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Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased 2.6% in the fourth quarter of 2018, according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Core PCE +1.7% vs +1.6% expected

 US GDP Q418

This report has been delayed because of the government shutdown and comes with many caveats about data collection, with that said it has come out measurably stronger than expected, lifting both equity futures and the US dollar initially.

Consumption at 2.8% was not a big stand out but eyes on Capitl Expenditure at +6.2%. Inventories had expected to be a small drag but provided a small boost, net exports also weren't as negative as feared (thank oil and LNG for that). Revisions down are the risk given what we have seen in 2019.

GDP highlights


  • Q3 GDP was 3.4%
  • Q2 GDP was 4.2%
  • Personal consumption +2.8% v +3.0% expected
  • Q3 personal consumption was 3.5%
  • GDP ex motor vehicles +2.6%
  • Year-over-year GDP +3.1%
  • 2018 GDP growth was 2.9% (best since 2015)
  • Commerce Dept said government shutdown subtracted about 0.1 pp from Q4 Inflation data


  • GDP price index 1.8% vs 1.7% expected (prior was 1.8%)
  • Core PCE 1.7% q/q vs 1.6% expected (prior was 1.6%)

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

From The TraderCommunity News Desk

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