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A big beat in the private ADP jobs report has U.S. Stock Markets at all time highs heading into the first big economic data release of the year.  The December Employment report comes with high expectations. With a new Fed chief coming in hourly earnings are the number that should dictate interest rates.

Fed Projections DecWill the December Jobs Report Change What The Fed Expected at the last FOMC?

What to expect from these numbers is a wildly manic risk off scenario in the new year is more of the same, the caveat are markets setting up for a sell the news so early in the new year? The U.S. dollar has it's own seperate issues and short term noise should be decyphered as such. Much of the run on commodities in 2017 was the weak US dollar. Below are expectations and the ADP report to help compare. Earnings are key with the effect on bonds and the dollar to affect commodities and equities. The trick is determining whetehr it is temporary or game changing.

December US employment report

  • Release time 8:30 am ET Friday, January 5, 2018


  • NFP consensus 190k range of 232 to 165k with a mean of 191.4k with a standard deviation of 17.6k \
  • Unemployment rate consensus 4.1% vs 4.1% prior
  • Nov participation rate 62.7%
  • Nov Underemployment U6 prior 8.0%
  • Average hourly earnings y/y exp 2.5% y/y vs 2.5% prior
  • Average hourly earnings m/m exp +0.3% vs +0.2% prior
  • Average weekly hours exp 34.5 vs 34.5 prior

December employment releases built Into these expectations include ADP, ISM, Confidence and Claims Numbers.

  • ADP 250K Beat consensus 190k and 185K prior
  • Initial jobless claims 4 wk avg 241K vs 241.5k prior
  • ISM manufacturing employment 57.0 vs 59.7 prior
  • Conference board help wanted online demand for hiring +229.7K
  • Oct JOLTS 5996K vs 6177k prior
  • Consumer confidence jobs hard to get 20.2 vs 19.6 prior

Source: Reuters

From The TraderCommunity Research Desk

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