Economy

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The U.S. jobs added NFP +196k jobs in March, higher than 177k expected and 33k in February. Unemployment stayed at 3.8% 48 year low. Participation rate fell to 63.0 from 63.2%. Wages were less than expected with Avg hourly earnings +0.1% m/m v +0.3% exp, +3.2% y/y v +3.4%

The European services sector strength contrasts with weak manufacturing conditions. Growth was led by Germany and Spain. Suggesting that the domestic economies aren't as burdened by the global trade war and Brexit drama. Resilient rate of growth that has lost some momentum.

The US manufacturing sector has been weakening along with the global economy. On Monday the Markit final US March manufacturing PMI came in at 52.4, the lowest since June 2017. However the regional Chicago ISM Manufacturing PMI rebounded to 55.3.

European manufacturing PMIs were mostly soft as the global trade war and Brexit drama weighed. Germany and Italy were notable contributors to the stronger decline. Netherlands and Spain the only two over 50.0

The UK manufacturing sector had been weakening along with the global economy. On Monday the Markit final UK March manufacturing PMI came in at 55.1 vs 51.2 expected boosted by stock purchases ahead of Brexit hitting a G-7 record.

The US trade deficit in January was $51.98 billion down from the prior month's $59.8 billion off  the 10-year high of $621 billion in 2018. Goods deficits with China, Mexico, EU came off records as imports fell 2.1%and the services surplus increased to $22.14 billion.

House prices rose a seasonally adjusted 0.1% in January the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-city index showed. Price gains were 3.6% higher compared to a year ago. However that is the slowest annual growth since 2012 with a monthly decline for the third-straight month.

The US announced its largest monthly fiscal deficit on record for February at $234 billion, worse than the $227B expected and the largest shortfall EVER for any single month on record and from a $215 billion gap a year earlier.

The monthly Reuters Tankan survey indicates Japanese manufacturer's sentiment falling the lowest since October 2016 in March with the sentiment index at +10 from February's +13. This was the fifth consecutive monthly fall for the sentiment index. 

US Consumer price inflation (CPI) for  February was 0.2% as expected. YoY was 1.5% less than expected. However real average hourly earnings rose 1.9% higher than the previous month. Bottom line is the Federal Reserve remains as clueless about inflation and wages as before.

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