Germany SPD and CDU Battle To Become Largest Party in Bundestag After Angela Merkel Era

Centre-left SPD and their candidate, Olaf Scholz, secured a narrow win in the German election which saw Angela Merkel’s centre-right CDU party and their candidate, Armin Laschet, plunge to a historic low. Parties will embark on “exploratory talks” to form a government, with a three-way coalition considered the most likely.

Centre-left SPD and their candidate, Olaf Scholz, secured a narrow win in the German election which saw Angela Merkel’s centre-right CDU party and their candidate, Armin Laschet, plunge to a historic low. Parties will embark on “exploratory talks” to form a government, with a three-way coalition considered the most likely.

Germany Finance

A three-way coalition is considered the most likely outcome at this point. Expect long coalition talks. Notte that the strongest party does not have an automatic right to lead the next government. All parties can have exploratory talks in whichever combination they want until they have found a constellation which would have a parliamentarian majority. 

Two national elections in the past have seen the largest party not lead the government coalition. Both Scholz and Laschet have insisted they will form the government, with Laschet pointing out that, “It hasn’t always been the case that the party in first place provides the chancellor.”

The pro-business FDP party, which like the Greens could play a kingmaker role, has said it has a preference for a coalition with the conservatives and the Greens, but a three-way alliance with the SPD and Greens remains on the table too.

With the current results, three coalitions would be possible:

  • Green-yellow-red “traffic light” coalition,SPD, Greens and FDP coalition
  • “Jamaican” coalition of the CDU/CSU, Greens and FDP coalition
  • Revival of the grand coalition but then under the leadership of the SPD.

Germany 2021 Possible Coalitions

The option of a left wing coalition of SPD, Greens and Left Party is no longer possible.

Not the final result but well into counting:

  • The centre-left SPD and their chancellor candidate, Olaf Scholz, have a narrow lead with the latest projections showing them with 25.9% of the vote.
  • Angela Merkel’s centre-right CDU party and their candidate, Armin Laschet, have sunk to a historic low in a federal election, with a projected 24.1 %.
  • The Greens, led by Annalena Baerbock, have secured their best result in a national poll, with early results putting it at 14.6% – in third place and ahead of the liberal FDP.
  • The far-right AfD is set to enter parliament for the second time, on 10.5%.

The far-right AfD has officially become the biggest party in Thüringen, in former East Germany, for the first time with 24% after all votes were counted. The SPD came in second on 23.4% and the CDU third on 16.9%:

German Election 2021 Vote Share

Older voters have stuck with the centre-left SPD (red) and centre-right CDU (black), while younger voters have tended to vote in greater numbers for the Greens and the more socially liberal, low-tax loving FDP (yellow). Interestingly it also shows those in their middle years are more likely to vote for the far-right AfD (blue) than the over 70s and the 18 to 24-year-olds.

Image

 via David Noël ?? @David

Source: Guardian

From The TradersCommunity News Desk

2 thoughts on “Germany SPD and CDU Battle To Become Largest Party in Bundestag After Angela Merkel Era”

  1. TradersCom says:

    Endlich! since the Sept. 26 election. #Germany will have a center-left government led by Olaf
    Scholz , a Social Democrat, who will replace longtime Chancellor Angela Merkel.

    For the first time in 16 years, Germany will have a center-left government and a new chancellor, Olaf Scholz, a Social Democrat, whose job will be to fill the shoes of Angela Merkel, the woman who made Germany indispensable in Europe and the world.

    Three parties have been haggling under strict secrecy to hammer out a new government since the Sept. 26 election. After much anticipation, they are expected to announce their governing deal for the next four years at 3 p.m. Berlin time.

    Mr. Scholz is expected to be sworn in as chancellor early next month. He will immediately face a pressing roster of crises, including a pandemic that is spiraling quickly upward and border conflicts in Belarus and Ukraine.

    It is the end of an era for Germany and for Europe. For over a decade, Ms. Merkel was not just chancellor of Germany but effectively the leader of Europe. She steered her country and the continent through successive crises and in the process helped Germany become Europe’s leading power for the first time in modern history.

    Mr. Scholz’s center-left party, which narrowly won the September election, governed with Ms. Merkel’s conservative Christian Democrats for three of her four terms. Mr. Scholz himself was her finance minister for the last four years.

    He will now lead an unusual three-way coalition with the progressive Greens and the smaller, pro-business Free Democrats.

    “It’s typical for Germany: It’s change and continuity in one,” said Cem Özdemir, a prominent lawmaker for the Greens and one of 300 negotiators of the new coalition treaty.

    There is clearly tension built into the new government, with important yet opposing ministries expected to be given to coalition partners who sit on opposite ends of the political spectrum. That tension is likely to remain a theme of the government and to test Mr. Scholz’s ability to balance competing agendas.

    In one key concession, according to a person close to the coalition talks, the finance ministry will go to the leader of the Free Democrats, Christian Lindner, a fiscal conservative who has ruled out tax increases.
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    Mr. Lindner could serve as a brake on the new government’s boldest ambitions for change, especially those coming from the Greens, who had campaigned on revolutionizing the economy to meet the challenges of a warming planet.

    The Greens did not walk away empty-handed. The party’s co-leaders, Annalena Baerbock and Robert Habeck, secured two powerful posts.

    Mr. Habeck will run a new superministry combining the economy and climate, the person said, and Ms. Baerbock, who ran as the Greens’ candidate for chancellor, will be Germany’s first female foreign minister.

    On issues ranging from Europe to trade and foreign policy, most analysts expect the new government to broadly stay the course set by its predecessor. But a number of urgent crises — and Mr. Scholz’s two more hawkish coalition partners — might force the new chancellor to rethink some past policies.

    Mr. Scholz’s Germany could turn out to be somewhat more willing to throw its weight behind European integration and to close ranks with the United States in putting pressure on China and Russia.

    But the buzzword was continuity.

    “The new government will essentially be one of continuity, not change,” said Holger Schmieding, the chief economist of Berenberg Bank. “All those who were hoping that this would be the start of something completely different will be disappointed.”

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/24/world/europe/germany-new-government.html

  2. TradersCom says:

    After 16 years at the helm Angela Merkel steps down as chancellor of Germany as Olaf Scholz formally replaces her today

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