Economy

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The US Labor Department June jobs report Friday added  224,000 NFP jobs much higher than expected 158,000 after adding just 71,000 NFP jobs last month. Unemployment rose to 3.7% just off the lowest since December 1969 as the Participation rate rose to 62.9% 

Global manufacturing saw production fall for the first time since October 2012, new orders fell at the fastest pace for almost seven years. Business optimism slumped to a series-record low. Declines were registered in the euro area, China and Japan. Increases in the US and India.

Germany manufacturing PMI came in like most European PMIs, soft as the global trade war and Brexit drama weighed. 45.0 was a 4-month high, but still the manufacturing sector contracted for a sixth month in a row. Growth in consumer goods was the brightspot.

The UK manufacturing sector in June fell again after a much larger downturn than expected in May. We are seeing balancing after the March spike to 55.1 boosted by stock purchases ahead of Brexit hitting a G-7 record. UK exports were also at their lowest in almost 5 years.

Dallas Fed Manufacturing index for June slid further negative to -12.1, lowest since December as trade war and falling energy prices unintended consequences continue to hurt Texas. Worrisome is orders growth rate -6.7 versus 1.1 May capital expenditures 6.9 versus 18.3 last month

Lower long term interest rates in the U.S. have seen refinancing take off, Mortgage applications jumped to their highest level since September 2016. Refinancing activity the highest since November 2016 accounted for 49.8% of mortgage applications

The US Labor Department May jobs report Friday missed big with 75,000 NFP jobs added versus expected 190,000 . Unemployment was 3.6% the lowest since December 1969. Participation rate waso 62.8 again. Weaker ADP and PMI reports and skill shortage affected.

Property and stock prices have recovered after losing 3.7% in the last quarter after the Federal Reserve changed tact on rates. The move pushed Americans household wealth to record highs with a gain of 4.5% in the first  quarter of 2019..

The US trade deficit in April was $50.8 billion down from the prior month's $51.9 billion (revised up from $50.08) . We saw a 10-year high deficit of $621 billion in 2018. The Chinese/US trade deficit rose again to -26,90 after - $20.75 billion from -$24.76 & -$34.47 prior.

Australia delivered a trade surplus for the sixteenth month in a row. Australia's a trade surplus was however lower than expected as signaled by the weaker than expected GDP with drought and mining affects.

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