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U.S. April non farm payrolls were lower than expected at 164,000, following March when NFP added only 103,000 jobs, which followed the robust February gain of 313,0000 jobs, the most since July 2016. Fed rates have doubt after hourly earnings


The market expected with the April employment report released this Friday May nonfarm payrolls to rise in line with longer-run trends in monthly employment growth. They came in at 164,000 short of a consensus of 175,000 new jobs. Logic suggested a return to the mean after the volatility in the hiring data, with strong February hiring offset by weakness in March. The wages data makes it less certain of the FOMC plan to raise three times into 2019. However unemployment was lower and the two month NFP revision was 30,000.

Apil U.S. Employment Report

NFP April BLSEmployment:

  • April non-farm payrolls +164K vs +190K expected, Prior 103K (revised to 135K)
  • Unemployment rate 3.9% vs +4.0% expected
  • Participation rate 62.8% vs 62.9% prior
  • Underemployment rate 7.8% vs 8.0% prior
  • Two month net revision +30K
  • Private payrolls 168K vs 190K expected Prior 102K 


  • Average hourly earnings +2.6% y/y vs 2.7% exp, Prior  2.7% y/y
  • Average hourly earnings +0.1% m/m vs +0.2% m/m exp
  • Hours worked 34.5 vs 34.5 expected Prior hours worked 34.5

What to expect in April's Employment Report:

 NFP May Exp

April ADP Report

UPDATE: April ADP US employment 204K vs 198K expected, prior 241K (revised to 228K), 


What we expected and what it means for NFP:

ADP April Exp

Recap of March Employment Report

US March NFPTotal nonfarm payroll employment edged up by 103,000 in March, following a large gain in February (+326,000).

What to expect from these numbers in a wildly manic risk on/risk off scenario in the new year is more of the same. The U.S. dollar has it's own seperate issues and short term noise should be decyphered as such. Much of the run on commodities in 2017 was the weak US dollar and that continues in 2018.  Below are expectations and the ADP report to help compare. Earnings are key with the effect on bonds and the dollar to affect commodities and equities. The trick is determining whether it is temporary or game changing.

March US employment report

  • Release time 8:30 am ET Friday, April 6, 2018

Expectations Updated With Report

  • NFP 103k consensus 185k (prior 326k upgraded from 313k)
  • Private Payrolls 102k consensus 190k (287k prior)
  • Unemployment rate 4.1% consensus 4.0% vs 4.1% prior
  • Participation rate 62.9% v 63.0% prior exp 62.9%
  • Underemployment U6 8.0% vs 8.2% 


  • Average hourly earnings y/y 2.7% exp 2.7% y/y exp 2.8% prior
  • Average hourly earnings m/m +0.3% exp +0.3% vs +0.1% prior
  • Average weekly hours 34.5 vs 34.5 exp, 34.5 prior 

Total nonfarm payroll employment edged up by 103,000 in March, following a large gain in February (+326,000).

In March, employment grew in manufacturing, health care, and mining. 

Employment in manufacturing rose by 22,000, with all of the gain in the durable goods component. Employment in fabricated metal products increased over the month (+9,000). Over the year, manufacturing has added 232,000 jobs; the durable goods component accounted for about three-fourths of the jobs added.

Health care added 22,000 jobs, about in line with its average monthly gain over the prior 12 months. Employment continued to trend up over the month in ambulatory health care services (+16,000) and hospitals (+10,000).

Employment in mining increased by 9,000 in March, with gains occurring in support activities for mining (+6,000) and in oil and gas extraction (+2,000). Mining employment has risen by 78,000 since a recent low in October 2016.

Employment in professional and business services continued to trend up in March (+33,000) and has risen by 502,000 over the year.

Retail trade employment changed little in March (-4,000), after increasing by 47,000 in February. In March, employment declined by 13,000 in general merchandise stores, offsetting a gain of the same size in February. Over the year, employment in retail trade has shown little net change.

In March, employment in construction also changed little (-15,000), following a large gain in February (+65,000).

Employment changed little over the month in other major industries, including wholesale trade, transportation and warehousing, information, financial activities, leisure and hospitality, and government.

Expectations and Data Released Prior To Employment Report

ADP Private Sector Payroll By Sector Released Wednesday April 4 2018

Change in Non Farm Private Employment FebMarch  ADP Shows 241,000 Increase in Private Payrolls 


Since January's employment report  the economy comfortably added jobs that absorbed new labor market entrants and the unemployment rate remained at 4.1%. Inflation on a 12-month basis continued to run below the FOMC's target of 2% with Janyary's core CPI reading indicated some firming of trend inflation towards the Committee's objective. Since then gorowth and inflation have struggled.

Source: AFP, TradersCommunity Data, BLS

From The TraderCommunity Research Desk

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