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Chicago soybean futures fell under $13 a bushel near 35 week lows. Hurricane Ida halted traffic on the Mississippi river and caused power outages and damaged grain elevators and port terminals. Prices way up lower demand and trapped supply.

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Hurricane Ida Damage

ida damaged a grain export elevator owned by global grain trader Cargill Inc.  Rival shipper CHS warned on Monday that its grain facility could be without power for weeks after the storm tore though the busiest U.S. grains port. Cargill said its Reserve terminal in Louisiana, one of two the company operates along the Mississippi River near the Gulf of Mexico, "sustained significant damage" when the storm roared ashore.

The storm has disrupted grain and soybean shipments from the Mississippi Gulf, which accounts for about 60% of U.S. exports, at a time when global supplies are tight with high freight costs and strong global demand.

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Bunge had hoped to restart operations on 31 August after shutting down on Saturday ahead of the storm. But power to the facility remains out with no estimate for when it may be restored, Seidel said. Archer-Daniels-Midland will assess damage to four New Orleans grain elevators and port operations it closed over the weekend ahead of the hurricane, spokeswoman Jackie Anderson said.

The concern is that aleady high supply is trapped for a time in a difficult export period. WASDE had raised beginning soybean stocks on lower 2020/21 crush and exports

Soybean prices are on track to end August with a fourth straight month of losses, the longest streak since 2014 for soy.

Soybeans

The most active soybean contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) fell under $12.92 a bushel

Daily:

Soybeans futures have continued to collapse since breaking down in July which accelerated with a kiss of death when Tenkan kissed Kijun.  Resistance remains the 50 dma and he cloud.

Soybeans D 8 27 2021

Weekly:

Soybeans failed at the weekly +2/8 retest near 16.30 and from there have collapsed to lows not seen since December 2020 under $13.  The contract closed at the weekly cloud and under the weekly 50ma for the third week.

Soybeans W 8 27 2021

 

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) August 12, 2021

Soybean U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2021/22 include higher beginning stocks and lower production, crush, and exports. Beginning soybean stocks are raised on lower 2020/21 crush and exports.

Soybean production for 2021/22 is forecast at 4.34 billion bushels, down 66 million on lower yields. Harvested area is forecast at 86.7 million acres, unchanged from July. The first survey-based soybean yield forecast of 50.0 bushels per acre is reduced 0.8 bushels from last month.

Soybean supplies for 2020/21 are projected at 4.5 billion bushels, down 3 percent from last year. Soybean crush is reduced 20 million bushels on a lower domestic soybean meal disappearance forecast which is reduced in line with the prior year, and lower soybean meal exports.

With soybean exports down 20 million bushels on lower supplies, ending stocks are forecast at 155 million bushels, unchanged from last month

The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2021/22 is forecast at $13.70 per bushel, unchanged from last month. The soybean meal price is forecast at $385 per short ton, down 10 dollars. The soybean oil price forecast is unchanged at 65.0 cents per pound

Source: USDA 

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