Economy

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The Chinese economy rose 18.3% yoy in the first quarter, though lower than the market consensus of 19%. China's growth accelerated from 6.5% growth in Q4 . This was the strongest pace of expansion since 1992 (when records were first published)

Australia saw stronger than expected employment with part time jobs growth leading the way in March and Unemployment down to 5.6%. Positives included the record high participation rate at 66.3% and underemployment lowest in 7 years at 7.9%.

US March CPI +2.6% annual inflation rate, slightly higher than expected +2.5%, up from 1.7% in February but the highest reading since August of 2018 with main upward pressure coming from energy +13.2% vs 3.7% in February including gasoline +22.5% vs 1.6% prior.

The  Federal Reserve Bank of New York's March 2021 Survey of Consumer Expectations showed a continuation in the recent upward trend in inflation, home price, and spending growth expectations.Labor market expectations continued to recover with higher expectations about job security and improved unemployment expectations. 

Inflation in China came in higher than expected levels for both the consumer and producer in March. CPI 0.4% y/y (vs. expected 0.3%) & PPI 4.4% y/y ( vs. expected 3.6%) the quickest pace of increase since 2018.

The PBOC issued a research paper on the Chinese households credit situation highlighting that a household credit boom could tend to drag down economic growth more so than corporate debt.  Mortgages are handcuffing China‚Äôs economic potential, as funding is redirected toward real estate and away from more productive uses.

US consumer credit rose by $27.57 billion for February much higher than a $2.8 billion estimate. This was the highest gain since $29.225 billion in November 2017. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 10.1 percent. 

Canada's March Ivey PMI at 72.9, the highest Since April 2018. The index recovering from the pandemic lockdown and all the fallout from political scandals and falling Canadian energy prices. Employment was 62.7 versus 54.0 last month

The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index rose to a new high since February 2020 before the Covid-19 shutdown in April. The index rose 1.8% to 56.4 in April of 2021. The six-month outlook for the US economy jumped 5.1 percent to 55.9.

The key ISM March US services index soared to an all time high 63.7 vs 59.0 marks the tenth straight month of growth for the services sector which accounts for over 80% of the US GDP.  All 18 services industries reported growth with many getting supply chain disruptions bringing inflation risk.  

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