Delving into markets, geopolitics and what could be ahead in 2025 it is noteworthy to acknowledge the unprecedented global impact of inflationism on elections and democracy in 2024. 73 countries held elections in 2024, meaning half of the world’s population were set to vote. What is clear main street had enough, and many incumbents were punished. Major economies that showed existing governments the door included India and Japan in Asia, the United States and France and Britain in Europe.
In a sign of how distant the incumbents are from their voters many turned to disruptive outsiders. Suprise people outside the elite or political class fire ring are tired of economic disruption and global instability. It is fair to label the world as a geopolitical tinderbox.
The incumbent in every one of the 12 developed western countries that held national elections in 2024 lost vote share at the polls, the first time this has ever happened in almost 120 years of modern democracy.
Inflation was a dominant issue in 2024’s elections. Inflation through kindling on an already burning fire where economic concerns prevailed in many countries before the post-pandemic wave of global price increases.
“The past two decades have seen financial crises, the Great Recession, the COVID-19 economic downturn, inflation and ongoing economic inequality, all of which may have shaped the mood in nations around the globe.” – Pew Research
“It was heralded as the year of democracy. With more than one and a half billion ballots cast in elections across 73 countries, 2024 offered a rare opportunity to take the social and political temperature of almost half of the world’s population. The results are now in, and they have delivered a damning verdict on holders of public office. The incumbent in every one of the 12 developed western countries that held national elections in 2024 lost vote share at the polls, the first time this has ever happened in almost 120 years of modern democracy. In Asia, even the hegemonic governments of India and Japan were not spared the ill wind. Incumbent or otherwise, centrists were frequently the losers as voters threw in their lot behind radical parties of either flank. The populist right in particular surged forward, fueled in significant part by a rightward shift among young men.” December 29 – Financial Times (John Burn-Murdoch)
Notable losses for incumbents around the world in 2024:
- United States: Democrats in the United States lost the presidency, with Donald Trump, the Republican former president, defeating Vice President Kamala Harris. Republicans also won majorities in both houses of Congress. It was the third straight U.S. presidential election in which the incumbent party lost.
- United Kingdom: Political power swung to the left. The Labour Party won an overwhelming parliamentary majority, bringing 14 years of Conservative Party rule to an end.
- Botswana: The most dramatic defeat for a longtime incumbent party where the Botswana Democratic Party lost power for the first time in nearly 60 years.
- South Korea: Opposition Democratic Party won a majority of seats in the National Assembly in what was seen as a check on President Yoon Suk Yeol of the People Power Party. In early December, President Yoon imposed martial law and accused Democratic Party leaders of “anti-state” activities. The National Assembly quickly reversed Yoon’s decision, voting unanimously to lift martial law.
- Ghana, Panama, Portugal and Uruguay: Opposition parties of various ideological bends won power in a diverse set of nations.
Incumbent parties that held onto power with significant setbacks in 2024.
- South Africa: The African National Congress failed to win a majority of National Assembly seats for the first time since the end of apartheid.
- Japan: The Liberal Democratic Party has governed the country for most of the post-World War II era and its coalition partner, Komeito lost their majority in the parliament in 2024.
- India: Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party won a third consecutive victory but were forced into a coalition government.
- France: President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to hold snap elections in the summer backfired. Macron’s centrist Ensemble alliance lost ground to both the left-wing New Popular Front and the right-wing National Rally.
Economic Inequality factored into Donald Trump’s Win
“Donald Trump’s November election victory has often been explained as a reflection of anger about post-pandemic price increases for everything from groceries to housing. But inflation was only part of the economic story. Trump won in the places that have seen the slowest growth since the pandemic… Kamala Harris won by a landslide the counties that are the biggest components of the US economy — places that have on average roared back from the pandemic recession. She took 83 of the 100 largest counties by real GDP… That split largely reflects the urban-rural economic divide in America that has also become a political one… Trump won 1,308 of the 1,463 counties that have a greater reliance on manufacturing than the US as a whole… Across the US, almost 30 million people live in the 650 counties with local economies that had not recovered to their pre-pandemic real GDP… Trump won 576 of them. On average, those slow-recovery counties that went for Trump had economies that were still 6.6% smaller at the end of 2023 than at the end of 2019…” January 3 – Bloomberg (Shawn Donnan, Nazmul Ahasan, and Alexandre Tanzi)
The U.S. is more ideologically divided than most
A 2022 cross-national Pew Research Center survey included a question exploring tradition and change. It asked respondents whether they believe their country will be better off in the future if it sticks to its traditions and ways of life, or if it is open to changes regarding its traditions and ways of life.
In 15 of the 16 nations where they measured ideology, there was a significant difference between the ideological right and left.
Their cross-national polling has consistently shown that the U.S. is more ideologically divided than most, with especially wide gaps on issues including abortion and climate change.
The gap was largest by far in the United States, where 91% of liberals say the country will be better off if it embraces change, compared with just 28% of conservatives.
A Move to The Right
Cas Mudde, a professor of international affairs at the University of Georgia summed up 2024 in Prospect magazine as ‘a great year for the far right, a terrible year for incumbents and a troublesome year for democracy around the world.’” December 30 – Associated Press (Jill Lawless)
A disconnect with voters and the political class has been developing unknown to the partisan element benefiting. With this shift we saw right-wing populists and other challengers to traditional parties grew in popularity. Several elections this year in Europe highlighted this trend: via Pew Research below:
- Right-wing populist parties, many of which campaigned on sharply anti-immigration platforms, gained ground in this year’s European parliamentary elections.
- Parties on the left and in the center worked together to keep Marine Le Pen’s right-wing populist National Rally out of power in France in this year’s parliamentary elections. But Le Pen’s party nonetheless significantly increased the number of seats it holds in the National Assembly. In early December, National Rally voted with New Popular Front, a coalition of left-leaning parties, to end the government of conservative Michel Barnier after just three months.
- In Austria, the far-right Freedom Party won 29% of the vote in September elections – a higher share than any other party and its best-ever result. It is unlikely, however, that any governing coalition will include the party.
- Three far-right parties had a strong showing in Romania’s Dec. 1 parliamentary elections. Also, right-wing candidate Calin Georgescu received the most votes in the first round of the country’s presidential elections. However, on Dec. 6, Romania’s Constitutional Court annulled the first-round results after evidence emerged of substantial Russian interference in the election.
- Portugal joined the list of European nations with a significant right-wing party following Chega’s success in the March elections. The party won 50 out of 230 parliamentary seats, up from just 12 in 2022 and one in 2019.
- Reform UK won the third-highest share of the vote in the United Kingdom’s general election, with 14%. And its leader, Nigel Farage, finally won a seat in Parliament in his eighth attempt.
- Alternative for Germany became the first far-right political party to win a state election in Germany since World War II.
In some cases, right-wing parties have won the most votes, as in the Netherlands in 2023 and Italy in 2022. Sometimes they have lost power, as in Poland’s late 2023 elections. But they are now consistently competitive in ways they were not until relatively recently.
Populism has had Success on The Left Also.
One example is Mexico’s Morena party, which has only been in existence for about a decade but now dominates the nation’s politics. Building on the popularity of outgoing President Andrés Manuel López Obrador and the country’s relatively positive economic mood, Morena won outright majorities in both chambers of the Congress. And Morena’s Claudia Sheinbaum is now Mexico’s first female president.
Political Violence and Manipulation of Elections
It wasn’t all smooth sailing, however. “Political violence and manipulation of elections, ongoing armed conflicts, and deepening repression in 2024 resulted in the 19th consecutive year of decline in global freedom, according to a new report released by Freedom House. The countries that recorded deterioration represented more than 40 percent of the global population.”
- Mass protests in Mozambique and Georgia
- An election annulled in Romania on Dec. 6, Romania’s Constitutional Court annulled the first-round results after evidence emerged of substantial Russian interference in the election.
“The report, Freedom in the World 2025: The Uphill Battle to Safeguard Rights, found that of the 66 countries and territories that hosted national elections in 2024, some 40 percent featured election-related violence. Candidates were attacked in at least 20 countries, while polling places were attacked in at least 14. Many elections were contests in name only, as authoritarian incumbents from Azerbaijan to Rwanda ensured that their main opponents were disqualified or arrested to prevent them from participating. Today, only 20 percent of the world’s people live in countries rated Free, while 40 percent live in countries rated Not Free.”
Key Freedom in the World 2025 findings include the following:
- Global freedom declined for the 19th consecutive year in 2024. Sixty countries experienced deterioration in their political rights and civil liberties, and only 34 secured improvements.
- During an unprecedented year of elections, many contests were marred by violence and authoritarian efforts to restrict voters’ choices. In over 40 percent of the countries and territories that held national elections in 2024, including Free countries such as France, Japan, South Africa, South Korea, and the United States, candidates were targeted with assassination attempts or assaults, polling places were attacked, or postelection protests were suppressed with disproportionate force. Elections in authoritarian countries like Azerbaijan, Russia, Rwanda, and Tunisia were manipulated to prevent genuine opposition candidates from participating.
- Ongoing armed conflicts made the world less safe and less free. Civil wars and interstate conflict in Sudan, Myanmar, and Ukraine—as well as violence perpetrated by armed militias, mercenaries, and criminal organizations across Latin America and Africa—undermined security and prevented the exercise of fundamental rights. People in 20 percent of the world’s countries and territories now live without even the most basic protections from the illegitimate use of force. In many places, armed conflict fuels the spread of illicit trading in drugs and arms and provides safe havens for criminal organizations.
- Positive developments demonstrated the potential for democratic breakthroughs. Despite the overall decline in global freedom, bright spots emerged around the world as a result of competitive elections or following the collapse of long-standing authoritarian regimes. For example, the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s brutal regime in Syria after 13 years of civil war prompted immediate improvements in physical security, freedom of movement, and freedom of assembly in formerly regime-held areas. New governments in such countries will now face the difficult task of building and strengthening democratic institutions while also protecting individual rights.
- Largest increases and best overall scores: On Freedom in the World’s 100-point scale for political rights and civil liberties, Bangladesh (+5), Bhutan (+5), Sri Lanka (+4), and Syria (+4) recorded the largest gains for 2024. The best overall country scores were those of Finland (100), Sweden (99), New Zealand (99), Norway (99), Canada (97), Denmark (97), San Marino (97), the Netherlands (97), Ireland (97), and Luxembourg (97).
- Largest declines and worst overall scores: Kuwait (−7), Tunisia (−7), El Salvador (−6), and Haiti (−6) were the countries with the year’s largest score declines. The countries with the worst overall scores were Turkmenistan (1), South Sudan (1), Sudan (2), Eritrea (3), North Korea (3), Central African Republic (5), Tajikistan (5), Equatorial Guinea (5), Syria (5), Afghanistan (6), Azerbaijan (7), Belarus (7), and Myanmar (7).
- Status changes: Two countries, Bhutan and Senegal, improved from Partly Free to Free status, while Jordan crossed the threshold from Not Free to Partly Free. Four countries declined from Partly Free to Not Free: Kuwait, Niger, Tanzania, and Thailand.
Sources: NEW REPORT: Amid Unprecedented Wave of Elections, Political Violence and Armed Conflict Fueled 19th Consecutive Year of Decline in Global Freedom | Freedom House, Global Elections in 2024: What We Learned in a Year of Political Disruption | Pew Research Center
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