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US in July added 943K non-farm payrolls jobs more than forecasted 850k as private payrolls added jobs. 703K June prev 850k was revised to 938k. Unemployment rate fell to 5.4% from 5.7%. US Average Hourly Earnings (M/M) rose to 0.4%.

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July 2021 U.S. Employment Report

The Covid-19 virus again threatens the global economy.  Is this Deja vu? The world's economy was shut down and much of America has stay at home orders. Jobless claims numbers have been improving after records and unfortunately the story is much worse as people have not all been able to return to work with jobs replaced.

The May through November reports however were a surprise gain in jobs. The expectation had been for more recovery in job losses for December until new lockdowns came into affect and we saw a loss of 140,000 jobs. We rebounded Jan somewhat with 49,000 new jobs and an upwardly revised 468K in February. The US economy added 916K jobs in March of 2021, the strongest employment growth in 7 months, with the largest gains occurring in leisure and hospitality, public and private education, and construction.

However the March number was revised lower in April to 770k from 916k. In May we saw 559K non-farm payrolls jobs, less than forecasted 674k new jobs, April prev 266k was revised to 278k. US in June added 850K non-farm payrolls jobs more than forecasted 720k, May prev 559k was revised to 583k. US June ADP employment +692K was higher than +600K expected.

The market had expected the June report released Friday to show nonfarm payrolls rise 850k new jobs which it beat with 943k new jobs with a sputtering economy.  The volatile numbers point up how difficult estimating the jobs situation is amid an economy struggling to get back to normal following the coronavirus-inducted shutdown. The national unemployment rate had come off a 50 year low 3.5% with higher participation before the Covid-19 lockdown now to 5.4%.

US Jobs July 2021
 

Julye 2021 US Employment Report & Expectations

Employment:

  • Non-farm payrolls  943k+ vs +850 expected, Prior +850,000 (revised to 938k)
  • Unemployment rate  5.4% vs (est 5.7%; prev 5.9%)
  • Participation rate 61.7% v (est 61.7%; prev 61.6%)(63.3% highest since 2014)
  • Underemployment rate  9.2% (prev 9.8%)
  • Two month net revision  119k Prior +27K -78k +158k -159k +11k +15k +145k
  • Manufacturing payrolls +27k v est 25K; prevR +15k
  • Private payrolls  +703k vs +705K expected prev 615k
  • Long-term unemployed at 3.425m vs 3.985m prev
  • The employment-population ratio  58.4% vs 58.0% prev (61% before pandemic)

United States Non Farm Payrolls

Where the jobs were:

  • Goods producing 44K
  • Service producing 659K
  • Government 240K
  • Part-time employment unchanged from the prior month
  • Manufacturing jobs 27K.
  • Construction 11K
  • Leisure and hospitality 380K
  • Local government education +221K.
  • Professional business at and services, +60 KK

Government Jobs

United States Government Payrolls

 

Manufacturing Jobs

United States Manufacturing Payrolls

 

Wages:

  • Average hourly earnings m/m 0.4% (est 0.3%; prev .03%
  • Average hourly earnings y/y 4.0% (est 3.9%; prev 3.6%

United States Average Hourly Earnings

Hours:

  • Average weekly hours All Employees: 34.8 UNCH (est 34.9; prev 34.8)

United States Average Weekly Hours

 

 

Household Survey Data

The unemployment rate declined by 0.5 percentage point to 5.4 percent in July, and the number of unemployed persons fell by 782,000 to 8.7 million. These measures are down considerably from their highs at the end of the February-April 2020 recession. However, they remain well above their levels prior to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic (3.5 percent and 5.7 million, respectively, in February

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates declined in July for adult men (5.4 percent), adult women (5.0 percent), Whites (4.8 percent), Blacks (8.2 percent), and Hispanics (6.6 percent). The jobless rates for teenagers (9.6 percent) and Asians (5.3 percent) showed little change over the month. Among the unemployed, the number of persons on temporary layoff fell by 572,000 to 1.2 million in July. This measure is down considerably from the high of 18.0 million in April 2020 but is 489,000 above the February 2020 level. The number of permanent job losers declined by 257,000 to 2.9 million in July but is 1.6 million higher than in February 2020. 

The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) decreased by 560,000 in July to 3.4 million but is 2.3 million higher than in February 2020. These long-term unemployed accounted for 39.3 percent of the total unemployed in July. The number of persons jobless less than 5 weeks increased by 276,000 to 2.3 million.

The labor force participation rate was little changed at 61.7 percent in July and has remained within a narrow range of 61.4 percent to 61.7 percent since June 2020. The participation rate is 1.6 percentage points lower than in February 2020. The employment-population ratio increased by 0.4 percentage point to 58.4 percent in July and is up by 1.0 percentage point since December 2020. However, this measure is 2.7 percentage points below its February 2020 level. 

In July, the number of persons employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.5 million, was about unchanged. There were 4.4 million persons in this category in February 2020. These individuals, who would have preferred full-time employment, were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs.

In July, the number of persons not in the labor force who currently want a job was 6.5 million, about unchanged over the month but up by 1.5 million since February 2020. These individuals were not counted as unemployed because they were not actively looking for work during the last 4 weeks or were unavailable to take a job. 

Among those not in the labor force who currently want a job, the number of persons marginally attached to the labor force, at 1.9 million, was little changed in July but is up by 435,000 since February 2020. These individuals wanted and were available for work and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months but had not looked for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. The number of discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached who believed that no jobs were available for them, was 507,000 in July, down by 110,000 from the previous month but 106,000 higher than in February 2020.

 

Household Survey Supplemental Data

In July, 13.2 percent of employed persons teleworked because of the coronavirus pandemic, down from 14.4 percent in the prior month. These data refer to employed persons who teleworked or worked at home for pay at some point in the last 4 weeks specifically because of the pandemic.

In July, 5.2 million persons reported that they had been unable to work because their employer closed or lost business due to the pandemic—that is, they did not work at all or worked fewer hours at some point in the last 4 weeks due to the pandemic. This measure is down from 6.2 million in June. Among those who reported in July that they were unable to work because of pandemic-related closures or lost business, 9.1 percent received at least some pay from their employer for the hours not worked, little changed from the previous month. Among those not in the labor force in July, 1.6 million persons were prevented from looking for work due to the pandemic, essentially unchanged from June. (To be counted as unemployed, by definition, individuals must be either actively looking for work or on temporary layoff.)

These supplemental data come from questions added to the household survey beginning in May 2020 to help gauge the effects of the pandemic on the labor market. The data are not seasonally adjusted. Tables with estimates from the supplemental questions for all months are available online at www.bls.gov/cps/effects-of-the-coronavirus-covid-19-pandemic.htm.

 

Establishment Survey Data

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 943,000 in July, following a similar increase in June (+938,000). Nonfarm payroll employment in July is up by 16.7 million since April 2020 but is down by 5.7 million, or 3.7 percent, from its pre-pandemic level in February 2020. In July, notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, in local government education, and in professional and business services. 

In July, employment in leisure and hospitality increased by 380,000. Two-thirds of the job gain was in food services and drinking places (+253,000). Employment also continued to increase in accommodation (+74,000) and in arts, entertainment, and recreation (+53,000). Despite recent growth, employment in leisure and hospitality is down by 1.7 million, or 10.3 percent, from its level in February 2020.

In July, employment rose by 221,000 in local government education and by 40,000 in private education. Staffing fluctuations in education due to the pandemic have distorted the normal seasonal buildup and layoff patterns, likely contributing to the job gains in July. Without the typical seasonal employment increases earlier, there were fewer layoffs at the end of the school year, resulting in job gains after seasonal adjustment. These variations make it more challenging to discern the current employment trends in these education industries. Since February 2020, employment is down by 205,000 in local government education and 207,000 in private education.

Employment in professional and business services rose by 60,000 in July. Within the industry, employment in the professional and technical services component rose by 43,000 over the month and is 121,000 above its February 2020 level. (Professional and technical services includes industries such as accounting and bookkeeping services, management and technical consulting services, and scientific research and development services.)

By contrast, employment in the administrative and waste services component (which includes temporary help services) changed little over the month (+20,000) and is 577,000 lower than in February 2020. Employment in the management of companies and enterprises component was also little changed over the month (-3,000) but is 100,000 lower than the level in -4- February 2020.

Employment in professional and business services overall is down by 556,000 since February 2020. Transportation and warehousing added 50,000 jobs in July. Job growth occurred in transit and ground passenger transportation (+19,000), warehousing and storage (+11,000), and couriers and messengers (+8,000). Employment in transportation and warehousing has grown by 534,000 since April 2020; the industry has recovered 92.9 percent of the jobs lost during the February-April 2020 recession (-575,000).

The other services industry added 39,000 jobs in July, with gains in membership associations and organizations (+17,000) and in personal and laundry services (+15,000). Employment in other services is 236,000 lower than in February 2020. Health care added 37,000 jobs in July. Job gains in ambulatory health care services (+32,000) and hospitals (+18,000) more than offset a loss of 13,000 jobs in nursing and residential care facilities. Health care employment is down by 502,000 since February 2020.

Employment in manufacturing increased by 27,000 in July, largely in durable goods manufacturing. Within durable goods, job gains occurred in machinery (+7,000) and miscellaneous durable goods manufacturing (+6,000). Manufacturing employment is 433,000 below its February 2020 level. Employment in information increased by 24,000 over the month, with three-quarters of the gain in motion picture and sound recording industries (+18,000). Employment in information is down by 172,000 since February 2020.

Employment in financial activities rose by 22,000 over the month, largely in real estate and rental and leasing (+18,000). Employment in financial activities is down by 48,000 since February 2020. Employment in mining increased by 7,000 in July, reflecting a gain in support activities for mining (+6,000). Mining employment has risen by 49,000 since a trough in August 2020 but is 103,000 below a peak in January 2019. Employment in retail trade changed little in July (-6,000), following large increases in the prior 2 months.

In July, job gains in gasoline stations (+14,000), miscellaneous store retailers (+7,000), and nonstore retailers (+5,000) were more than offset by a loss in building material and garden supply stores (-34,000). Since February 2020, employment in retail trade is down by 270,000. In July, employment showed little change in construction and wholesale trade. In July, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 11 cents to $30.54, following increases in the prior 3 months.

Average hourly earnings for private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees also rose by 11 cents in July to $25.83. The data for recent months suggest that the rising demand for labor associated with the recovery from the pandemic may have put upward pressure on wages. However, because average hourly earnings vary widely across industries, the large employment fluctuations since February 2020 complicate the analysis of recent trends in average hourly earnings. 

In July, the average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 34.8 hours. In manufacturing, the average workweek increased by 0.2 hour to 40.5 hours, and overtime was unchanged at 3.2 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 34.2 hours.

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for May was revised up by 31,000, from +583,000 to +614,000, and the change for June was revised up by 88,000, from +850,000 to +938,000. With these revisions, employment in May and June combined is 119,000 higher than previously reported. (Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.)

  The Employment Situation for August is scheduled to be released on Friday, September 3, 2021, at 8:30 a.m. (ET)

 

June 2021 ADP U.S. Employment Report

 The ADP estimate, done in conjunction with Moody’s Analytics, has varied widely from the government’s official nonfarm payrolls report, particularly during the pandemic.

  • Private businesses in the US hired 692K workers in June of 2021, below a downwardly revised 886K in May but higher than forecasts of 600K.
  • Service-providing sector added 624K jobs led by leisure & hospitality (332K); education & health (123K); trade, transportation & utilities (62K); professional & business (53K); and financial activities (10K) while the information sector lost 4K jobs.
  • Goods-producing sector added 68K jobs, boosted by rises in construction (47K), manufacturing (19K) and natural resources and mining (2K).
  • Small businesses 215K vs 333K prior
  • Midsized 236K vs 338K prior
  • Larger 240K vs 308K prior

https://d3fy651gv2fhd3.cloudfront.net/charts/This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.?s=unitedstaadpempcha&v=202106302315V20200908 2x" src="https://d3fy651gv2fhd3.cloudfront.net/charts/united-states-adp-employment-change.png?s=unitedstaadpempcha&v=202106302315V20200908" alt="United States ADP Employment Change" style="color:White;">

“While payrolls are still nearly 7 million short of pre-COVID19 levels, job gains have totaled about 3 million since the beginning of 2021. Service providers, the hardest hit sector, continue to do the heavy lifting, with leisure and hospitality posting the strongest gain as businesses begin to reopen to full capacity across the country", said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP

 Source: Automatic Data Processing, Inc

Jobless Claims for the week ending June 26th 2021

Initial jobless claims 364K versus 390,000 estimate. Prior week revised to 415K vs 411 last week. The data is the lowest since March 14, 2020 4-week moving average of initial jobless claims 392.75K vs 398.75K.

Continuing claims rises to 3469K vs 3382K estimate. The prior week was revised 23K to 3413K from 3390K previously reported (was a record low last week) 4-week moving average of continuing claims came in at 3481.75K vs 3556.75. The 4-week moving average is at the lowest level since March 21, 2020.

The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending June 19 were in Pennsylvania (+14,715), Michigan (+1,862), and Texas (+1,814),

The largest decreases were in Illinois (-4,762), California (-4,112), Ohio (-2,955), Florida (-2,229), and Georgia (-1,826).

In addition, many states recently decided to withdraw from federal unemployment benefit programs, following reports that it has been more difficult to hire as the benefits pay more than most minimum wage jobs. source: U.S. Department of Labor

 

Challenger, Gray & Christmas June Job Cuts Report

US-based companies announced 20,476 job cuts in June of 2021, the least since June of 2000 and 88% lower than in the same period last year.

“Companies are holding on tight to their workers during a time of record job openings and very high job seeker confidence. We haven’t seen job cuts this low since the Dot-Com boom”, said Andrew Challenger, Senior Vice President of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.

So far this year, employers have announced plans to cut 212,661 jobs, down 87% from the same period last year and the least since 1995 with the most redundancies announced in the Aerospace/Defense, Telecommunications and Energy.

Source: Challenger, Gray and Christmas, Inc.

  

Source: AFP, Challenger, DOL, TradersCommunity Data, BLS

 

Source: AFP, Challenger, DOL, TradersCommunity Data, BLS

From The TraderCommunity Research Desk

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