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 Labor Day

FEAR NOT Brave Investors :

Trade Wars, Trump, Contagion and Jobs

Another week of political chaos, trade wars and market risk disconnect. There was more glee over record highs in the S&P and Amazon trading over $2000 then the real emerging markets contagion going on. Earnings wise we are have slowed down to a trickle.  Politically we saw drawn out NAFTA negotiations with Mexico and the U.S. agreeing, leaving Canada as bridesmaids failing to catch the bouquet. It also looks like a BREXIT agreement is closer.

Again rationality was not a feature of the week with valuations in the stratosphere and no fear of risk. Real earnings are actually negative year on year with the stock market at lofty levels and the Fed raising rates. I repeat, if you wanted to play in the big room at Vegas, you are living it.  Understand risk and the madness of crowds for your own sanity and wealth.

The week ahead begins with the US and Canada off for Labor Day on Monday through to Friday the big data day with the U.S. jobs report due (a labor week so to speak). The first week of the month so we get a string of manufacturing and services PMI reports from around the world. The date helps us guage the economy on the pace of new orders, production, employment, deliveries, inventories, export orders, and prices paid for manufacturers. In the UK we get on Tuesday's testimony on the last Inflation Report by Bank of England Governor Mark Carney before the Treasury Select Committee. To add to the odd POTUS tweet we have Turkey, Iran, indonesia, Italy and the South American situations.

Earnings wise we have finished the bulk of earnings season and have Broadcom $AVGO, Gamestop $GME and Palo Alto Networks $PANW on the radar this week..

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Geopolitical Tinderbox Radar


Turkey Geopolitical

Last Week's Big Stories

The Week That Was - Last Weeks Recap

Earnings Reports

 

Stock Markets

Biggest Stock Winners and Losers Last Week*

 MW TOP5 W 9 1 18

 US Stock Indices Performance

 MW US Perf W 9 1 18

  S&P 500

 MW SP W 9 1 18

  Amazon $AMZN

 MW AMZN W 9 1 18

Fixed Interest

US Yield Curve & SPX

 

10 Year Treasury Note

 

Energy and Commodity Markets

US Crude Oil (WTI)

 MW WTI W 9 1 18

US Natural Gas (Henry Hub)

 MW NG W 9 1 18

Baltic Dry Index (BDI)

 MW BDI W 9 1 18

 

Currency Markets

 Australian Dollar (AUDUSD)

 MW AUDUSD W9 1 18

 New Zealand Dollar (NZDUSD)

MW NZDUSD W9 1 18

Euro (EURUSD)

 MW EURUSD W 9 1 18

Japanese Yen (USDJPY)

 MW USDJPY W 9 1 18

Argentine Peso (USARS)

MW USD ARS D 9 1 18

Turkish Lire (USDTRY)

 MW USDTRY D 9 1 18

Bitcoin

 MW BTC W 9 1 18

 

The Week Ahead

Key US Economic and Central Bank Events This Week

Monday Sep 3

  • All Day Holiday Canada - Labour Day
  • All Day Holiday United States - Labor Day 
  • 03:50 EUR French Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
  • 03:55 EUR German Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
  • 04:00 EUR EU Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 
  • 04:30 GBP Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 
  • 14:30 USD Chicago Fed President Evans Speaks

Tuesday Sep 4

  • 00:30 AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision (Sep) 
  • 00:30 AUD RBA Rate Statement 
  • 05:30 AUD RBA Governor Lowe Speaks
  • 06:15 Treasury Select Committee Testimony BOE Carney
  • 09:45 USD Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
  • 10:00 USD Construction Spending (MoM)
  • 10:00 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
  • Tentative NZD GlobalDairyTrade Price Index
  • 10:30 USD Chicago Fed President Evans Speaks
  • 11:30 USD 3-Month Bill Auction
  • 11:30 USD 4-Week Bill Auction
  • 11:30 USD 6-Month Bill Auction
  • 15:30 USD All Car Sales 
  • 15:30 USD Total Vehicle Sales
  • 21:45 CNY Caixin Services PMI (Aug)

Wednesday Sep 5

  • 03:45 EUR Italian Services PMI (Aug)
  • 03:50 EUR French Markit Composite PMI (Aug) 
  • 03:50 EUR French Services PMI (Aug)
  • 03:55 EUR German Composite PMI (Aug)
  • 03:55 EUR German Services PMI (Aug)
  • 04:00 EUR Markit Composite PMI (Aug)
  • 04:00 EUR Services PMI (Aug)
  • 04:30 GBP Services PMI (Aug)
  • 07:00 US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
  • 07:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW)
  • 07:00 US MBA Purchase Index 245.5
  • 07:00 US Mortgage Market Index
  • 07:00 US Mortgage Refinance Index
  • 08:30 USD Trade Balance (Jul)
  • 08:55 USD Redbook (MoM) 
  • 09:45 USD ISM - NY Business Conditions (Aug)
  • 10:00 CAD BoC Rate Statement
  • 10:00 CAD BoC Interest Rate Decision
  • 15:00 USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks
  • 16:00 USD FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks
  • 16:15 USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks
  • 16:30 USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
  • 18:30 USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
  • 21:30 AUD Trade Balance (Jul)
  • 21:30 JPY BoJ Board Member Kataoka Speaks

Thursday Sep 6

  • 07:30 USD Challenger Job Cuts (Aug)
  • 08:15 USD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Aug)
  • 08:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 
  • 08:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims
  • 08:30 USD Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.
  • 08:30 USD Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q2)
  • 08:30 USD Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q2) 
  • 09:45 USD Markit Composite PMI (Aug)
  • 09:45 USD Services PMI (Aug)
  • 10:00 USD Cap Goods Ship Non Defense Ex Air (MoM)
  • 10:00 USD Durable Goods Orders (MoM)
  • 10:00 USD Factory Orders (MoM) (Jul)
  • 10:00 USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks
  • 10:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
  • 10:30 US Natural Gas Storage
  • 11:00 USD Crude Oil Inventories
  • 12:30 CHF SNB Gov Board Member Zurbrugg Speaks
  • 14:30 CAD BoC Gov Council Member Wilkins Speaks
  • Tentative CNY Trade Balance (USD) (Aug)

Friday Sep 7

  • All Day Holiday Brazil - Independence Day'
  • 01:00 JPY Coincident Indicator (MoM) (Jul)
  • 02:00 EUR German Trade Balance (Jul)
  • 02:45 EUR French Trade Balance (Jul) 
  • 04:30 GBP Inflation Expectations 
  • 05:00 EUR GDP (QoQ) (Q2) 0.4% 0.4%
  • 08:30 USD Employment Report (Aug) 
  • 08:30 USD Unemployment Rate (Aug) 
  • 08:30 CAD Employment Report (Aug)
  • 08:30 CAD Unemployment Rate (Aug)
  • 09:00 USD FOMC Member Mester Speaks
  • 10:00 CAD Ivey PMI (Aug) 61.8
  • 12:45 USD FOMC Member Kaplan Speaks
  • 13:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 
  • 15:30 CFTC Speculative net positions

 Saturday Sep 8

  • 09:13 CNY Exports (YoY) (Aug) 
  • 09:13 CNY Imports (YoY) (Aug) 
  • 09:13 CNY Trade Balance (USD) (Aug)
  • 10:45 USD FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks

 

Notable Earnings Reports This Week

*EPS estimates via Morningstar where available

Monday Sep 3

Before Open

  • Nil

After Close

  • Nil

Tuesday Sep 4

Before Open

  • Conn's Inc $CONN
  • Sears Holdings Corp $SHLD
  • USA Technologies Inc $USAT

After Close

  • Dave & Buster's Entertainment Inc $PLAY
  • RH Restoration Hardware $RH
  • Smartsheet Inc. $SMAR
  • Workday $WDAY

Wednesday Sep 5

Before Open

  • KNOT OFFSHOR LP $KNOP

After Close

  • Ctrip.Com $CTRP 
  • Descartes Systems $DSG
  • DocuSign Inc. $DOCU

Thursday Sep 6

Before Open

  • Barnes & Noble Inc $BKS
  • Broadcom $AVGO
  • Dell Technologies Inc $DVMT
  • FuelCell Energy $FCEL
  • Navistar International $NAV

After Close

  • GameStop Corp $GME Lands End $LE Marve
  • ll Technology Group $MRVL
  • OKTA INC $OKTA
  • Palo Alto Networks $PANW

Friday Sep 7

Before Open

  • Evolution Petroleum Corp $EPM
  • Tsakos Energy Navigation $TNP

After Close

  • Shiloh Industries $SHLO

Note these estimates and times are subject to change and for indication only. Trade and invest at your own risk.

Trade Smart!  

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