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Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased 3.2% in the first quarter of 2019, according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Core PCE +1.3% vs +1.4% expected

US GDP 1Q 19

GDP highlights

Growth

  • Q4 2.2% after initially seen at 2.6%
  • Q3 .4%
  • Personal consumption +1.2% v +1.0% expected
  • Q4 personal consumption  +2.5%
  • Consumer spending on durables -5.3% v +3.6% prior
  • Business investment +2.7%
  • Home investment -2.8%
  • Exports +3.7%
  • Imports -3.7%
  • Net trade added 1.03 pp to GDP (largest in six years)
  • Inventories add 0.65 pp to GDP
  • Inventories +$128.4 billion
  • Government spending added 0.41 pp to GDP
  • GDP ex motor vehicles +3.2% v +2.1% prior
  • Final domestic demand +1.3% -- slowest since Q2 2013
  • Residential construction -2.8%, the fifth consecutive quarterly decline

GDP Quarter on Quarter

Inflation

  • GDP price index +0.9% v +1.2% expected (prior 1.7%)
  • Core PCE +1.3% q/q vs 1.4% expected (prior  1.8%)
  • GDP deflator +0.6% vs +1.3% expected

Personal Income

Current-dollar personal income increased $147.2 billion in the first quarter, compared with an increase of $229.0 billion in the fourth quarter. The deceleration reflected downturns in personal interest income, personal dividend income, and proprietors’ income that were partly offset by an acceleration in personal current transfer receipts.

Disposable personal income increased $116.0 billion, or 3.0 percent, in the first quarter, compared with an increase of $222.9 billion, or 5.8 percent, in the fourth quarter.

Real disposable personal income increased 2.4 percent, compared with an increase of 4.3 percent. Personal saving was $1.11 trillion in the first quarter, compared with $1.07 trillion in the fourth quarter.

The personal saving rate -- personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income -- was 7.0 percent in the first quarter, compared with 6.8 percent in the fourth quarter.

Source:Bureau of Economic Analysis

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