What to Look For in NetFlix $NFLX Earnings After Price Hikes

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    Netflix most popular Shows for the month of September

    Note don’t include the non-Netflix Original shows as part of the study. This is simply the most-watched Netflix Originals for the month of September.

    Top 5

    • Narcos
      Stranger Things
      Orange is the New Black
      Marvel’s The Defenders

    “For the last several years we’ve had flat operating margins due to established markets funding international expansion with every spare dollar we had,” CEO Reed Hastings wrote in his quarterly letter to shareholders. “Because of that, the major indicators of our progress were member and revenue growth and U.S. contribution margins. Starting this year, we can be primarily measured by revenue growth and [global] operating margins as our primary metrics.”

    One of the things I don’t look at is…
    “most-watched Netflix Originals for the month of”

    The reason why is simple, shows like House of Cards, the entire Season 5 (2017) released all of at in May allowed the 70% of NetFlix binge watchers to watch the entire show. Those that followed the show basically was forced into watching it else missing out on the water cooler talk or being exposed to spoilers on social media.[hr]

    Another thing, which should be discussed when we talk about NetFlix and likely be talked about in the conference call is the quality of content to file size. NetFlix has been working on a new encoding technology (which might be the savior of the internet) to reduce file sizes – which allows them to be a service to those with lower speed internet.[hr]

    something else to look for, the ever evolving stance Netflix has with Net Neutrality


    Would like to know more about net neutrality and file size affects – the subs will be the key no doubt for today.


    $NFLX Hit a record high on Monday, rose nearly 2 percent to $206.50 after the they beat the subs expectations. They were already up about 64 percent this year.


    Would like to know more about net neutrality and file size affects – the subs will be the key no doubt for today.


    $NFLX Netflix Q3 17 Earnings Results:
    -Revenue: $2.99B (Estimate $2.97B)
    -Q3 Intl Net Streaming Adds At 4.45M

    $NFLX adds 4.45M international subscribers; 850K domestic subscribers in 3Q


    NetFlix Q3 Highlights
    Total streamings adds were 5.30M for the quarter vs. 4.50M consensus.
    850K domestic streaming additions vs. 774K consensus
    International streaming additions came in at 4.45M vs. 3.72M consensus

    Q3 U.S. streaming contribution margin fell 140 bps Q/Q to 35.8% as some content deals closed earlier than anticipated. The international contribution margin rate was 4.7%. Q1 operating margin was 7.0% vs. 4.6% a year ago.

    Netflix on cash: “Free cash flow in Q3 totaled -$465 million vs. -$506 million last year and -$608 million in Q2’17. There is no change to our expectation for FCF of -$2.0 to -$2.5 billion for the full year 2017.”

    Looking ahead, Netflix expects Q4 domestic streaming adds of 1.25M vs. 1.63M consensus and international streaming additions of 5.05M vs. 4.66M consensus.

    Q3​ ​Results​ ​and​ ​Q4​ ​Forecast
    Global streaming revenue in Q3 rose 33% year over year, driven by a 24% increase in average paid
    memberships and 7% growth in ASP. Operating income nearly doubled year-over-year to $209 million
    with our Q3 global operating margin of 7.0% putting us right on track to achieve our full year target of
    7%. EPS of $0.29 included a pre-tax $51 million non-cash loss from F/X remeasurement on our Euro
    bond (or $39 million after tax based on a 24% tax rate). Higher than expected excess tax benefit from
    stock based compensation benefited our tax rate by $5 million vs. our forecast. As a reminder, the
    quarterly guidance we provide is our actual internal forecast at the time we report.
    We added a Q3-record 5.3 million memberships globally (up 49% year-over-year) as we continued to
    benefit from strong appetite for our original series and films, as well as the adoption of internet
    entertainment across the world. Relative to our guidance of 4.4 million net adds, we under-forecasted
    both US and international acquisition. Year to date net adds of 15.5 million are up 29% versus last year.
    Domestic contribution margin in Q3 of 35.8% vs. 36.4% last year was below our forecast of 37.1% due
    primarily to the earlier-than-anticipated close of certain content deals. The foreign currency impact in
    the quarter was +$13 million and Q3 international revenue grew 54% year over year, excluding
    currency. F/X-neutral ASP increased 7.4% year over year. International contribution profit margin of
    4.7% exceeded our 2.3% guidance, also due to the timing of content deals.

    For Q4, we forecast global net adds of 6.30m (1.25m in the US and 5.05m internationally) vs. 7.05m in
    the year ago quarter (which was our all-time high for quarterly net adds). We recently announced price
    adjustments in many markets to our HD and 4K video plans while keeping our SD plan mostly unchanged
    (still $7.99 in the US, for instance). Existing members will be notified and their prices will be adjusted on
    a rolling basis over the next few months. Increased revenue over time will help us grow our content
    offering and continue our global operating margin growth.
    We’ve been focused on growing global operating margin as our primary profitability metric since hitting
    our 2020 US contribution margin goal of 40% this past Q1. This allows us to avoid near term
    optimization for specific domestic or international contribution margin targets which could impede our
    long term growth. For instance, we anticipate our Q4’17 US contribution margin will be 34.4% (a decline
    both year-on-year and sequentially) as we boost our marketing investment against a growing content
    slate. We spend disproportionately in the US to generate media and influencer awareness for our
    programming which we believe, in turn, is an effective way to facilitate word of mouth globally. In our
    international segment, we are on track to generate positive contribution profit for the full year. As we
    move into 2018, we aim to achieve steady improvement in international profitability and a growing
    operating margin as our success in many large markets helps fund investments throughout Asia and the
    rest of the world.

    Source: Netflix Q3 shareholder letter

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