Market Talk

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 Scooby Doo

FEAR NOT Brave Investors :

Trade Wars, Trump, Fragile Markets and Weed

Busy week for Central Banks with the ECB, BoE and CBRT all meeting. We had more trade wars with U.S. announcing (again) huge tariffs on China and Canada still not reaching a decision. With implosions all around US stock market risk remains disconnected for now. The economic data from the US was mostly impressive particularly with jobs and small businesses. Emerging markets continue to overhang particuarly the Fragile 5 and Argentina. 

This week's irrational event du jour was marijuana stocks, just a week after Elon Musk toking up it seems we have bitcoin like mania gripping the sector. Again rationality was not a feature of the week with valuations in the stratosphere and no fear of risk. Real earnings are actually negative year on year with the stock market at lofty levels and the Fed raising rates. I repeat, if you wanted to play in the big room at Vegas, you are living it.  Understand risk and the madness of crowds for your own sanity and wealth.

The week ahead features more trade talk, the US TIC report, rate decisons from Brazil, South Africa, BoJ and SNB. Inflation reports out of Germany and the UK. Friday we get to see European and American manufacturing and services PMI's. To add to the odd POTUS tweet we have Iran, indonesia, India and Italy bubbling along.

Earnings wise we have chip and software stocks on the radar this week, including Micron $MU, Oracle $ORCL and Red Hat $RHT.

-comment section below data-

Geopolitical Tinderbox Radar


Turkey Geopolitical

Last Week's Big Stories

The Week That Was - Last Weeks Recap

Earnings Reports

 

Stock Markets

Biggest Stock Winners and Losers Last Week*

 MW TOP5 W 9 15 18

 US Stock Indices Performance

 MW US Perf W 9 15 18

  S&P 500

 MW SP W 9 15 18

  Amazon $AMZN

 MW AMZN W 9 15 18

Fixed Interest

US Yield Curve & SPX

 MW SPX Yield W 9 15 18

10 Year Treasury Note

 MW TNX W 9 15 18

Energy and Commodity Markets

US Crude Oil (WTI)

 MW WTI W 9 15 18

US Natural Gas (Henry Hub)

MW NG W 9 15 18 

Baltic Dry Index (BDI)

 MW BDI W 9 15 18

 

Currency Markets

 Australian Dollar (AUDUSD)

 MW AUDUSD W 9 15 18

 New Zealand Dollar (NZDUSD)

MW NZDUSD W 9 15 18 

Euro (EURUSD)

 MW EURUSD W 9 15 18

EuroPound (EURGBP)

 MW EURGBP W 9 15 18

Japanese Yen (USDJPY)

 MW USDJPY W 9 15 18

Argentine Peso (USARS)

 MW USDARS D 9 15 18

Turkish Lire (USDTRY)

 MW USDTRY D 9 15 18 PNG

Bitcoin

MW BTC W 9 8 18 

 

The Week Ahead

Key US Economic and Central Bank Events This Week

Monday Sep 17

  • All Day Holiday Japan - Respect for the Aged Day
  • 02:00 EUR German WPI (MoM) (Aug)
  • 04:00 EUR Italian Trade Balance (Jul) 
  • 05:00 EUR CPI (MoM) (Aug)
  • Tentative EUR German Buba Monthly Report 
  • 08:30 USD NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep)
  • 11:30 USD 3-Month Bill Auction
  • 11:30 USD 6-Month Bill Auction 
  • 21:30 AUD House Price Index (QoQ)
  • 21:30 AUD RBA Meeting Minutes

Tuesday Sep 18

  • Tentative USD OPEC Meeting
  • 08:55 USD Redbook (MoM)
  • 10:00 USD NAHB Housing Market Index (Sep)
  • Tentative NZD GlobalDairyTrade Price Index
  • 11:30 USD 4-Week Bill Auction
  • 16:00 USD US Foreign Buying, T-bonds (Jul) 
  • 16:00 USD Overall Net Capital Flow (Jul)
  • 16:00 USD TIC Net Long-Term Transactions (Jul)
  • 16:00 USD TIC Net Long-Term Transactions including Swaps (Jul)
  • 16:30 USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
  • 19:50 JPY Trade Balance (Aug)
  • 21:30 AUD RBA Assist Gov Kent Speaks
  • 23:00 JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement (YoY)
  • 23:00 JPY BoJ Interest Rate Decision

Wednesday Sep 19

  • 04:30 GBP Core CPI (Aug)
  • 04:30 GBP Core PPI (Aug)
  • 04:30 GBP Core RPI (Aug)
  • 07:00 US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
  • 07:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW)
  • 07:00 US MBA Purchase Index 245.5
  • 07:00 US Mortgage Market Index
  • 07:00 US Mortgage Refinance Index
  • 08:30 USD Building Permits (MoM) (Aug)
  • 08:30 USD Current Account (Q2)
  • 08:30 USD Housing Starts (Aug)
  • 09:00 EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
  • 10:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories
  • 17:00 BRL Interest Rate Decision
  • 21:30 AUD RBA Bulletin

Thursday Sep 20

  • All Day Holiday India - Moharram
  • 03:30 CHF SNB Interest Rate Decision
  • 03:30 CHF SNB Monetary Policy Assessment
  • Tentative USD OPEC Meeting
  • 08:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims
  • 08:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 
  • 08:30 USD Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.
  • 08:30 USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Sep)
  • 08:30 CAD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
  • 09:00 ZAR Interest Rate Decision (Sep)
  • 10:00 USD Existing Home Sales (MoM) (Aug)
  • 10:00 EUR Consumer Confidence (Sep)
  • 10:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 
  • Tentative CAD BoC Review
  • 13:00 USD 10-Year TIPS Auction

Friday Sep 21

  • 02:45 EUR French GDP (Q2)
  • 03:15 EUR French Manufacturing PMI (Sep)
  • 03:15 EUR French Markit Composite PMI (Sep)
  • 03:15 EUR French Services PMI (Sep)
  • 03:30 EUR German Composite PMI (Sep) 
  • 03:30 EUR German Manufacturing PMI (Sep)
  • 03:30 EUR German Services PMI (Sep)
  • 04:00 EUR Manufacturing PMI (Sep) 
  • 04:00 EUR Markit Composite PMI (Sep)
  • 04:00 EUR Services PMI (Sep)
  • 07:00 GBP BoE Quarterly Bulletin
  • 09:45 USD Manufacturing PMI (Sep)
  • 09:45 USD Markit Composite PMI
  • 09:45 USD Services PMI (Sep) 
  • 13:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 
  • 15:30 CFTC Speculative net positions 

Notable Earnings Reports This Week

*EPS estimates via Morningstar where available

Monday Sep 17

Before Open

After Close

  • CHEROKEE INC CHKE
  • FEDEX CORP FDX
  • ORACLE ORCL

Tuesday Sep 18

Before Open

  • APOGEE ENTRPRS APOG
  • AUTOZONE INC AZO
  • CRACKER BARREL CBRL
  • GENL MILLS GIS

After Close

Wednesday Sep 19

Before Open

  • KINGFISHER KGF

After Close

  • RED HAT INC RHT

Thursday Sep 20

Before Open

  • DARDEN RESTRNT DRI
  • THOR INDS INC THO

After Close

  • MICRON TECH MU
  • STEELCASE INC SCS
  • UTD NATURAL FDS UNFI

Friday Sep 21

Before Open

After Close

  • NATUZZI SPA-ADR NTZ

Note these estimates and times are subject to change and for indication only. Trade and invest at your own risk.

Trade Smart!  

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