- This topic has 15 replies, 7 voices, and was last updated 5 years, 8 months ago by CautiousInvestor.
- 23 Jul '17 at 4:30 pm #10506
[article]67[/article]23 Jul '17 at 10:03 pm #10510ThePitBossParticipant
The line Yellen and other Fed officials have been pushing is the drop in inflation was transitory and the result of phone bills, Amazon buying wholefoods, prescription drugs and energy. In other words all the things main street is surviving on and enjoying on, Yellen and the stockmarket bulls don’t want this. Be careful of unintelligent consequences Janet and the stockmarket bulls.
You hit the difference right on the head and why main street is so upset and the great partisan divide marches on24 Jul '17 at 12:44 am #10513CautiousInvestorKeymaster
^^^ +1s …. YES and it can all be summed up with MASSIVE DEBT at 0% … it’s as simple as that 🙂24 Jul '17 at 1:30 am #10514
[quote=”CautiousInvestor” post=235]^^^ +1s …. YES and it can all be summed up with MASSIVE DEBT at 0% … it’s as simple as that 🙂
QE Infinity and beyond24 Jul '17 at 1:32 am #10515
Here is Goldman Sachs economics client note :
– ]We do not expect any policy changes at the July FOMC meeting and expect only limited changes to the post-meeting statement.
– The statement is likely to upgrade the description of job growth, but might also recognize that inflation has declined further.
– We think the statement is also likely to acknowledge that the balance sheet announcement is now closer at hand.[/li]
– Looking ahead, we continue to expect the FOMC to announce the start of balance sheet normalization in September.
– We see a 5% probability that the next rate hike will come in September, a 5% probability that it will come in November, and a 50% probability that it will come in December, for a 60% cumulative probability of at least three hikes this year.24 Jul '17 at 5:28 pm #10520
How quick they went from all rises this year to one to none. Stock market close enough to record highs – shows at such low rates the impact is ineffective at this point.24 Jul '17 at 7:51 pm #10526CautiousInvestorKeymaster
^^^ +1s … did y’all notice the TALLER the FED CHIEF … the HIGHER the bank borrowing rates 😉 8)
24 Jul '17 at 9:15 pm #10529
Ha ha great find – no wonder they are seen eager to raise rates hard to find a banker under 5 foot .25 Jul '17 at 9:58 pm #10572
Bank of America Merrill Lynch Outlook on FOMC
“The FOMC is likely to tweak the statement to strengthen the commitment to balance sheet normalization but express greater concern about low inflation. Specifically, we expect the FOMC to note the Committee expects to begin implementing a balance sheet normalization program “soon”. This would send a message that the FOMC is on track to announce the start of normalization at the September meeting. We also expect the FOMC to emphasize the recent subdued inflation.
The outcome of these potential language changes would signal the FOMC is more cautious regarding the path of future rate hikes, but still committed to shrinking the balance sheet, in our view,”26 Jul '17 at 10:00 am #10584Assistanc3Participant
$10 billion a month taper from $4.476 Trillion
that’s what everyone is waiting on26 Jul '17 at 10:01 pm #10605
FOMC decision July 26, 2017:
Fed leaves rates unchanged at 1.00%-1.25%, as expected, In June Fed hiked to 1.00%-1.25%
Fed to start balance sheet unwind ‘relatively soon’
Repeats that inflation seen rising to 2%26 Jul '17 at 10:05 pm #10606
Says will reinvest holdings ‘for the time being’
Repeats that overall inflation measures ex food and energy have declined26 Jul '17 at 10:05 pm #10607
Full text of the July FOMC statement
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising moderately so far this year. Job gains have been solid, on average, since the beginning of the year, and the unemployment rate has declined. Household spending and business fixed investment have continued to expand. On a 12-month basis, overall inflation and the measure excluding food and energy prices have declined and are running below 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance.
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee continues to expect that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, and labor market conditions will strengthen somewhat further. Inflation on a 12-month basis is expected to remain somewhat below 2 percent in the near term but to stabilize around the Committee’s 2 percent objective over the medium term. Near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced, but the Committee is monitoring inflation developments closely.
In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1 to 1-1/4 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting some further strengthening in labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation.
In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected inflation developments relative to its symmetric inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.
For the time being, the Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. The Committee expects to begin implementing its balance sheet normalization program relatively soon, provided that the economy evolves broadly as anticipated; this program is described in the June 2017 Addendum to the Committee’s Policy Normalization Principles and Plans.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Charles L. Evans; Stanley Fischer; Patrick Harker; Robert S. Kaplan; Neel Kashkari; and Jerome H. Powell.26 Jul '17 at 10:14 pm #10608KnovaWaveParticipant
Dont trade DX but a good chart after FOMC:
$DX_F #FOMC sent the #USD diving @patrickrooney26 Jul '17 at 10:59 pm #10611
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