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The US Labor Department reported another new 661 million non farm paroll jobs in September.  Unemployment is recovering after the Coronavirus hit the economy as people return to work. The unemployment rate fell to 7.9% v. 8.1% estimate, Prior month 8.2%

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September 2020 U.S. Employment Report

 US Jobs Sep 2020

The Covid-19 virus has wreaked havoc on the global economy. The world's economy as shut down and much of America has stay at home orders. Jobless claims numbers have been records and unfortunately the story is much worse as people have not all been able to file. The May through August reports however were a surprise gain in jobs. The expectation was for more recovery in job losses for August.

The market expected the September report released Friday to see nonfarm payrolls rise 875,000 with the recovering economy. The ADP report this week showed private hiring at just 749,000 jobs. Last month NFP came in with gains of 1.489,000  Logic suggests more volatility in the hiring data. The volatile numbers point up how difficult estimating the jobs situation is amid an economy struggling to get back to normal following the coronavirus-inducted shutdown. The national unemployment rate had come off a 50 year low 3.5% with higher participation before the Covid-19 lockdown now to 7.9%.

September 2020 US Employment Report Expectations

Employment:

  • Non-farm payrolls   661.000 vs 875,000 expected, Prior 1.371,000 (revised to 1489,000 )
  • Unemployment rate 7.9% v 8.2% expected/prior 8.4%
  • Participation rate 61.4% vs 61.8% exp 61.7% prior (63.3% highest since 2014)
  • Underemployment rate  12.8% vs 14.5% Exp 14.2% prior
  • Two month net revision +145k Prior -39k
  • Manufacturing payrolls +66k vs +65k exp +29k prior
  • Private payrolls +877k vs +855k exp +1027k prior

Wages:

  • Average hourly earnings +0.1% m/m v  0.2% Expected +0.0% m/m Prior
  • Average hourly earnings +4.7% y/y v 4.7% Prior Expected
  • Average weekly hours 34.7 v  prev 34.6 Expected/Prior

Household Survey Data

 

Household Survey Supplemental Data

 

Establishment Survey Data

 

 

Source: AFP, Challenger, DOL, TradersCommunity Data, BLS

From The TraderCommunity Research Desk

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