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The U.S. jobs report for January a robust 304,000 new NFP jobs following revised December  non farm payrolls of 222,000 new jobs with unemployment rising to 4.0% off 48 year lows. The best four month stretch of gains since 2014.


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Despite the Fed having raised rates two months ago, market chaos and the government shutdown and the resultant uncertainty with Federal Reserve President Powell's seem unsure of the path for wages. In October American wages hit their highest levels in a decade at 3.1%, this trend continued as expected in December. The December numbers were also expected to get a Thanksgiving and Christmas lift as retailers hire hundreds of extra staff to cope with the upcoming holiday season. With that January was expected to see just new 165,000 NFP jobs.

The market expected the Janauary report released Friday to see nonfarm payrolls rise in line with longer-run trends in monthly employment growth at a consensus of 165,000 new jobs. Logic suggested a return to the mean after the volatility in the hiring data. The wages data gives us indications of the FOMC plans on rates into 2019 and 2020. Unemployment rose from a 48 year low on higher with higher participation and the two month NFP revision was -70,000 change to jobs.

January 2019 U.S. Employment Report

 US Jobs Jan 2019


Employment:

  • Non-farm payrolls  302k vs +165K expected, Prior 222K (revised from 312K)
  • Unemployment rate 4,0% vs 3.9% expected/prior
  • Participation rate 63.2% vs 63.0% exp (highest since 2014)
  • Underemployment rate 8.1 % vs 7.6% prior
  • Two month net revision -70K
  • Private payrolls +206K vs 175K expected 

Wages:

  • Average hourly earnings +3.2% y/y vs 3.2% exp, Prior 3.1% y/y
  • Average hourly earnings +0.1% m/m vs +0.3% m/m exp (prior +0.4%)
  • Hours worked 34.5 vs 34.5 expected Prior hours worked 34.5  

 US Jobs Jan 2019 Earnings by Industry

Household Survey Data

Both the unemployment rate, at 4.0 percent, and the number of unemployed persons, at 6.5 million, edged up in January. The impact of the partial federal government shutdown contributed to the uptick in these measures. Among the unemployed, the number who reported being on temporary layoff increased by 175,000. This figure includes furloughed federal employees who were classified as unemployed on temporary layoff under the definitions used in the household survey.

For information about annual population adjustments to the household survey estimates, see the note on page 7 and tables B and C. For more information on the classification of workers affected by the partial federal government shutdown, see the box note on page 5.) 

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for Hispanics increased to 4.9 percent in January. The jobless rates for adult men (3.7 percent), adult women (3.6 percent), teenagers (12.9 percent), Whites (3.5 percent), Blacks (6.8 percent), and Asians (3.1 percent) showed little change over the month.

In January, the number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was little changed at 1.3 million and accounted for 19.3 percent of the unemployed.

The labor force participation rate, at 63.2 percent, and the employment-population ratio, at 60.7 percent, changed little over the month; both measures were up by 0.5 percentage point over the year.

The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) increased by about one-half million to 5.1 million in January. Nearly all of this increase occurred in the private sector and may reflect the impact of the partial federal government shutdown. (Persons employed part time for economic reasons would have preferred fulltime employment but were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs.)

In January, 1.6 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force, essentially unchanged from a year earlier. (Data are not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. 

Among the marginally attached, there were 426,000 discouraged workers in January, little different than a year earlier. (Data are not seasonally adjusted.) Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them. The remaining 1.2 million persons marginally attached to the labor force in January had not searched for work for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities. 

US Jobs Jan 2019 Earnings by Industry

Establishment Survey Data

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 304,000 in January, compared with an average monthly gain of 223,000 in 2018. In January, employment grew in several industries, including leisure and hospitality, construction, health care, and transportation and warehousing. There were no discernible impacts of the partial federal government shutdown on the estimates of employment, hours, and earnings from the establishment survey.

(See table B-1. For information about the annual benchmark process, see -3- the note on page 6 and table A. For more information on the classification of workers affected by the partial federal government shutdown, see the box note on page 5.)

In January, employment in leisure and hospitality rose by 74,000. Within the industry, job gains occurred in food services and drinking places (+37,000) and in amusements, gambling, and recreation (+32,000). Over the year, leisure and hospitality has added 410,000 jobs. Construction employment rose by 52,000 in January.

Job gains occurred among specialty trade contractors, with increases in both the nonresidential (+19,000) and residential (+15,000) components. Employment also rose in heavy and civil engineering construction (+10,000) and residential building (+9,000).

Construction has added 338,000 jobs over the past 12 months. Employment in health care increased by 42,000 in January. Within the industry, job gains occurred in ambulatory health care services (+22,000) and hospitals (+19,000). Health care has added 368,000 jobs over the past year. Over the month, employment in transportation and warehousing rose by 27,000, following little change in December.

In January, job gains occurred in warehousing and storage (+15,000) and among couriers and messengers (+7,000). Over the year, employment in transportation and warehousing has increased by 219,000. In January, retail trade employment edged up by 21,000. Job gains occurred in sporting goods, hobby, book, and music stores (+17,000), while general merchandise stores lost jobs (-12,000).

Employment in retail trade has shown little net change over the past 12 months (+26,000). Mining employment increased by 7,000 in January. The industry has added 64,000 jobs over the year, almost entirely in support activities for mining.

Employment in professional and business services continued to trend up over the month (+30,000) and has increased by 546,000 in the past 12 months. Employment in manufacturing continued to trend up in January (+13,000).

Over-the-month job gains occurred in durable goods (+20,000), while employment in nondurable goods changed little (-7,000). Manufacturing employment has increased by 261,000 over the year, with more than four-fifths of the gain in durable goods industries. Employment in federal government was essentially unchanged in January (+1,000).

Federal employees on furlough during the partial government shutdown were counted as employed in the establishment survey because they worked or received pay (or will receive pay) for the pay period that included the 12th of the month.

Employment showed little change over the month in other major industries, including wholesale trade, information, and financial activities. The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 34.5 hours in January. In manufacturing, both the workweek and overtime decreased by 0.1 hour to 40.8 hours and 3.5 hours

The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 34.5 hours in January. In manufacturing, both the workweek and overtime decreased by 0.1 hour to 40.8 hours and 3.5 hours, respectively. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls held at 33.7 hours.

In January, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 3 cents to $27.56, following a 10-cent gain in December. Over the year, average hourly earnings have increased by 85 cents, or 3.2 percent. Average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees increased by 3 cents to $23.12 in January.

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for November was revised up from +176,000 to +196,000, and the change for December was revised down from +312,000 to +222,000. With these revisions, employment gains in November and December combined were 70,000 less than previously reported. After revisions, job gains have averaged 241,000 per month over the last 3 months. (Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors. The annual benchmark process also contributed to the November and December revisions.)

The Employment Situation for February is scheduled to be released on Friday, March 8, 2019, at 8:30 a.m. (EST).

 

Source: AFP, TradersCommunity Data, BLS

From The TraderCommunity Research Desk

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