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US housing starts rose 6.3% m/m in June, or 1643K v 1590K expected. Building permits were 1766K v 1750K expected. However Building permits fell 5.1% m/m, a leading economic indicator falling across all regions for single-family units

House Construction

The move suggests disruption and demographic influences.

US Housing Starts for June 2021:

  • US June housing starts 1.643m vs 1.590m expected
  • Sales up 6.3% m/m
  • Single-family housing starts jumped 6.3% to 1.643 million
  • Rate for units in buildings with five units or more increased 30% to 477,000.
  • The change in single-unit starts by region: Northeast (+34.4%); Midwest (-19.9%); South (+13.7%); and West (0.0%).
  • The number of units under construction at the end of the period was up 1.8% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.359 million. Meaning the second quarter average 2.7%  isabove the first quarter average, so it will be accounted for as a positive input in Q2 GDP forecasts.

The housing market has been supported by low interest rates and increasing demand from people moving away from big cities due to the coronavirus crisis, but the momentum could slow as rising lumber prices amid supply constraints could limit production and ease a shortage of homes.

US Building Permits for June 2021:

  • Building permits 1.598 million and above market expectations of 1.70 million. Prior permits 1.683m
  • Building permits in the United States fell 5.1%% from a month earlier.
  • Single family permits -6.3%
  • Permits for the volatile multifamily permits fell -2.6%
  • The change in single-unit permits by region: Northeast (-8.5%), Midwest (-5.8%); South (-6.0%); and West (-6.5%).

The big question is after the lockdown eases and the economy reopens how much further can housing starts go with the massive disruption and divergence with unemployment and wealth creation and erosion demographics.

Source: US Census 

From The TradersCommunity News Desk

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