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Sell MortimerCorn and Sobean Futures were crushed over 5% after the USDA realised higher than expected production and yields Tuesday. Both contracts were sitting vulnerable after triple tops and trading under the Ichimoku clouds. 

  • USDA raised up corn production to an estimated 14.184 billion bushels up 31 million bushels from the August projection, but still 6% lower than the 2016-17 crop. The average corn yield at 169.9 bushels per acre. 
  • USDA raised up soybean production to a record 4.431 billion bushels up 50-million bushels from the August forecast, still down 2.2 bushels from the 2016-17 crop. The average soybean yield was raised 0.5 bushel to 49.9 bushels an acre.

Soybeans

  • USDA lowered new-crop beginning stocks by 25 million bushels but with production up 50 million bushels still was offset.
  • USDA raised soybean exports by 25 million bushels to 2.25 billion bushels.
  • USDA left 2017-18 soybean ending stocks unchanged at 475 million bushels.
  • USDA lowered the  farm price for soybeans 10 cents a bushel to an average of $9.20.

Globally, soybean production for 2017-18 is forecast at 348.44 million metric tons, an increase of 1.08 mmt from last month. Global ending stocks for soybeans are projected at 97.53 mmt, a decline of 250,000 metric tons from last month's forecast.

Soybean Crop Report

Corn

  • USDA raised 2017-18 ending stocks to 2.335 billion bushels, up 62 million bushels from August report.
  • USDA lowered old-crop ending stocks by 20 million bushels further impacting futures prices lower with the 31 million bushels of higher production,
  • USDA lowered total corn use by 50 million bushels with feed and residual use was raised 25 million bushels offset by 25 million bushels of lower ethanol use.
  • USDA lowered the  farm price for corn by 10 cents a bushel to an average of $3.20.

USDA lowered global beginning stocks for 2017-18 by 1.65 million metric tons and lowered global corn production by 0.84 mmt. USDA lowered global exports for 2017 by 1.45 mmt with estimated global ending stocks at 202.47 mmt, up 1.6 mmt from last month's projections.

 

Corn Crop Report

Source: USDA https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/latest.pdf

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Knovawave @knovawave

 

 

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