Economy

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US Consumer price inflation (CPI) for April came in hot at +4.2% y/y vs +3.6% expected up from +2.6% and the highest since 2008. Core, Ex food and energy +3.0% y/y vs +2.3% expected and prior ex food and energy +1.6%. Month on month CPI rose +0.8% m/m vs +0.2% expected with [rior m/m reading was +0.6%. Real wages were much lower, Real avg hourly earnings -3.7% vs +1.5% y/y prior.

The US in April added only 266K non-farm payrolls jobs less than forecasted 1.005,000 new jobs, March prev 918k was rrevised to 708k. The unemployment rate rose to 6.1%. Misses were in private payrolls +218K vs +933K expected and manufacturing payrolls -18K vs +54K expected

The favorite inflation measure of the Fed, core PCE Price Index, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.4% ahead of consensus 0.3% and up from last month's +0.1%, putting it up 1.8% year-over-year. The PCE Price Index jumped 0.5%, as expected, putting it up 2.3% year-over-year, the most since 2018

The US economy grew by a robust annualized 6.4 percent in the first quarter of 2021, following a 4.3 percent expansion in the previous three-month period and slightly ahead market expectations of 6.1 percent, the advance estimate showed. The bounce back comes with stimulus payments and reopening activity catalyzed by the COVID vaccines.

With inflation rearing it's head in many commodities globally ironically Commodity powerhouse Australia Q1 inflation data came in much lower than expected. Q1 2021 Headline CPI 0.6% q/q v an expected 0.9%). Core inflation came in at the lowest reading ever. The Australian dollar sold off on the news with a cash rate hike seemingly in the distant future.

The Dallas Fed Manufacturing index for April rose 37.3 vs 30 expected, the index is a key measure of Texas state manufacturing conditions. New orders 38.5 hit a record high vs 30.5 prior. Prices received for finished goods and Wages and benefits both hit record highs.

March US existing home sales from the National Association of Realtors rose 6.01m vs 6.11m expected. Sales -3.7% m/m vs -1.8% expected (-6.6% prior) from an upwardly revised 6.24 million (from 6.22 million) in February. Notably pressure is coming from the supply of existing homes for sale remains near all-time low levels. This is creating affordability pressures for prospective buyers. /p>

South Korea reported exports are surging again in the first 20 days of April. The Bank of Korea at it's most recent policy meeting said the recovery of the Korean economy has strengthened somewhat. Exports have sustained their buoyancy and facilities investment has continued to recover robustly.

 

US March housing starts soared in March 19.4% m/m vs +13.5% expected, or 1739K v 1613K expected and February's revised 1457K. The highest reading since June of 2006, after harsh winter weather affected activity in February. Building permits were 1766K v 1750K expected.

The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment preliminary estimate came in at 86.5 the highest reading since March 2020 but lower than expected 89.0. One year inflation expectations are at the highest since 2012 3.7% vs 3.3% expected (3.1% prior)

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