Economy

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The U.S. jobs report for December a robust 312,000 new NFP jobs following revised November non farm payrolls of 161,000 new jobs with unemployment rising to 3.9% off 48 year lows. We are still digesting the effect trade wars on jobs with tensions affecting employers.

It is clear the collapse in oil prices has had unintended consequences. In Texas the Dallas Fed manufacturing index for December slid a massive 22.5 points to -5.1 from +17.6 in November. Texas buinesses are also being negatively impacted by the trade war.

The U.S. jobs report for November is expected to show a robust 200,000 new NFP jobs following revised October non farm payrolls of 237,000 new jobs with unemployment to stay at 48 year lows. We are still digesting the effect trade wars on jobs with tensions affecting employers.

With tariffs and trade wars front and center and the Huawei scandal the US trade deficit for October, the largest since 2008 in in focus. The US had a $55.5 billion deficit up from $54 billion in September with record imports. The deficit with China was $43.18 billion and is a record high.

Australia delivered a trade surplus for the tenth month in a row. Australia's a trade surplus was however lower than expected as signaled by the weaker than expected GDP with drought and mining affects.

Australian third quarter GDP was reported at +0.3% q/q much lower than the expected +0.6% and the previous quarter's +0.9%, On a yearly basis the growth rate is 2.8 % lower than the expected +3.3% and  prior +3.4%. The Australian dollar sold off sharply on the news.

Inflation is boiling in the U.S. or it is distorted by trade tarrifs? US October PPI came out hot +0.6% vs +0.2% m/m expected up from September's +0.2% m/m. On the year PPI is +2.9% vs 2.5% y/y. The US Dollar rose sharply on the report, the stock markets dumped.

With tariffs and trade wars front and center the US trade deficit has been a hot topic. In September the US had a $54 billion deficit up from $53.3 billion in August. The deficit with China was $40.24 billion and is a record high likely to fuel the tariff threats from the U.S. to China.

U.S. October non farm payrolls were much higher at  250,000 then the expected 200,000. Unemployment stayed at 48 year lows. We are still digesting the effect trade wars on jobs with tensions affecting employers.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased 3.5% in the third quarter of 2018, according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Core PCE +1.6% vs +2.1% expected

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