Economy

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U.S. Stock Markets are at all time highs, tax reform has seen companies issue bonuses and pay rises. January's Employment report comes with high expectations. After Yellen's last FOMC hourly earnings are the number that should dictate interest rates.

US December Employment

Will the January Jobs Report Change What The Fed Expected at the last FOMC?

UPDATE: This week's economic data including the jobs report has been posted - please log in to anlayse and comment

What to expect from these numbers is a wildly manic risk off scenario in the new year is more of the same, the caveat are markets setting up for a sell the news so early in the new year? The U.S. dollar has it's own seperate issues and short term noise should be decyphered as such. Much of the run on commodities in 2017 was the weak US dollar and that continues in 2018.  Below are expectations and the ADP report to help compare. Earnings are key with the effect on bonds and the dollar to affect commodities and equities. The trick is determining whetehr it is temporary or game changing.

Ahead of the US Jobs Report Friday Key Releases This Week:

  • December Personal Income and Spending Released Monday Jan 29 2018
  • November Case-Shiller home price index Released Tuesday Jan 30 2018
  • Q4 homeownership rate Released Tuesday Jan 30 2018
  • ADP private sector payroll report for January Released Wednesday Jan 31 2018
  • Q4 employment cost index Released Wednesday Jan 31 2018
  • December pending home sales report Released Wednesday Jan 31 2018
  • Q4 productivity Released Released Thursday Feb 1 2018
  • Initial Jobless Claims Released Thursday Feb 1 2018
  • Institute for Supply Management's January manufacturing gauge Released Thursday Feb 1 2018
  • December construction spending Released Thursday Feb 1 2018

On Friday, the Labor Department's January jobs report and the final reading on the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index come out.

December US employment report

  • Release time 8:30 am ET Friday, February 2, 2018

Expectations

  • NFP consensus 180k (148k Dec)
  • Unemployment rate consensus 4.1% vs 4.1% prior
  • Dec participation rate 62.7%
  • Dec Underemployment U6 prior 8.0%
  • Average hourly earnings y/y exp 2.5% y/y vs 2.5% prior
  • Average hourly earnings m/m exp +0.3% vs +0.3% prior
  • Average weekly hours exp 34.5 vs 34.5 prior

December employment releases built Into these expectations include ADP, ISM, Confidence and Claims Numbers.

  • ADP 250K Beat consensus 190k and 185K prior
  • Initial jobless claims 4 wk avg 241K vs 241.5k prior
  • ISM manufacturing employment 57.0 vs 59.7 prior
  • Conference board help wanted online demand for hiring +229.7K
  • Oct JOLTS 5996K vs 6177k prior
  • Consumer confidence jobs hard to get 20.2 vs 19.6 prior

December's employment report showed the economy comfortably added jobs that absorbed new labor market entrants and the unemployment rate remained at 4.1%. Inflation on a 12-month basis continued to run below the FOMC's target of 2% with December's core CPI reading indicated some firming of trend inflation towards the Committee's objective.

Source: Reuters

From The TraderCommunity Research Desk

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