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 Blind Banker

FEAR NOT Brave Investors :

Trade Wars, Trump, Central Banks and Apple

Groundhog Day - another week of political chaos, trade wars and market risk disconnect. We saw Amazon momentarily become the next trillion dollar company before swiftly falling, we saw Tesla stock continue to collapse after the CFO and HR boss quit while Musk smoked a joint with Joe Rogan on Friday. (Can't say Elon doesn't keep it interesting).

Trump doubled the tariffs on China to $469 Billion (yep) meanwhile the US Manufacturing and Job scenes are running sweetly BUT is that all about to come to a grinding halt as the emerging markets continue to collapse with high rates, US dollar and imploding geopolitical environments?  Politically we saw drawn out NAFTA negotiations with Canada. 

Again rationality was not a feature of the week with valuations in the stratosphere and no fear of risk. Real earnings are actually negative year on year with the stock market at lofty levels and the Fed raising rates. I repeat, if you wanted to play in the big room at Vegas, you are living it.  Understand risk and the madness of crowds for your own sanity and wealth.

The week ahead features Apple $AAPL expected to wow us with new iPhones, wearables and other gadgets. It's a big week for central banks. At one end we have Argentina, Russia and Turkey all meeting and on the other ECB and the Bank of England. To add to the odd POTUS tweet we have Iran, indonesia, India and Italy bubbling along.

Earnings wise we have recent IPOs Sonos $SONO and Pivotal Software $PVTL plus Adobe $ADBE, Kroger $KR) and Dave & Buster's $PLAY on the radar this week..

-comment section below data-

Geopolitical Tinderbox Radar


Turkey Geopolitical

Last Week's Big Stories

The Week That Was - Last Weeks Recap

Earnings Reports

 

Stock Markets

Biggest Stock Winners and Losers Last Week*

 MW TOP5 W 9 8 18

 US Stock Indices Performance

 MW US Perf W 9 8 18

  S&P 500

 MW SP W 9 8 18

  Amazon $AMZN

 MW AMZN D 9 8 18

Fixed Interest

US Yield Curve & SPX

 MW SPX Yield W 9 8 18

10 Year Treasury Note

 MW TNX W 9 8 18

Energy and Commodity Markets

US Crude Oil (WTI)

 MW WTI W 9 8 18

US Natural Gas (Henry Hub)

 MW NG W 9 8 18

Baltic Dry Index (BDI)

 MW BDI W 9 8 18

 

Currency Markets

 Australian Dollar (AUDUSD)

 MW AUDUSD W9 8 18

 New Zealand Dollar (NZDUSD)

 MW NZDUSD W9 8 18

Euro (EURUSD)

MW EURUSD W 9 8 18

EuroPound (EURGBP)

MW EURGBP W 9 8 18 

Japanese Yen (USDJPY)

 MW USDJPY W 9 8 18

Argentine Peso (USARS)

 MW USD ARS D 9 8 18

Turkish Lire (USDTRY)

 MW USDTRY D 9 8 18

Bitcoin

 MW BTC W 9 8 18

 

The Week Ahead

Key US Economic and Central Bank Events This Week

Monday Sep 10

  • All Day Holiday Japan - Respect for the Aged Day
  • 05:00 EUR Core CPI
  • 08:30 USD NY Empire State Manufacturing Index
  • 21:30 AUD House Price Index (QoQ) (Q2) 

Tuesday Sep 11

  • 05:00 EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment
  • 06:00 USD NFIB Small Business Optimism (Aug) 
  • 08:55 USD Redbook (MoM)
  • 10:00 USD JOLTs Job Openings (Jul)
  • 10:00 USD Wholesale Inventories (MoM) (Jul) 
  • 11:30 USD 4-Week Bill Auction 1.970% 22 min
  • 11:30  52-Week Bill Auction 2.365%
  • 13:00 USD 3-Year Note Auction
  • 16:30 USD API Weekly Crude Oil Inventories

Wednesday Sep 12

  • 07:00 US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
  • 07:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW)
  • 07:00 US MBA Purchase Index 245.5
  • 07:00 US Mortgage Market Index
  • 07:00 US Mortgage Refinance Index
  • 07:20 USD OPEC Monthly Report
  • 08:30 USD PPI (MoM) (Aug)
  • 09:30 USD FOMC Member Bullard Speaks
  • 10:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories
  • 12:00 USD WASDE Report
  • 12:45 USD FOMC Member Brainard Speaks
  • 13:00 USD 10-Year Note Auction
  • 14:00 USD Beige Book
  • 19:00 JPY Reuters Tankan Index (Sep)
  • 21:00 AUD MI Inflation Expectations
  • 21:30 AUD Employment Report

Thursday Sep 13

  • All Day Holiday India - Ganesh Chaturthi
  • 02:00 EUR German CPI (MoM) (Aug) 
  • 02:45 EUR French CPI (MoM) (Aug)
  • 04:00 USD IEA Monthly Report
  • Tentative CNY M2 Money Stock (YoY)
  • Tentative CNY New Loans
  • Tentative CNY Outstanding Loan Growth 
  • 05:30 ZAR Gold Production (YoY) (Jul) 
  • 05:30 ZAR Mining Production (Jul) 
  • Tentative EUR EU Finance Ministers Meeting
  • 07:00 GBP BoE Interest Rate Decision (Sep)
  • 07:45 EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision (Sep)
  • 08:30 USD CPI (MoM) (Aug) 
  • 08:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims
  • 08:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 
  • 08:30 USD Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.
  • 08:30 USD Real Earnings (MoM) (Aug)
  • 08:30 EUR ECB Press Conference
  • 10:00 USD FOMC Member Quarles Speaks
  • 10:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 
  • 11:00 USD Cleveland CPI (MoM) (Aug)
  • 13:00 USD 30-Year Bond Auction
  • 13:15 USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
  • 14:00 USD Federal Budget Balance (Aug)
  • 22:00 CNY Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) (Aug)
  • 22:00 CNY Industrial Production (YoY) (Aug) 

Friday Sep 14

  • 05:00 EUR Trade Balance (Jul)
  • 06:00 GBP BoE Gov Carney Speaks
  • 06:30 RUB Interest Rate Decision (Sep)
  • 07:00 GBP BoE Quarterly Bulletin
  • 08:30 USD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug)
  • 08:30 USD Export Price Index (MoM) (Aug)
  • 08:30 USD Import Price Index (MoM) (Aug)
  • 09:15 USD Capacity Utilization Rate (Aug)
  • 09:15 USD Industrial Production (MoM) (Aug) 
  • 10:00 USD Business Inventories (MoM) (Jul)
  • 10:00 USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Sep)
  • 10:30 USD ECRI Weekly Annualized (WoW)
  • Tentative CAD BoC Review 
  • 13:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 
  • 15:30 CFTC Speculative net positions 

Notable Earnings Reports This Week

*EPS estimates via Morningstar where available

Monday Sep 10

Before Open

  • CHINA ONLINE ED COE
  • DESTINATION MTR DEST
  • HOVNANIAN ENTRP HOV

After Close

  • APPLIED GEN TEC AGTC 
  • AVID BIOSERVICS CDMO
  • INVESTORS RL ES IRET
  • LAKELAND INDS LAKE
  • LIMONEIRA CO LMNR
  • MATRIX SERVICE MTRX
  • SONOS INC SONO

Tuesday Sep 11

Before Open

  • FRANCESCAS HLDG FRAN
  • PEAK RESORTS SKIS

After Close

  • FARMER BROS CO FARM

Wednesday Sep 12

Before Open

  • EYEPOINT PHARMA EYPT
  • INSCAPE CORP INQ
  • OCEAN POWER TEC OPTT
  • POLARITY TE INC COOL
  • ROOTS CORP ROO

After Close

  • ACETO CORP ACET
  • ORBIT GARANT DR OGD
  • OXFORD INDS INC OXM 
  • PIVOTAL SOFTWR PVTL
  • RF INDUSTRIES RFIL
  • SCIENCE APP INT SAIC
  • TAILORED BRANDS TLRD

Thursday Sep 13

Before Open

  • BRADY CORP CL A BRC
  • DOLLARAMA INC DOL
  • EMPIRE CO LTD A EMP
  • KROGER CO KR
  • LOVESAC CO/THE LOVE

After Close

  • CHAMPIONS ONCLG CSBR
  • ADOBE ADBE

Friday Sep 14

Before Open

  • DAVE&BUSTRS ENT PLAY

After Close

  • Nil

Note these estimates and times are subject to change and for indication only. Trade and invest at your own risk.

Trade Smart!  

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