The S&P Case-Shiller National Home Price Index, which measures home prices across the US, rose 0.4% m/m in March 2023, on a year-over-year basis, the index rose 0.7% in March, down from a 2.1% annual rate the prior month. The annual increase was the smallest since May 2012. Miami had the fastest annual home-price growth in the country, at 7.7%, followed by Tampa, at 4.8%. The weakest market was Seattle, where prices fell 12.4% on an annual basis. The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage was 6.57% in the week ended May 25, up from 5.1% a year earlier, according to Freddie Mac. The supply of homes for sale has remained low this spring, as higher rates have also dissuaded current homeowners from selling.
Composite Home Price Indices.
Prices are falling fastest in Western markets, such as Seattle, where prices fell a seasonally adjusted 0.9% in March from the prior month, and Phoenix, where prices declined 0.4%.
“Two months of increasing prices do not a definitive recovery make, but March’s results suggest that the decline in home prices that began in June 2022 may have come to an end,” said Craig Lazzara, managing director at S&P Dow Jones Indices. ”
S&P CoreLogic March 2023 Highlights
- S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index, which measures home prices across the nation, climbed 0.4% in March compared with February on a seasonally adjusted basis.
- On a year-over-year basis, the index rose 0.7% in March, down from a 2.1% annual rate the prior month. The annual increase was the smallest since May 2012.
- The 20-city index dropped 1.1%, after an annual gain of 0.4% in February. For both indexes, it was the first annual decline since May 2012.
- The Case-Shiller 10-city index fell 0.8% over the year ended in March, following a 0.5% increase in February.
The Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates making mortgage financing more expensive.
“The acceleration we observed nationally was also apparent at a more granular level. Before seasonal adjustment, prices rose in all 20 cities in March (versus in 12 in February), and in all 20 price gains accelerated between February and March. Seasonally adjusted data showed 15 cities with rising prices in March (versus 11 in February), with acceleration in 14 cities.
“One of the most interesting aspects of our report continues to lie in its stark regional differences. Miami’s 7.7% year-over-year gain made it the best-performing city for the eighth consecutive month. Tampa (+4.8%) continued in second place, narrowly ahead of bronze medalist Charlotte (+4.7%). The farther west we look, the weaker prices are, with Seattle (-12.4%) now leading San Francisco (-11.2%) at the bottom of the league table. It’s unsurprising that the Southeast (+5.4%) remains the country’s strongest region, while the West (-6.2%) remains the weakest.
Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director at S&P DJI
Location Changes
February’s best performers were all in the Southeast:
- Miami (7.7%),
- Tampa (4.8%),
- Charlotte (4.7%)
Prices are falling fastest in West Coast markets. It’s unsurprising that the Southeast (+5.4%) remains the country’s strongest region, while the West (-6.2%) remains the weakest.
At the other end of the scale, one of the most interesting aspects of March’s report is the continued weakness in home prices on the West Coast, as San Diego and Portland joined San Francisco and Seattle in negative year-over-year territory.
Weakest performers were in the West again.
- Seattle (-12.4%),
- San Francisco (-11.2%),
- San Diego (-4.1%)
- San Francisco and Seattle peaked in May 2022, and both have declined by more
than -10% since then.
FHFA House Price Index February 2023 Highlights
The FHFA House Price Index (M/M) rose 0.5% in February from a revised 0.1% in January (from 0.2%).
Source: S&P Global
From The TradersCommunity News Desk