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March non farm payrolls added 103,000 jobs, lower than expected following February's 313,0000 jobs which were the most since July 2016. Fed is likely unchanged with hourly earnings and unemployment steady.

US March NFPTotal nonfarm payroll employment edged up by 103,000 in March, following a large gain in February (+326,000).

What to expect from these numbers in a wildly manic risk on/risk off scenario in the new year is more of the same. The U.S. dollar has it's own seperate issues and short term noise should be decyphered as such. Much of the run on commodities in 2017 was the weak US dollar and that continues in 2018.  Below are expectations and the ADP report to help compare. Earnings are key with the effect on bonds and the dollar to affect commodities and equities. The trick is determining whether it is temporary or game changing.

March US employment report

  • Release time 8:30 am ET Friday, April 6, 2018

Expectations Updated With Report

  • NFP 103k consensus 185k (prior 326k upgraded from 313k)
  • Private Payrolls 102k consensus 190k (287k prior)
  • Unemployment rate 4.1% consensus 4.0% vs 4.1% prior
  • Participation rate 62.9% v 63.0% prior exp 62.9%
  • Underemployment U6 8.0% vs 8.2% 

 

  • Average hourly earnings y/y 2.7% exp 2.7% y/y exp 2.8% prior
  • Average hourly earnings m/m +0.3% exp +0.3% vs +0.1% prior
  • Average weekly hours 34.5 vs 34.5 exp, 34.5 prior 

Total nonfarm payroll employment edged up by 103,000 in March, following a large gain in February (+326,000).

In March, employment grew in manufacturing, health care, and mining. 

Employment in manufacturing rose by 22,000, with all of the gain in the durable goods component. Employment in fabricated metal products increased over the month (+9,000). Over the year, manufacturing has added 232,000 jobs; the durable goods component accounted for about three-fourths of the jobs added.

Health care added 22,000 jobs, about in line with its average monthly gain over the prior 12 months. Employment continued to trend up over the month in ambulatory health care services (+16,000) and hospitals (+10,000).

Employment in mining increased by 9,000 in March, with gains occurring in support activities for mining (+6,000) and in oil and gas extraction (+2,000). Mining employment has risen by 78,000 since a recent low in October 2016.

Employment in professional and business services continued to trend up in March (+33,000) and has risen by 502,000 over the year.

Retail trade employment changed little in March (-4,000), after increasing by 47,000 in February. In March, employment declined by 13,000 in general merchandise stores, offsetting a gain of the same size in February. Over the year, employment in retail trade has shown little net change.

In March, employment in construction also changed little (-15,000), following a large gain in February (+65,000).

Employment changed little over the month in other major industries, including wholesale trade, transportation and warehousing, information, financial activities, leisure and hospitality, and government.

Expectations and Data Released Prior To Employment Report

ADP Private Sector Payroll By Sector Released Wednesday April 4 2018

Change in Non Farm Private Employment FebMarch  ADP Shows 241,000 Increase in Private Payrolls 

Ahead of the US Jobs Report Friday Key Releases This Week:

  • Markit Composite PMI (Feb) 55.8 exp 55.9 prev 55.9
  • Market Services PMI (Feb) 55.9 exp 55.9 prev 55.9
  • ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity (Feb) 62.8 exp 60.0 prev 59.8
  • ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (Feb) 55.0 prev 61.6
  • ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders (Feb) 64.8 prev 62.7 
  • ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Feb) 59.5 exp 58.9 prev 59.9  
  • ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Feb) 61.0 prev 61.9
  • Factory Orders (MoM) (Jan) -1.4% exp -1.3% prev 1.8% 
  • Factory orders ex transportation (MoM) (Jan) 0.4% prev 0.9%
  • IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 55.6 exp 58.2 prev 56.7
  • MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW) 0.3% prev 2.7%
  • MBA Purchase Index 238.3 prev 239.4
  • Mortgage Market Index 384.1 prev 382.9 
  • Mortgage Refinance Index 1,185.7  prev 1,168.5
  • ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Feb) 235K exp 195K prev 244K
  • Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q4) 0.0% exp -0.1% prev -0.1%
  • Trade Balance (Jan) -56.60B exp -52.60B prev -53.90B
  • Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q4) 2.5% exp 2.1%  prev 2.0
  • Beige Book 15:00
  • Consumer Credit (Jan) Exp19.20B Prev 18.45B
  • Challenger Job Cuts (Feb) prev 44.7K  
  • Challenger Job Cuts (YoY)  prev -2.8%  
  • Continuing Jobless Claims exp 1,921K prev 1,931K  
  • Initial Jobless Claims exp 220K prev 210K  
  • Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. prev 220.50K

Since January's employment report  the economy comfortably added jobs that absorbed new labor market entrants and the unemployment rate remained at 4.1%. Inflation on a 12-month basis continued to run below the FOMC's target of 2% with Janyary's core CPI reading indicated some firming of trend inflation towards the Committee's objective.

Source: AFP, TradersCommunity Data, BLS

From The TraderCommunity Research Desk

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