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Turkey Risk

FEAR NOT Brave Investors :

Trade Wars, Trump, China, Turkey and Retail

Same channel with trade wars again, we had Turkey imploding and more Russian sanctions to join the Iran ones throwing kindling on the geopolitical bonfire. We now have Elon Musk joining the POTUS being a little cavalier on his twitter and more shale earnings being the features of the week. PPI was flat but with a flight to safety into the US Dollar as the Euro and pound were sold off for different reasons, rationality was not a feature of the week. With all this the S&P 500  is just 1.3 percent from it's all time high. 

Real earnings are actually negative year on year with the stock market at lofty levels and the Fed raising rates. I repeat, if you wanted to play in the big room at Vegas, you are living it.

The week ahead features more trade wars and geopolitical tinderboxes. No doubt more POTUS tweets to keep us busy. We will be keeping out eyes on Turkey and Iran, on China for industrial output and for July credit data. After the Bank of England’s interest-rate hike we get inflation, wages and retail sales from the U.K. We also get Germany’s GDP as the ECB prepares to ease back stimulus. Key data from the U.S. includes retail sales, industrial production and business inventories.

Earnings wise we are watching tech leaders Cisco $CSCO and Nvidia $NVDA and consumer discretionary and stable stocks, retailers scheduled to report include Advance Auto Parts $AAP, Home Depot $HD, Tapestry $TPR, Macy's $M), J.C. Penney $JCP, Nordstrom $JWN and Walmart $WMT. 

-comment section below data-

Geopolitical Tinderbox Radar


Turkey Geopolitical

Last Week's Big Stories

The Week That Was - Last Weeks Recap

Earnings Reports

Stock Markets

Biggest Stock Wiinners and Losers Last Week*

 MW TOP5 W 8 11 18

 US Stock Indices Performance

MW US Perf W 8 11 18

  S&P 500

 MW SP W 8 11 18

Fixed Interest

US Yield Curve & SPX

 MW SPX Yield W 8 11 18

10 Year Treasury Note

 MW TNX W 8 11 18

Energy and Commodity Markets

US Crude Oil (WTI)

MW WTI W 8 11 18 

US Natural Gas (Henry Hub)

MW NG W 8 11 18 

Baltic Dry Index (BDI)

 MW BDI W 8 11 18

 

Currency Markets

 Australian Dollar (AUDUSD)

MW AUDUSD W 8 11 18

Euro (EURUSD)

 MW EURUSD W 8 11 18

Japanese Yen (USDJPY)

MW USDJPY W 8 11 18 

Bitcoin

 MW BTC W 8 11 18

 

The Week Ahead

Key US Economic and Central Bank Events This Week

Monday Aug 13

  • Tentative CNY FDI 
  • 07:20 OIL OPEC Monthly Report
  • 10:00 USD MBA Delinquency Rates (QoQ)
  • 11:30 USD 3-Month Bill Auction 
  • 11:30 USD 6-Month Bill Auction
  • 22:00 CNY Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) (Jul) 
  • 22:00 CNY Industrial Production (YoY) (Jul)
  • 22:00 CNY Retail Sales (YoY) (Jul) 
  • 22:00 CNY Chinese Unemployment Rate 

Tuesday Aug 14

  • 02:00 EUR German GDP (Q2) 
  • 04:30 GBP Average Earnings 
  • 04:30 GBP Employment and Unemployment Rate (Jun) 
  • 05:00 EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Aug) 
  • 05:00 EUR GDP (Q2) 
  • 05:00 EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment
  • Tentative EUR Eurogroup Meetings
  • 08:30 USD Export Price Index (Jul)
  • 08:30 USD Import Price Index (Jul) 
  • 08:30 USD Import Price Index ex Petroleum 
  • 08:55 USD Redbook (YoY) (MoM)
  • 11:30 USD 4-Week Bill Auction  
  • 11:30 USD 52-Week Bill Auction
  • 16:30 US API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
  • 21:30 CNY House Prices (YoY) (Jul)

Wednesday Aug 15

  • All Day Holiday Italy - Assumption Day
  • All Day Holiday South Korea - National Liberation Day
  • All Day Holiday India - Independence Day
  • 04:30 GBP CPI (Jul)
  • 04:30 GBP RPI (Jul) 
  • 04:30 GBP PPI (Jul)
  • 04:30 GBP House Price Index (YoY)
  • 07:00 US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
  • 07:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW)
  • 07:00 US MBA Purchase Index 245.5
  • 07:00 US Mortgage Market Index
  • 07:00 US Mortgage Refinance Index
  • 08:30 USD Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul) 
  • 08:30 USD Nonfarm Productivity (Q2) 
  • 08:30 USD NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Aug)  
  • 08:30 USD Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q2) 
  • 09:15 USD Capacity Utilization Rate (Jul) 
  • 09:15 USD Industrial Production (YoY) 
  • 09:15 USD Industrial Production (MoM) (Jul) 
  • 09:15 USD Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Jul) 
  • 10:00 USD Business Inventories (MoM)
  • 10:00 USD NAHB Housing Market Index (Aug)
  • 10:30 US EIA Crude Oil Inventories 
  • 16:00 USD US Foreign Buying, T-bonds (Jun)
  • 16:00 USD Overall Net Capital Flow (Jun)
  • 16:00 USD TIC Net Long-Term Transactions (Jun)
  • 16:00 USD TIC Net Long-Term Transactions including Swaps (Jun)

Thursday Aug 16

  • 04:30 GBP Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul) 0
  • 08:30 USD Building Permits (MoM) (Jul) 
  • 08:30 USD Building Permits (Jul) 
  • 08:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 
  • 08:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims
  • 08:30 USD Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.
  • 08:30 USD Housing Starts (Jul) 
  • 08:30 USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Aug)
  • 08:30 USD Philly Fed Prices Paid (Aug)
  • 10:30 US Natural Gas Storage
  • 19:30 AUD RBA Governor Lowe Speaks

Friday Aug 17

 

Notable Earnings Reports This Week

*EPS estimates via Morningstar where available

Monday August 13

Before Open

  • CARGOJET INC CJT Before Open N/A 0.48 N/A
  • CRIUS ENERGY KWH Before Open N/A N/A N/A
  • GEODRILL LTD GEO Before Open N/A 0.06 N/A
  • JINKOSOLAR HLDG JKS Before Open N/A 0.53 N/A
  • NEO PERFORMANCE NEO Before Open N/A 0.24 N/A
  • NINE ENERGY SVC NINE Before Open N/A 0.40 N/A
  • NOVA LIFESTYLE NVFY Before Open N/A N/A N/A
  • PREMIUM BRND-TS PBH Before Open N/A 1.12 N/A
  • SUPERCOM LTD SPCB Before Open N/A 0.01 N/A
  • SYSCO CORP SYY Before Open N/A 0.94 N/A

After Close

  • ABSOLUTE SFT-TS ABT After Market Close N/A 0.01 N/A
  • ABSOLUTE SOFTWR ALSWF After Market Close N/A 0.02 N/A
  • AIRBOSS OF AMER BOS After Market Close N/A 0.22 N/A
  • ALEXCO RESOURCE AXU After Market Close N/A -0.02 N/A
  • ALEXCO RESOURCS AXR After Market Close N/A -0.03 N/A
  • AMERICA FST TAX ATAX After Market Close N/A 0.09 N/A
  • AUTO PROP REIT APR After Market Close N/A 0.26 N/A
  • BSQUARE CORP BSQR After Market Close N/A N/A N/A
  • BSR REIT HOM After Market Close N/A 0.18 N/A
  • CHANTICLEER HLD BURG After Market Close N/A -0.30 N/A
  • CLEARSIGN COMB CLIR After Market Close N/A N/A N/A
  • CYPRESS EGY PTR CELP After Market Close N/A 0.09 N/A
  • ELECTROCORE LLC ECOR After Market Close N/A N/A N/A
  • ELEMENT FLT MGT EFN After Market Close N/A 0.17 N/A
  • ERO COPPER CP ERO After Market Close N/A 0.11 N/A
  • FIRST MAJESTIC AG After Market Close N/A -0.02 N/A
  • FIRST MAJEST-TS FR After Market Close N/A -0.02 N/A
  • FUEL TECH INC FTEK After Market Close N/A N/A N/A
  • HOME CAP GRP -B HCG After Market Close N/A 0.38 N/A
  • HUYA INC-ADR HUYA After Market Close N/A N/A N/A
  • IDEAL POWER INC IPWR After Market Close N/A -0.14 N/A
  • INNERGEX REN-TS INE After Market Close N/A 0.05 N/A
  • INNERGEX RENWBL INGXF After Market Close N/A N/A N/A
  • K-BRO LINEN INC KBL After Market Close N/A 0.17 N/A
  • MOSAIC CAP CP M After Market Close N/A N/A N/A
  • OTELCO INC-A OTEL After Market Close N/A N/A N/A
  • REEDS INC REED After Market Close N/A N/A N/A
  • SIERRA METALS SMT After Market Close N/A 0.09 N/A
  • SIERRA METALS SMTS After Market Close N/A 0.07 N/A
  • SWITCH INC-A SWCH After Market Close N/A 0.03 N/A
  • TMAC RESOURCES TMR After Market Close N/A -0.02 N/A
  • VERITONE INC VERI After Market Close N/A -0.83 N/A
  • VIRTRA INC VTSI After Market Close N/A N/A N/A
  • YY INC-ADR YY After Market Close N/A 1.86 N/A

Tuesday August 14

Before Open

  • ADDVANTAGE TECH AEY Before Open N/A N/A N/A
  • ADVANCE AUTO PT AAP Before Open N/A 1.84 N/A
  • AGJUNCTION INC AJX Before Open N/A N/A N/A
  • ALTA MESA RSRCS AMR Before Open N/A 0.14 N/A
  • CAE INC CAE Before Open N/A 0.20 N/A
  • CAE INC-TS CAE Before Open N/A 0.27 N/A
  • CANADIAN SOLAR CSIQ Before Open N/A 0.44 N/A
  • CDK GLOBAL INC CDK Before Open N/A 0.80 N/A
  • CHAPARRAL EGY CHAP Before Open N/A 0.09 N/A
  • CHARAH SOLUTION CHRA Before Open N/A 0.13 N/A
  • COVIA HOLDINGS CVIA Before Open N/A 0.76 N/A
  • CRONOS GROUP CRON Before Open N/A -0.01 N/A
  • CRONOS GROUP-TS CRO Before Open N/A -0.01 N/A
  • EAGLE POINT CRD ECC Before Open N/A 0.24 N/A
  • ECO-STIM ENERGY ESES Before Open N/A -0.07 N/A
  • ENERCARE INC ECI Before Open N/A N/A N/A
  • EYENOVIA INC EYEN Before Open N/A -0.39 N/A
  • GDS HOLDINGS GDS Before Open N/A -0.11 N/A
  • HIGH LINER FOOD HLF Before Open N/A 0.33 N/A
  • HOME DEPOT HD Before Open N/A 2.85 N/A
  • HYDRO ONE LTD H Before Open N/A 0.23 N/A
  • NATL VISION HLD EYE Before Open N/A 0.17 N/A
  • NEURONETICS INC STIM Before Open N/A -0.72 N/A
  • SHARPS COMPLIAN SMED Before Open N/A 0.03 N/A
  • TECOGEN INC TGEN Before Open N/A 0.00 N/A
  • VIEMED HEALT-TS VMD Before Open N/A N/A N/A
  • AGELLAN COMM RE ACR N/A N/A N/A N/A

After Close

  • AFRICA OIL CORP AOIFF After Market Close N/A N/A N/A
  • AFRICA OIL-TS AOI After Market Close N/A N/A N/A
  • AGILENT TECH A After Market Close N/A 0.63 N/A
  • ARCIMOTO INC FUV After Market Close N/A -0.13 N/A
  • BOXLIGHT CORP BOXL After Market Close N/A -0.09 N/A
  • CARDLYTICS INC CDLX After Market Close N/A -0.48 N/A
  • CDTI ADV MATS CDTI After Market Close N/A -0.09 N/A
  • CREE INC CREE After Market Close N/A -0.02 N/A
  • DPW HOLDINGS DPW After Market Close N/A -0.13 N/A
  • FUSION CONNECT FSNN After Market Close N/A -0.21 N/A
  • GREAT CDN GAMNG GC After Market Close N/A N/A N/A
  • GSE SYSTEMS INC GVP After Market Close N/A N/A N/A
  • HOLLYSYS AUTOMT HOLI After Market Close N/A 0.49 N/A
  • INTELLICHECK MO IDN After Market Close N/A -0.06 N/A
  • INVESQUE INC IVQ After Market Close N/A 0.27 N/A
  • LEAGOLD MINING LMC After Market Close N/A 0.06 N/A
  • LRAD CORP LRAD After Market Close N/A N/A N/A
  • MARRONE BIO INV MBII After Market Close N/A -0.04 N/A
  • MYRIAD GENETICS MYGN After Market Close N/A 0.33 N/A
  • NEPTUNE TEC&BIO NEPT After Market Close N/A N/A N/A
  • ONCOCYTE CORP OCX After Market Close N/A -0.10 N/A
  • PERSPECTA INC PRSP After Market Close N/A 0.19 N/A
  • PETIQ INC PETQ After Market Close N/A 0.39 N/A
  • SG BLOCKS INC SGBX After Market Close N/A N/A N/A
  • TIMBERCRK FINL TF After Market Close N/A 0.17 N/A
  • VIAVI SOLUTIONS VIAV After Market Close N/A 0.08 N/A
  • WHEATON PRC MTL WPM After Market Close N/A 0.14 N/A
  • WHEATON PRCS-TS WPM After Market Close N/A 0.18 N/A
  • WILLIAMS INDUST WLMS After Market Close N/A N/A N/A
  • XG TECH INC XGTI After Market Close N/A N/A N/A
  • YOGAWORKS INC YOGA After Market Close N/A -0.29 N/A

Wednesday August 15

Before Open

  • ATS AUTOMATION ATA Before Open N/A 0.20 N/A
  • HLS THERAPEUTCS HLS Before Open N/A -0.14 N/A
  • LUXOFT HOLDING LXFT Before Open N/A 0.18 N/A
  • MAGAL SECURITY MAGS Before Open N/A N/A N/A
  • METRO INC MRU Before Open N/A 0.76 N/A
  • PARTNER COMM PTNR Before Open N/A N/A N/A
  • PERFORMANCE FG PFGC Before Open N/A 0.60 N/A
  • RADA ELECTRONIC RADA Before Open N/A N/A N/A

After Close

  • BRIGGS & STRATT BGG After Market Close N/A 0.47 N/A
  • CACI INTL A CACI After Market Close N/A 1.78 N/A
  • CISCO SYSTEMS CSCO After Market Close N/A 0.63 N/A
  • INPUT CAPITAL INP After Market Close N/A N/A N/A
  • LIFEVANTAGE CP LFVN After Market Close N/A 0.17 N/A
  • NATL AMER UNIV NAUH After Market Close N/A N/A N/A
  • SPARTAN NASH CO SPTN After Market Close N/A 0.57 N/A

Thursday August 16

Before Open

  • CELLCOM ISRAEL CEL Before Open N/A N/A N/A
  • DESPEGAR.COM CP DESP Before Open N/A 0.04 N/A
  • ELBIT SYSTEMS ESLT Before Open N/A N/A N/A
  • LSI INDUSTRIES LYTS Before Open N/A 0.01 N/A
  • VASCULAR BIOGNC VBLT Before Open N/A -0.18 N/A
  • WALMART INC WMT Before Open N/A 1.21 N/A

After Close

  • 21VIANET GP-ADR VNET After Market Close N/A -0.01 N/A
  • ACCURAY INC ARAY After Market Close N/A -0.02 N/A
  • ADTELUM GBL EDU ATGE After Market Close N/A 0.90 N/A
  • NORDSTROM INC JWN After Market Close N/A 0.83 N/A
  • NVIDIA CORP NVDA After Market Close N/A 1.64 N/A
  • ZOES KITCHEN ZOES After Market Close N/A -0.05 N/A

Friday August 17

Before Open

  • DEERE & CO DE Before Open N/A 2.76 N/A

After Close

Nil

Note these estimates and times are subject to change and for indication only. Trade and invest at your own risk.

Trade Smart!  

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