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July's U.S. jobs report added more non-farm jobs, 209,000 over the 180,000 expected the Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Friday. The unemployment rate is back at a 16-year low of 4.3%. Of note was hiring in the beleaguered manufacturing sector sector increased 16,000.

A concern for the Fed has been wage growth, there is some relief as it ticks higher from June. Average hourly earnings rose by 0.3% month-on-month, and 2.5% year-on-year. Economic theory is out the window as wages are barely rising with the unemployment rate is at a post-crisis low. This brings into question what is the real unemployment rate and the true inflation, cost of living rates.


It isn't that simple though as the Fed's largely experimental policy keeps surprising them. There has not been the wage growth anticipated based on historical models and the leaned on economic relationships. With the social payments and huge black market in the U.S. there has not been a recovery in the labor participation rate either. Hence we get soft productivity and inflation dynamics in a politically challenged nation.

Bureau of Labor Statistics June Employment Report
Release Time: Friday 4 August 2017 - 8:30 ET

  • Employment
  • July non-farm payrolls +209K vs +180K expected, 222K (revised to 231K)
  • Two-month net revision +2K
  • Private payrolls +205K vs +180K exp
  • Manufacturing payrolls +16K vs +5K exp
  • Unemployment rate 4.3% vs 4.3% exp
  • Participation rate 62.9% vs 62.8% prior
  • Underemployment rate 8.6% vs 8.6% prior

Earnings:

  • Average hourly earnings +0.3% vs +0.3% m/m expected, Prior +0.2% m/m
  • Average hourly earnings 2.5% vs +2.4% y/y, Prior +2.5% y/y
  • Average weekly hours 34.5 vs 34.5 expected


Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

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