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 Greed

FEAR NOT Brave Investors :

Trade Wars, Trump, Greed and Madness of Crowds

Another week of political chaos, trade wars and market risk disconnect. Earnings wise we are have slowed down to a trickle.  Politically we saw President Trump's former lawyer and campaign manager plead guilty and a change of leadership in Australia after a party coup. Nothing good to say about trade wars as NAFTA and China unravelled  Jackson Hole was nothing but hot air and despite all this we saw more record highs on US stock indices. Rationality was not a feature of the week with valuations in the stratosphere and no fear of risk. 

Real earnings are actually negative year on year with the stock market at lofty levels and the Fed raising rates. I repeat, if you wanted to play in the big room at Vegas, you are living it. With Elon Musk saying he isn't going private now an illustration of the madness right now. Understand risk and the madness of crowds for your own sanity and wealth.

The week ahead begins with Germany's ifo Business Climate Index on Monday, We get U.S. housing updates on Tuesday with the Case-Shiller home price index and pending home sales the next day.  We have two measures of consumer confidence, Tuesday and Friday with an update of Q2 GDP for also after a 4.1% initial read. Reports on personal income, consumer spending and core inflation and if thats not enough you have more POTUS tweet, Turkey and Iran situations.

Earnings wise we have Canadian banks, H&R Block $HRB, Hewlett Packard $HPE, Tiffany $TIF, and Dicks $DKS in a quiet week.

-comment section below data-

Geopolitical Tinderbox Radar


Turkey Geopolitical

Last Week's Big Stories

The Week That Was - Last Weeks Recap

Earnings Reports

 

Stock Markets

Biggest Stock Winners and Losers Last Week*

 MW TOP5 W 8 25 18

 US Stock Indices Performance

 MW US Perf W 8 25 18

  S&P 500

 MW SP W 8 25 18

  Amazon $AMZN

MW AMZN W 8 11 18

Fixed Interest

US Yield Curve & SPX

 MW SPX Yield W 8 25 18

10 Year Treasury Note

 MW TNX W 8 25 18

Energy and Commodity Markets

US Crude Oil (WTI)

MW WTI W 8 25 18 

US Natural Gas (Henry Hub)

 MW NG W 8 25 18

Baltic Dry Index (BDI)

 MW BDI W 8 25 18

 

Currency Markets

 Australian Dollar (AUDUSD)

 MW AUDUSD W 8 25 18

Euro (EURUSD)

MW EURUSD W 8 25 18

Japanese Yen (USDJPY)

MW USDJPY W 8 25 18

Turkish Lire (USDTRY)

MW USDTRY D 8 18 25

Bitcoin

 MW BTC W 8 25 18

 

The Week Ahead

Key US Economic and Central Bank Events This Week

Monday Aug 27

  • All Day Holiday United Kingdom - Summer Bank Holiday
  • 04:00 EUR German Ifo Business Climate Index 
  • 08:30 USD Chicago Fed National Activity (Jul)
  • 10:30 USD Dallas Fed Mfg Business Index (Aug)
  • 10:30 CAD BoC Review
  • 11:30 USD 3-Month Bill Auction
  • 11:30 USD 6-Month Bill Auction
  • 13:00 USD 2-Year Note Auction

Tuesday Aug 28

  • Tentative GBP Inflation Report Hearings
  • 08:30 USD Goods Trade Balance (Jul) 
  • 08:30 USD Wholesale Inventories 
  • 08:55 USD Redbook (YoY) (MoM)
  • 09:00 USD S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 s.a. (MoM) (Jun)
  • 10:00 USD CB Consumer Confidence (Aug)
  • 10:00 USD Richmond Manufacturing Index (Aug)
  • 10:00 USD Richmond Manufacturing Shipments (Aug) 
  • 10:00 USD Richmond Services Index (Aug)
  • 11:30 USD 4-Week Bill Auction
  • 13:00 USD 5-Year Note Auction
  • 16:30 US API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
  • 21:30 JPY BoJ Board Member Suzuki Speaks

Wednesday Aug 29

  • 07:00 US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
  • 07:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW)
  • 07:00 US MBA Purchase Index 245.5
  • 07:00 US Mortgage Market Index
  • 07:00 US Mortgage Refinance Index
  • 08:30 USD Core PCE Prices 
  • 08:30 USD Corporate Profits (QoQ) (Q2)
  • 08:30 USD GDP (QoQ) (Q2)
  • 08:30 USD GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q2) 
  • 08:30 USD PCE Prices
  • 08:30 USD Real Consumer Spending (Q2)
  • 10:00 USD Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Jul)
  • 10:30 US EIA Crude Oil Inventories 
  • 13:00 USD 7-Year Note Auction

Thursday Aug 30

  • 08:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 
  • 08:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims
  • 08:30 USD Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.
  • 08:30 USD PCE Deflator (MoM)
  • 08:30 USD Personal Income (MoM) (Jul)
  • 08:30 USD Personal Spending (MoM) (Jul) 
  • 08:30 USD Real Personal Consumption (MoM) (Jul)
  • 10:30 US Natural Gas Storage
  • 14:21 USD Dallas Fed PCE (July)

Friday Aug 24

 

Notable Earnings Reports This Week

*EPS estimates via Morningstar where available

Monday August 27

Before Open

After Close

  • BILIBILI INC BILI
  • CAPSTONE TURBIN CPST
  • PHIBRO ANIMAL PAHC

Tuesday August 28

Before Open

  • BANK MONTREAL BMO
  • BANK OF NOVA SC BNS
  • BANK OF NOVA-TS BNS
  • BEST BUY BBY
  • CATALENT INC CTLT
  • TIFFANY & CO TIF

After Close

  • BOX Inc Box
  • H&R Block HRB
  • Hewlett Packard HPE

Wednesday August 29

Before Open

  • DICKS SPRTG GDS DKS
  • XPEL TECHNOLOGS DAP

After Close

  • Salesforce.com (CRM)

Thursday August 30

Before Open

  • Campbell Soup (CPB)
  • EDAP TMS SA-ADR EDAP
  • Dollar General (DG)
  • Dollar Tree (DLTR)
  • ITURAN LOCATION ITRN
  • Patterson (PDCO)
  • SIGNET JEWELERS SIG
  • TORONTO DOM BNK TD
  • TORONTO DOM-TS TD
  • CDN WESTERN BK CWB

After Close

  • Cooper (COO)
  • PAGSEGURO DIGTL PAGS
  • Ulta Beauty (ULTA)

Friday August 31

Before Open

After Close

  • Nil

Note these estimates and times are subject to change and for indication only. Trade and invest at your own risk.

Trade Smart!  

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