What to Expect From US Jobs, Earnings and Unemployment After Tax Reform

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    US December core PCE mm 0.2% vs 0.2% exp
    yy core 1.5% vs 1.5% exp
    PCE deflator mm 0.1% vs 0.1% exp vs prev 0.2%
    PCE deflator yy 1.7% vs est 1.7% vs prev 1.8%

    personal income 0.4% vs 0.3% exp/prev
    spending 0.4% vs 0.4% exp vs 0.8% prev revised up from 0.6%
    Real Personal Spending 0.3% vs est 0.4% vs prev 0.5%


    Big week – income higher which is a positive – inflation still a MEH though


    US November Case-Shiller 20-city house price index

    +6.41% vs +6.30% y/y expected, Prior +6.38% (revised to +6.32%)
    Prices up 0.75% m/m vs +0.6% expected (+0.7% prior)
    National price index up 6.21% y/y


    US January consumer confidence from The Conference Board

    125.4 vs 123.0 expected. prior was 122.1 (revised to 123.1)
    Present situation 155.3 vs 156.5 prior
    Expectations 105.5 vs 100.8
    Jobs hard-to-get at 16.4 vs 16.0 prior
    1-year inflation expectation 4.6% vs 4.8% prior


    US January ADP employment 234K vs 185K expected
    Prior 250K Prior revised to 242K
    Goods producing +22K
    Service producing +212K


    US Q4 employment cost index

    0.6% vs 0.6% exp 0.7% prev

    Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.6 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending in December 2017, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Wages and salaries (which make up about 70 percent of compensation costs) increased 0.5 percent, and benefits (which make up the remaining 30 percent of compensation) increased 0.5 percent.



    US initial jobless claims w-e 27 Jan 230k vs 235k exp

    231k prev revised down from 233k
    Continuing claims w-e 20 Jan 1953 k vs 1929k exp vs 1940k prev revised up from 1937k


    [b]ISM manufacturing index for January 2018 59.1 vs 58.6 expected Prior was 59.1
    [/b]Prices paid 72.7 vs 68.8 expected (highest since 2011) Prior prices paid 68.3 – inflation?
    New orders 65.4 vs 67.4 prior
    Employment 54.2 vs 58.1 prior (lowest since May)

    The biggest net percentage of U.S. manufacturers are reporting increases in new export orders since April 2011.


    US construction spending for December 0.7% vs. 0.4% expected Prior month + 0.6% (rev down from 0.8%)

    Private outlays hit record high. Up 0.8%. to $962.2B
    Outlays on private residential projects gained 0.5% to the highest level since March 2007.
    Spending on nonresidential structures jumped 1.1% after climbing 0.3% in November
    Public spending +0.3%. November increase was 0.1%

    Spending on federal government construction projects jumped 10.9%, the largest increase since October 2014
    State and local government construction outlays fell -0.6%
    Total spending 1.253 trillion

    Year on year construction spending advanced 2.6%
    For the year of 2017 total, construction spending rose 3.8%. This was the smallest since 2011. It rose 6.5% 2016


    [b]January non-farm payrolls 200K vs 180K expected

    Prior was 148K (revised to 160K)
    Unemployment rate 4.1% vs 4.1% exp
    Participation rate 62.7% vs 62.7% prior
    Underemployment rate 8.2% vs 8.1% exp
    Private payrolls 196K vs 181K exp
    Prior private payrolls revised to 166K from 146K

    Benchmark revisions added an extra 118K jobs in 2017


    Average hourly earnings 2.9% y/y vs 2.6% exp
    Average hourly earnings +0.3% m/m vs +0.2% m/m exp
    Prior avg hourly earnings revised to 2.7% from 2.5%
    Prior avg hourly earnings revised to +0.4% vs +0.3%
    Hours worked 34.3 compared to 34.5 expected


    Good job numbers continuing

    US initial jobless claims 221K vs 232K expected, prior 230K
    Continuing claims 1932K vs 1940K, last week was revised to 1956K from 1953K.
    The four-week average fell to 224.5k versus 234.5K

    Helmholtz Watson

    US initial jobless claims for the week ending February 10

    222K vs. 230K expected, prior week was revised down to 229K versus 230K.
    Four-week jobless claims moving average fell to 226K from 228.25K
    Continuing claims come in at 1875K vs. 1935K expected, prior week was revised to 1948K from 1942K

    The largest increases in initial claims were in Michigan (+565), Tennessee (+291), Kansas (+204), Minnesota (+190), and New Jersey (+186),
    The largest decreases were in California (-2,533), Pennsylvania (-1,420), Puerto Rico (-1,366), New York (-1,043), and South Carolina (-569).

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