Commodities

Google Ad

The Australian goverment raised its forecasts for iron ore, LNG and metallurgical coal prices for 2018 and 2019 in the Resources and Energy Quarterly report. However in the long term it expects prices in iron ore to fall. 

The Australian dollar has been under pressure since the U.S. China trade tit for tat but there are more importers than China for Australia. Australian mining companies are seen locking in the highest Japan coal deal since 2012.

The lift in iron ore prices, liquefied natural gas (LNG) volumes grew and robust gold output proved a boon to Australia's mining sector's recovery. Western Australia’s resources sector surged 16% in sales revenue during 2017 to A$108.8 billion.

With the U.S. placing tariffs on China sparking trade tensions after aluminum and steel tariffs it is important to anaylse the backdrop with the production and demand gap. Then throw in the ramp in production in India and China.

Australia's low grade iron ore miner Fortescue Metals Group lowered its fiscal year ending June 2018 price realisation guidance to near 65% of the average benchmark S&P Global Platts 62 CFR index following sluggish demand growth from China.

In the back drop of trade wars we note coal shipping vessels continue to queue for Australian coal. Underscoring that Australia is in the middle of the US-China crossfire PWCS coal terminals' vessel rose to six ships in just a week.

Wool prices reversed trend at Australian wool auction sales this week as prompt demand rose with lighter volumes on offer. A falling Australian dollar impacted by China trade uncertainty was also supportive.

US net corn export sales continue to rise. Mexico and Japan are the two largest destination for American corn. The Department of Agriculture reported current crop and next crop corn were up 35% from the previous week.

American agricultural markets may be at risk should China choose to retaliate against Steel and Aluminum tariffs. Specifically the vulnerable markets are soybeans, beef abd grains including sorghum. Such a ban could be a boon for Australia and South America.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released preliminary estimates for February commodity prices showing the index rose 1.8 per cent (on a monthly average basis) in SDR terms, after increasing by 7.7 per cent in January (revised).

Google ads