • 07:00 US Mortgage Refinance Index
  • 10:00 USD New Home Sales (MoM) (Aug)
  • 10:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories
  • 14:00 USD FOMC Economic Projections
  • 14:00 USD FOMC Statement
  • 14:00 USD Fed Interest Rate Decision
  • 14:30 USD FOMC Press Conference
  • 17:00 NZD RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
  • 17:00 NZD RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
  • 18:00 NZD RBNZ Press Conference

Thursday Sep 27

  • 02:35 JPY BoJ Governor Kuroda Speaks
  • 04:00 EUR ECB Economic Bulletin
  • 04:00 EUR M3 Money Supply (YoY) (Aug) 
  • 05:00 EUR Consumer Inflation Expectation (Sep)
  • 05:45 EUR Italian 10-Year BTP Auction 
  • 05:45 EUR Italian 5-Year BTP Auction 2
  • 07:45 GBP BoE MPC Member Haldane Speaks
  • 08:00 EUR German CPI (MoM) (Sep)
  • 08:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims
  • 08:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 
  • 08:30 USD Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.
  • 08:30 USD Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Aug)
  • 08:30 USD Core PCE Prices
  • 08:30 USD Corporate Profits (QoQ) (Q2)
  • 08:30 USD GDP (QoQ) (Q2) 
  • 08:30 USD Goods Trade Balance (Aug)
  • 08:30 USD Real Consumer Spending (Q2)
  • 08:30 USD Wholesale Inventories (MoM) 
  • 10:00 USD Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Aug) 
  • 10:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 
  • 11:00 USD KC Fed Composite Index (Sep) 
  • 11:00 USD KC Fed Manufacturing Index (Sep)
  • 12:30 USD FOMC Member Kaplan Speaks
  • 13:00 USD 7-Year Note Auction
  • 17:45 CAD BoC Gov Poloz Speaks
  • 19:30 JPY Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (Sep)
  • 19:50 JPY BoJ Summary of Opinions 
  • 21:45 CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Sep) 

Friday Sep 28

  • 08:30 USD Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Aug)
  • 08:30 USD FOMC Member Barkin Speaks
  • 08:30 USD Personal Income (MoM) (Aug)
  • 08:30 USD Personal Spending (MoM) (Aug) 
  • 08:30 USD Real Personal Consumption (MoM) (Aug)
  • 08:30 CAD GDP (MoM) (Jul)
  • 09:20 GBP MPC Member Ramsden Speaks
  • 09:45 USD Chicago PMI (Sep)
  • 10:00 USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Sep)
  • 11:00 CAD Budget Balance (Jul) 
  • 11:56 USD Dallas Fed PCE (Aug)
  • 13:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 
  • 15:30 CFTC Speculative net positions 

 

Notable Earnings Reports This Week

*EPS estimates via Morningstar where available

Monday Sep 24

Before Open

  • AMALGAMTD BK NY AMAL

After Close

  • ASCENA RETAIL ASNA

Tuesday Sep 25

Before Open

  • DHX MEDIA LTD DHXM
  • DHX MEDIA-TS DHX
  • FACTSET RESH FDS
  • HEXINDAI INC HX
  • IHS MARKIT LTD INFO
  • JABIL INC JBL
  • MANCHESTER UTD MANU

After Close

  • AAR CORP AIR
  • CINTAS CORP CTAS
  • ELECTROMED INC ELMD
  • ENSYNC INC ESNC
  • ISORAY INC ISR 
  • KB HOME KBH
  • NIKE INC-B NKE

Wednesday Sep 26

Before Open

  • ACTUANT CORP ATU
  • AGF MGMT -CL B AGF
  • CARMAX GP (CC) KMX
  • H2O INNOVATION HEO
  • H2O INNOVATION HEOFF
  • NETSOL TECH INC NTWK
  • OMNOVA SOLUTION OMN
  • WORTHINGTON IND WOR

After Close

  • BED BATH&BEYOND BBBY

Thursday Sep 27

Before Open

  • ACCENTURE PLC ACN
  • ANGIODYNAMICS ANGO
  • CANTEL MED CORP CMD
  • CARNIVAL CORP CCL
  • CARNIVAL PLC CUK
  • CONAGRA BRANDS CAG
  • FERRELLGAS -LP FGP
  • MCCORMICK & CO MKC
  • MCCORMICK -COM MKC.V
  • RITE AID CORP RAD
  • VECIMA NETWORKS VCM

After Close

  • AEHR TEST SYS AEHR
  • CALAMP CORP CAMP
  • IKANG HEALTHCR KANG
  • PRECISION OP/MA PEYE
  • PROGRESS SOFTWA PRGS

Friday Sep 28

Before Open

  • ACETO CORP ACET
  • BLACKBERRY LTD BB
  • BLACKBERRY-TS BB
  • VAIL RESORTS MTN

After Close

  • Nil

Note these estimates and times are subject to change and for indication only. Trade and invest at your own risk.

Trade Smart!  

Log in to comment
Discuss this article in the forums (40 replies).

Google ads