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 Jackson Hole Cowboys

FEAR NOT Brave Investors :

Trade Wars, Trump, China, Turkey and Jackson Hole

Another week of political chaos, trade wars with Turkey continuing to unravel. Earnings wise we had a big beat from Walmart but a outlook warning from NVidia.  Emerging markets selling we saw a flight to the US Dollar which slowed by week's end. Rationality was not a feature of the week with valuations in the stratosphere and no fear of risk, the S&P 500 is just 1.3 percent from it's all time high. 

Real earnings are actually negative year on year with the stock market at lofty levels and the Fed raising rates. I repeat, if you wanted to play in the big room at Vegas, you are living it.

The week ahead begins with the Deutsche Bundesbank monthly report on Monday with the rhetoric heating up with the August Kansas City Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium starting Aug. 23. Talks restart with China Wednesday and Thursday, the same day a new set of tariffs on Chinese goods are due to take affect. U.S. officials will also meet with European officials Monday and continue talks with Mexico.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s Friday speech on ‘monetary policy in a changing economy’ at the Jackson Hole summit will be the hype of the week.

We get a warm up Wednesday with the release of FOMC minutes  Sanctions against Russia take effect. Back in Europe the euro-area flash PMI survey on Thursday will help us gage if momentum is picking up as expected. If thats not enough you have more POTUS tweets to keep us busy and the Turkey and Iran situations.

Earnings wise with the trade war cascading we get Chinese stocks, including Alibaba and Momo. For Commodities we get BHP Billiton and for the U.S. economy; Toll Brothers, Target and Lowe's report.

-comment section below data-

Geopolitical Tinderbox Radar


Turkey Geopolitical

Last Week's Big Stories

The Week That Was - Last Weeks Recap

Earnings Reports

Stock Markets

Biggest Stock Wiinners and Losers Last Week*

 MW TOP5 W 8 18 18

 US Stock Indices Performance

 MW US Perf W 8 18 18

  S&P 500

 MW SP W 8 18 18

  Amazon $AMZN

MW AMZN W 8 11 18

Fixed Interest

US Yield Curve & SPX

 MW SPX Yield W 8 18 18

10 Year Treasury Note

 MW TNX W 8 18 18

Energy and Commodity Markets

US Crude Oil (WTI)

 MW WTI W 8 18 18

US Natural Gas (Henry Hub)

 MW NG W 8 18 18

Baltic Dry Index (BDI)

 MW BDI W 8 18 18

 

Currency Markets

 Australian Dollar (AUDUSD)

MW AUDUSD W 8 18 18 

Euro (EURUSD)

MW EURUSD W 8 18 18

Japanese Yen (USDJPY)

MW USDJPY W 8 18 18

Turkish Lire (USDTRY)

MW USDTRY D 8 18 18

Bitcoin

 MW BTC W 8 18 18

 

The Week Ahead

Key US Economic and Central Bank Events This Week

Monday Aug 20

  • Tentative EUR German Buba Monthly Report
  • 09:15 CAD BoC Gov Council Member Wilkins Speaks '
  • 11:00 USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
  • 11:30 USD 3-Month Bill Auction
  • 11:30 USD 6-Month Bill Auction
  • 12:00 EUR German Buba President Weidmann Speaks
  • 18:00 AUD RBA Governor Lowe Speaks 

Tuesday Aug 21

  • 08:55 USD Redbook (YoY) (MoM)
  • Tentative NZD GlobalDairyTrade Price Index
  • 11:30 USD 4-Week Bill Auction 1.910% 
  • 16:30 US API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
  • 23:10 AUD RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks

Wednesday Aug 22

  • All Day Holiday Singapore - Hari Raya Haji
  • All Day Holiday India - Eid al-Adha
  • 07:00 US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
  • 07:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW)
  • 07:00 US MBA Purchase Index 245.5
  • 07:00 US Mortgage Market Index
  • 07:00 US Mortgage Refinance Index
  • 10:00 USD Existing Home Sales (MoM) (Jul)
  • 10:30 US EIA Crude Oil Inventories 
  • 14:00 USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
  • 22:45 AUD RBA Assist Gov Boulton Speaks

Thursday Aug 23

  • 03:00 EUR French Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
  • 03:00 EUR French Markit Composite PMI (Aug)
  • 03:00 EUR French Services PMI (Aug) 55.1 54.9
  • 03:30 EUR German Buba President Weidmann Speaks
  • 03:30 EUR German Composite PMI (Aug)
  • 03:30 EUR German Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
  • 03:30 EUR German Services PMI (Aug)
  • 04:00 EUR Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
  • 04:00 EUR Markit Composite PMI (Aug)
  • 04:00 EUR Services PMI (Aug)
  • 07:30 EUR ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting 
  • 08:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 
  • 08:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims
  • 08:30 USD Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.
  • 09:00 USD House Price Index (MoM) (Jun)
  • Tentative USD Jackson Hole Symposium 
  • 09:45 USD Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
  • 09:45 USD Markit Composite PMI
  • 09:45 USD Services PMI (Aug)
  • 10:00 USD New Home Sales (Jul)
  • 10:30 US Natural Gas Storage
  • 11:00 USD KC Fed Composite Index (Aug)
  • 11:00 USD KC Fed Manufacturing Index (Aug)
  • 13:00 USD 5-Year TIPS Auction 

Friday Aug 24

  • 02:00 EUR German GDP (YoY) (Q2) 
  • 04:30 GBP Gross Mortgage Approvals
  • 08:30 USD Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Jul)
  • Tentative USD Jackson Hole Symposium
  • 10:00 USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks
  • 13:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 
  • 15:30 CFTC Speculative net positions

 

Notable Earnings Reports This Week

*EPS estimates via Morningstar where available

Monday August 20

Before Open

  • Estee Lauder $EL
  • NB Global Floating Rate $NBLS 

After Close

  • BETTER ONLN SOL $BOSC
  • BHP Billiton PLC $BLT 
  • LATAM AIRLINES $LTM
  • NORDSON CORP $NDSN

Tuesday August 21

Before Open

  • COTY INC $COTY
  • GAZIT GLOBE LTD $GZT
  • KOHLS CORP $KSS
  • MEDTRONIC $MDT
  • SMUCKER JM $SJM 
  • SUPERIOR GOLD $SGI 
  • TJX $TJX

After Close

  • LA-Z-BOY INC $LZB
  • URBAN OUTFITTER $URBN 

Wednesday August 22

Before Open

  • ANALOG DEVICES $ADI
  • BARNES NOB EDUC $BNED
  • LOWES COS $LOW
  • TARGET CORP $TGT

After Close

  • HUAZHU GROUP $HTHT
  • QAD INC-A $QADA
  • L BRANDS $LB
  • SYNOPSYS $SNPS
  • STEIN MART INC $SMRT
  • ZAYO GROUP HLDG $ZAYO

Thursday August 23

Before Open

  • ALIBABA GROUP $BABA
  • AUTODESK $ADSK
  • FLY LEASING LTD $FLY
  • HORMEL FOODS CP $HRL
  • TORO CO $TTC

After Close

  • GAP INC $GPS
  • GLOBANT SA $GLOB
  • HP INC $HPQ
  • INTUIT INC $INTU
  • ROSS STORES $ROST

Friday August 24

Before Open

  • FOOT LOCKER INC $FL

After Close

  • Nil

Note these estimates and times are subject to change and for indication only. Trade and invest at your own risk.

Trade Smart!  

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