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US in June added 850K non-farm payrolls jobs more than forecasted 720k, May prev 559k was revised to 583k. US June ADP employment +692K was higher than +600K expected. Unemployment rate rose to 5.9% from 5.8%. US Average Hourly Earnings (M/M) 0.3% unchanged.

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June 2021 U.S. Employment Report

The Covid-19 virus wreaked havoc on the global economy. The world's economy was shut down and much of America has stay at home orders. Jobless claims numbers have been improving after records and unfortunately the story is much worse as people have not all been able to return to work.

The May through November reports however were a surprise gain in jobs. The expectation had been for more recovery in job losses for December until new lockdowns came into affect and we saw a loss of 140,000 jobs. We rebounded Jan somewhat with 49,000 new jobs and an upwardly revised 468K in February. The US economy added 916K jobs in March of 2021, the strongest employment growth in 7 months, with the largest gains occurring in leisure and hospitality, public and private education, and construction. However the March number was revised lower in April to 770k from 916k. In May we saw 559K non-farm payrolls jobs, less than forecasted 674k new jobs, April prev 266k was revised to 278k. US in June added 850K non-farm payrolls jobs more than forecasted 720k, May prev 559k was revised to 583k. US June ADP employment +692K was higher than +600K expected.

 US Jobs June 2021

The market had expected the June report released Friday to show nonfarm payrolls rise 720k new jobs which it beat with 850k new jobs with a sputtering economy.  The volatile numbers point up how difficult estimating the jobs situation is amid an economy struggling to get back to normal following the coronavirus-inducted shutdown. The national unemployment rate had come off a 50 year low 3.5% with higher participation before the Covid-19 lockdown now to 5.8%.


 

June 2021 US Employment Report & Expectations

Employment:

  • Non-farm payrolls  850k+ vs +720 expected, Prior +559,000 (revised to 583k)
  • Unemployment rate  5.9% vs (est 5.6%; prev 5.8%)
  • Participation rate 61.6% v (est 61.7%; prev 61.6%)(63.3% highest since 2014)
  • Underemployment rate  9.8% (prev 10.2%)
  • Two month net revision  Prior +27K -78k +158k -159k +11k +15k +145k
  • Manufacturing payrolls +15k v est 25K; prevR +39k v +23K
  • Private payrolls  +662k vs +615K expected prev R +516k v 492k
  • Long-term unemployed at 4.0m vs 3.8m prev
  • The employment-population ratio  58% vs 58.0% prev (61% before pandemic)

Where the jobs were:

  • Leisure and hospitality increased by 343K.
  • Food and drinking places up 194k. It is still down by 2.2 million versus pre-pandemic
  • Local government education increased by 155K
  • Professional and business rose +72K
  • Retail trade, +67K Other +56K
  • Mining +10K
  • Construction -7K
  • Transportation and warehousing +11K
  • Manufacturing +15K

Wages:

  • Average hourly earnings m/m 0.3% (est 0.3%; prevR .04%; prev 0.5%)
  • Average hourly earnings y/y 3.6% (est 1.6%; prevR 1.9%; prev 2.0%)

Hours:

  • Average weekly hours All Employees: 34.7 (est 34.9; prevR 34.8; prev 34.9)

 

Household Survey Data

Both the unemployment rate, at 5.9 percent, and the number of unemployed persons, at 9.5 million, were little changed in June. These measures are down considerably from their recent highs in April 2020 but remain well above their levels prior to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic (3.5 percent and 5.7 million, respectively, in February 2020).

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (5.9 percent), adult women (5.5 percent), teenagers (9.9 percent), Whites (5.2 percent), Blacks (9.2 percent), Asians (5.8 percent), and Hispanics (7.4 percent) showed little or no change in June.

Among the unemployed, the number of job leavers—that is, unemployed persons who quit or voluntarily left their previous job and began looking for new employment—increased by 164,000 to 942,000 in June. The number of persons on temporary layoff, at 1.8 million, was essentially unchanged over the month. This measure is down considerably from the high of 18.0 million in April 2020 but is 1.1 million above the February 2020 level. The number of permanent job losers, at 3.2 million, was also essentially unchanged over the month but is 1.9 million higher than in February 2020. (See table A11.) In June, the number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) increased by 233,000 to 4.0 million, following a decline of 431,000 in May. This measure is 2.9 million higher than in February 2020. These long-term unemployed accounted for 42.1 percent of the total unemployed in June. The number of persons jobless less than 5 weeks, at 2.0 million, changed little in June.

The labor force participation rate was unchanged at 61.6 percent in June and has remained within a narrow range of 61.4 percent to 61.7 percent since June 2020. The participation rate is 1.7 percentage points lower than in February 2020. The employment-population ratio, at 58.0 percent, was also unchanged in June but is up by 0.6 percentage point since December 2020. However, this measure is 3.1 percentage points below its February 2020 level.

The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons decreased by 644,000 to 4.6 million in June. This decline reflected a drop in the number of persons whose hours were cut due to slack work or business conditions. The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons is up by 229,000 since February 2020. These individuals, who would have preferred full-time employment, were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs.

In June, the number of persons not in the labor force who currently want a job was 6.4 million, little changed over the month but up by 1.4 million since February 2020. These individuals were not counted as unemployed because they were not actively looking for work during the last 4 weeks or were unavailable to take a job.

Among those not in the labor force who currently want a job, the number of persons marginally attached to the labor force, at 1.8 million, changed little in June but is up by 393,000 since February 2020. These individuals wanted and were available for work and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months but had not looked for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. The number of discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached who believed that no jobs were available for them, was 617,000 in June, essentially unchanged from the previous month but 216,000 higher than in February 2020.

 

Household Survey Supplemental Data

In June, 14.4 percent of employed persons teleworked because of the coronavirus pandemic, down from 16.6 percent in the prior month. These data refer to employed persons who teleworked or worked at home for pay at some point in the last 4 weeks specifically because of the pandemic. In June, 6.2 million persons reported that they had been unable to work because their employer closed or lost business due to the pandemic—that is, they did not work at all or worked fewer hours at some point in the last 4 weeks due to the pandemic. This measure is down from 7.9 million in May. Among those who reported in June that they were unable to work because of pandemic-related closures or lost business, 10.0 percent received at least some pay from their employer for the hours not worked, little changed from the previous month.

Among those not in the labor force in June, 1.6 million persons were prevented from looking for work due to the pandemic. This measure is down from 2.5 million in May. (To be counted as unemployed, by definition, individuals must be either actively looking for work or on temporary layoff.) These supplemental data come from questions added to the household survey beginning in May 2020 to help gauge the effects of the pandemic on the labor market. The data are not seasonally adjusted. Tables with estimates from the supplemental questions for all months are available online at www.bls.gov/cps/effects-of-the-coronavirus-covid-19-pandemic.htm

 

Establishment Survey Data

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 850,000 in June, following increases of 583,000 in May and 269,000 in April. In June, nonfarm payroll employment is up by 15.6 million since April 2020 but is down by 6.8 million, or 4.4 percent, from its pre-pandemic level in February 2020. Notable job gains in June occurred in leisure and hospitality, public and private education, professional and business services, retail trade, and other services.

In June, employment in leisure and hospitality increased by 343,000, as pandemic-related restrictions continued to ease in some parts of the country. Over half of the job gain was in food services and drinking places (+194,000). Employment also continued to increase in accommodation (+75,000) and in arts, entertainment, and recreation (+74,000). Employment in leisure and hospitality is down by 2.2 million, or 12.9 percent, from its level in February 2020.

In June, employment rose by 155,000 in local government education, by 75,000 in state government education, and by 39,000 in private education. In both public and private education, staffing fluctuations due to the pandemic, in part reflecting the return to in-person learning and other schoolrelated activities, have distorted the normal seasonal buildup and layoff patterns, likely contributing to the job gains in June. (Without the typical seasonal employment increases earlier, there were fewer layoffs at the end of the school year, resulting in job gains after seasonal adjustment.) These variations make it more challenging to discern the current employment trends in these industries. Since February 2020, employment is down by 414,000 in local government education, by 168,000 in state government education, and by 255,000 in private education.

Employment in professional and business services rose by 72,000 in June but is down by 633,000 since February 2020. In June, employment rose in temporary help services (+33,000), advertising and -4- related services (+8,000), scientific research and development services (+7,000), and legal services (+6,000).

Retail trade added 67,000 jobs in June, but employment is down by 303,000, or 1.9 percent, since February 2020. Over the month, job growth in clothing and clothing accessories stores (+28,000), general merchandise stores (+25,000), miscellaneous store retailers (+13,000), and automobile dealers (+8,000) was partially offset by losses in food and beverage stores (-13,000) and health and personal care stores (-7,000).

The other services industry added 56,000 jobs in June, with gains in personal and laundry services (+29,000), in membership associations and organizations (+18,000), and in repair and maintenance (+9,000). Employment in other services is 297,000 lower than in February 2020. Employment in social assistance rose by 32,000 in June, largely in child day care services (+25,000). Employment in social assistance is down by 236,000 from its level in February 2020. In June, wholesale trade added 21,000 jobs, with gains in both the durable and nondurable goods components (+14,000 and +9,000, respectively). Employment in wholesale trade is 192,000 lower than in February 2020.

Employment in mining rose by 10,000 in June, reflecting a gain in support activities for mining. Mining employment is down by 110,000 since a peak in January 2019.

Employment in manufacturing changed little in June (+15,000). Within the industry, job gains in furniture and related products (+9,000), fabricated metal products (+6,000), and primary metals (+3,000) were partially offset by a loss in motor vehicles and parts (-12,000). Employment in manufacturing is down by 481,000 from its level in February 2020.

Employment in transportation and warehousing was little changed in June (+11,000). Employment gains in warehousing and storage (+14,000), air transportation (+8,000), and truck transportation (+6,000) were partially offset by a loss in couriers and messengers (-24,000). Since February 2020, employment in transportation and warehousing is down by 94,000.

Construction employment changed little in June (-7,000). Over-the-month job losses in nonresidential specialty trade contractors (-15,000) and heavy and civil engineering construction (-11,000) were partially offset by a gain in residential specialty trade contractors (+13,000). Employment in construction is 238,000 lower than in February 2020.

In June, employment showed little change in other major industries, including information, financial activities, and health care.

Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 10 cents to $30.40 in June, following increases in May and April (+13 cents and +20 cents, respectively). Average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose by 10 cents to $25.68 in June. The data for recent months suggest that the rising demand for labor associated with the recovery from the pandemic may have put upward pressure on wages. However, because average hourly earnings vary widely across industries, the large employment fluctuations since February 2020 complicate the analysis of recent trends in average hourly earnings.

In June, the average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls decreased by 0.1 hour to 34.7 hours. In manufacturing, the average workweek fell by 0.2 hour to 40.2 hours, and overtime declined by 0.1 hour to 3.2 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls declined by 0.2 hour to 34.1 hours.

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for April was revised down by 9,000, from +278,000 to +269,000, and the change for May was revised up by 24,000, from +559,000 to +583,000. With these revisions, employment in April and May combined is 15,000 higher than previously reported. (Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.)

 The Employment Situation for July is scheduled to be released on Friday, August 6, 2021, at 8:30 a.m. (ET)

 

June 2021 ADP U.S. Employment Report

 The ADP estimate, done in conjunction with Moody’s Analytics, has varied widely from the government’s official nonfarm payrolls report, particularly during the pandemic.

  • Private businesses in the US hired 692K workers in June of 2021, below a downwardly revised 886K in May but higher than forecasts of 600K.
  • Service-providing sector added 624K jobs led by leisure & hospitality (332K); education & health (123K); trade, transportation & utilities (62K); professional & business (53K); and financial activities (10K) while the information sector lost 4K jobs.
  • Goods-producing sector added 68K jobs, boosted by rises in construction (47K), manufacturing (19K) and natural resources and mining (2K).
  • Small businesses 215K vs 333K prior
  • Midsized 236K vs 338K prior
  • Larger 240K vs 308K prior

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“While payrolls are still nearly 7 million short of pre-COVID19 levels, job gains have totaled about 3 million since the beginning of 2021. Service providers, the hardest hit sector, continue to do the heavy lifting, with leisure and hospitality posting the strongest gain as businesses begin to reopen to full capacity across the country", said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP

 Source: Automatic Data Processing, Inc

Jobless Claims for the week ending June 26th 2021

Initial jobless claims 364K versus 390,000 estimate. Prior week revised to 415K vs 411 last week. The data is the lowest since March 14, 2020 4-week moving average of initial jobless claims 392.75K vs 398.75K.

Continuing claims rises to 3469K vs 3382K estimate. The prior week was revised 23K to 3413K from 3390K previously reported (was a record low last week) 4-week moving average of continuing claims came in at 3481.75K vs 3556.75. The 4-week moving average is at the lowest level since March 21, 2020.

The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending June 19 were in Pennsylvania (+14,715), Michigan (+1,862), and Texas (+1,814),

The largest decreases were in Illinois (-4,762), California (-4,112), Ohio (-2,955), Florida (-2,229), and Georgia (-1,826).

In addition, many states recently decided to withdraw from federal unemployment benefit programs, following reports that it has been more difficult to hire as the benefits pay more than most minimum wage jobs. source: U.S. Department of Labor

 

Challenger, Gray & Christmas June Job Cuts Report

US-based companies announced 20,476 job cuts in June of 2021, the least since June of 2000 and 88% lower than in the same period last year.

“Companies are holding on tight to their workers during a time of record job openings and very high job seeker confidence. We haven’t seen job cuts this low since the Dot-Com boom”, said Andrew Challenger, Senior Vice President of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.

So far this year, employers have announced plans to cut 212,661 jobs, down 87% from the same period last year and the least since 1995 with the most redundancies announced in the Aerospace/Defense, Telecommunications and Energy.

Source: Challenger, Gray and Christmas, Inc.

  

Source: AFP, Challenger, DOL, TradersCommunity Data, BLS

 

Source: AFP, Challenger, DOL, TradersCommunity Data, BLS

From The TraderCommunity Research Desk

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