Economy

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Dallas Fed Manufacturing index for June slid further negative to -12.1, lowest since December as trade war and falling energy prices unintended consequences continue to hurt Texas. Worrisome is orders growth rate -6.7 versus 1.1 May capital expenditures 6.9 versus 18.3 last month

Lower long term interest rates in the U.S. have seen refinancing take off, Mortgage applications jumped to their highest level since September 2016. Refinancing activity the highest since November 2016 accounted for 49.8% of mortgage applications

The US Labor Department May jobs report Friday missed big with 75,000 NFP jobs added versus expected 190,000 . Unemployment was 3.6% the lowest since December 1969. Participation rate waso 62.8 again. Weaker ADP and PMI reports and skill shortage affected.

Property and stock prices have recovered after losing 3.7% in the last quarter after the Federal Reserve changed tact on rates. The move pushed Americans household wealth to record highs with a gain of 4.5% in the first  quarter of 2019..

The US trade deficit in April was $50.8 billion down from the prior month's $51.9 billion (revised up from $50.08) . We saw a 10-year high deficit of $621 billion in 2018. The Chinese/US trade deficit rose again to -26,90 after - $20.75 billion from -$24.76 & -$34.47 prior.

Australia delivered a trade surplus for the sixteenth month in a row. Australia's a trade surplus was however lower than expected as signaled by the weaker than expected GDP with drought and mining affects.

Australian first quarter GDP was reported at 0.4% q/q lower than the expected 0.5% q/q but higher than the prior 0.2%. For the y/y 1.8% as expected 1.8% but lower than prior 2.3%. Government spending and exports the main sources for growth.

Manufacturing in the US contracted more than expected in May as measured by the ISM and by Markit. Output was off as prices paid rose giving an earlier indication of the tariff affect.

The UK manufacturing sector in May had a much larger downturn than expected, much of it to do with the March spike to 55.1 vs 51.2 expected boosted by stock purchases ahead of Brexit hitting a G-7 record. UK exports were also at their lowest in almost 5 years.

The Nikkei Japan Manufacturing PMIĀ® in May showed output was reduced for a fifth successive month as demand from both domestic and overseas markets fell. Cusiness outlook turned pessimistic for the first time in six-and-a-half years.

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