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The U.S. jobs report for December a robust 312,000 new NFP jobs following revised November non farm payrolls of 161,000 new jobs with unemployment rising to 3.9% off 48 year lows. We are still digesting the effect trade wars on jobs with tensions affecting employers. 

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Despite the Fed having raised rates last month and the resultant market fallout Federal Reserve President Powell's seem unsure of the path for wages. In October American wages hit their highest levels in a decade at 3.1%, this trend has continued as expected in December. November's 155,000 was lower than expected, balancing October's strong rebound in jobs growth iof 250,000 came after a hurricane-induced slowdown to 134,000 jobs in September. The December numbers were also expected to get a Thanksgiving and Christmas lift as retailers hire hundreds of extra staff to cope with the upcoming holiday season.

The market expected the December report released Friday to see nonfarm payrolls rise in line with longer-run trends in monthly employment growth at a consensus of 184,000 new jobs. Logic suggested a return to the mean after the volatility in the hiring data. The wages data gives us indications of the FOMC plans on rates into 2019 and 2020. Unemployment rose from a 48 year low on higher with higher participation and the two month NFP revision was +58,000 change to jobs.

December U.S. Employment Report

US Jobs Dec 2018 


Employment:

  • Non-farm payrolls  312k vs +198K expected, Prior 237K (revised from 250K)
  • Unemployment rate 3,9% vs 3.7% expected/prior
  • Participation rate 63.1% vs 62.7% prior
  • Underemployment rate 7.6% vs 7.4% prior
  • Two month net revision +58K
  • Private payrolls +301K vs 185K expected 

Wages:

  • Average hourly earnings +3.2% y/y vs 3.0% exp, Prior 3.1% y/y
  • Average hourly earnings +0.4% m/m vs +0.3% m/m exp
  • Hours worked 34.4 vs 34.5 expected Prior hours worked 34.5  

US Jobs Dec 2018 Earnings by Industry

Household Survey Data

The unemployment rate rose by 0.2 percentage point to 3.9 percent in December, and the number of unemployed persons increased by 276,000 to 6.3 million. A year earlier, the jobless rate was 4.1 percent, and the number of unemployed persons was 6.6 million.

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (3.6 percent) and Blacks (6.6 percent) increased in December. The jobless rates for adult women (3.5 percent), teenagers (12.5 percent), Whites (3.4 percent), Asians (3.3 percent), and Hispanics (4.4 percent) showed little or no change over the month.

Among the unemployed, the number of job leavers increased by 142,000 in December to 839,000. Job leavers are unemployed persons who quit or otherwise voluntarily left their previous job and immediately began looking for new employment. 

In December, the number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was little changed at 1.3 million and accounted for 20.5 percent of the unemployed. Over the year, the number of long-term unemployed was down by 205,000. (See table A-12.) The labor force participation rate, at 63.1 percent, changed little in December, and the employmentpopulation ratio was 60.6 percent for the third consecutive month. Both measures were up by 0.4 percentage point over the year.

The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers), at 4.7 million, changed little in December but was down by 329,000 over the year. These individuals, who would have preferred full-time employment, were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs.

In December, 1.6 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force, little changed from a year earlier. (Data are not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. 

Among the marginally attached, there were 375,000 discouraged workers in December, down by 99,000 from a year earlier. (Data are not seasonally adjusted.) Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them. The remaining 1.2 million persons marginally attached to the labor force in December had not searched for work for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities. 

Establishment Survey Data

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 312,000 in December. Job gains occurred in health care, food services and drinking places, construction, manufacturing, and retail trade. Payroll employment rose by 2.6 million in 2018, compared with a gain of 2.2 million in 2017.

US Jobs Dec 2018. Industry

Employment in health care rose by 50,000 in December. Within the industry, job gains occurred in ambulatory health care services (+38,000) and hospitals (+7,000). Health care added 346,000 jobs in 2018, more than the gain of 284,000 jobs in 2017. In December, employment in food services and drinking places increased by 41,000. Over the year, the industry added 235,000 jobs, similar to the increase in 2017 (+261,000).

Construction employment rose by 38,000 in December, with job gains in heavy and civil engineering construction (+16,000) and nonresidential specialty trade construction (+16,000). The construction industry added 280,000 jobs in 2018, compared with an increase of 250,000 in 2017.

Manufacturing added 32,000 jobs in December. Most of the gain occurred in the durable goods component (+19,000), with job growth in fabricated metal products (+7,000) and in computer and electronic products (+4,000). Employment in the nondurable goods component also increased over the month (+13,000). Manufacturing employment increased by 284,000 over the year, with about threefourths of the gain in durable goods industries. Manufacturing had added 207,000 jobs in 2017.

In December, employment in retail trade rose by 24,000. Job growth occurred in general merchandise stores (+15,000) and automobile dealers (+6,000). These gains were partially offset by a job loss in sporting goods, hobby, book, and music stores (-9,000). Retail trade employment increased by 92,000 in 2018, after little net change in 2017 (-29,000).

Over the month, employment in professional and business services continued to trend up (+43,000). The industry added 583,000 jobs in 2018, outpacing the 458,000 jobs added in 2017. Employment in other major industries, including mining, wholesale trade, transportation and warehousing, information, financial activities, and government, showed little change over the month.

The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 0.1 hour to 34.5 hours in December. In manufacturing, both the workweek and overtime increased by 0.1 hour to 40.9 hours and 3.6 hours, respectively. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls held at 33.7 hours. (See tables B-2 and B-7.) In December, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose 11 cents to $27.48.

Over the year, average hourly earnings have increased by 84 cents, or 3.2 percent. Average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees increased by 9 cents to $23.05 in December. (See tables B-3 and B-8.) The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for November was revised up from +155,000 to +176,000, and the change for October was revised up from +237,000 to +274,000.

With these revisions, employment gains in October and November combined were 58,000 more than previously reported. (Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.) After revisions, job gains have averaged 254,000 per month over the last 3 months. _____________

The Employment Situation for January is scheduled to be released on Friday, February 1, 2019, at 8:30 a.m. (EST).

November U.S. Employment Report Recap

US Jobs Nov 2018


Employment:

  • Non-farm payrolls  155k vs +198K expected, Prior 237K (revised from 250K)
  • Unemployment rate 3.7% vs 3.7% expected/prior
  • Participation rate 62.9% vs 62.7% prior
  • Underemployment rate 7.6% vs 7.4% prior
  • Two month net revision -12K
  • Private payrolls +161K vs 198K expected 

Wages:

  • Average hourly earnings +3,1% y/y vs 3.1% exp, Prior  3.1% y/y
  • Average hourly earnings +0.2% m/m vs +0.3% m/m exp
  • Hours worked 34.4 vs 34.5 expected Prior hours worked 34.5    

 

 

Source: AFP, TradersCommunity Data, BLS

From The TraderCommunity Research Desk

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