What The Fed Is Looking For In The Jobs Report

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    Over the past month we have seen many…



    Beige Book March 7

    Persistent labor market. Price increases in all districts
    Economy expanded at modest to moderate pace in January February
    Employment grew up moderate pace, worker demand brisk
    A few districts saw modest wage increases after tax cuts
    wage growth picked up to moderate pace in many districts
    Contacts across US saw persistent labor market tightness

    Prices increased in all districts
    4 districts all marked increase in steel prices
    Consumer spending mixed, auto sales fell or were flat
    Production increases broad-based across manufacturing


    US initial jobless claims rose by 21k in current week to 231K versus 220K estimate.

    Cntinuing claims 1870K va 1919K last week, continuing claims revised to 1934K from 1931K reported last week
    4-week moving average was 222.5K, an increase of 2K from the previous week’s unrevised average of 220.5K.

    Claims taking procedures in Puerto Rico and in the Virgin Islands have still not returned to normal

    The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending February 24 were in Massachusetts (+3,809), Rhode Island (+933), Oregon (+706), Kansas (+424), and Vermont (+330),
    The largest decreases were in California (-9,158), Pennsylvania (-1,971), New Jersey (-1,474), New York (-1,384), and Texas (-1,347).


    February non-farm payrolls 313K vs 205K expected, Prior 200K

    Unemployment rate vs +4.0% expected

    Average hourly earnings 2.6% y/y vs 2.8% exp
    Average hourly earnings 0.1% m/m vs +0.2% m/m exp
    Prior avg hourly earnings revised to 2.8% from 2.9%
    Prior avg hourly earnings unrevised at 0.3%
    Hours worked 34.5 compared to 34.4 expected
    Prior hours worked revised to 34.4 vs 34.3 prior


    Thank you & +313,000 😆 FUTURES ARE SOARING 😆


    Fed’s Evans on CNBC

    Wage growth was a little on the weak side
    I’m looking forward to stronger wage growth in the future
    I think we’re on a good path

    Super Harley

    Big Day With Momentum Up All Day…

    The S&P 500 closed up 1.7% at 2,786.41.
    The DJIA closed up 1.8% at 25,334.84.
    The Nasdaq closed up 1.8% at 7,560.81.

    The S&P 500 sectors were ALL positive. Best performing sectors were financials up 2.3%, industrials 2.1%, and energy up 1.9%. The laggard was utilities up 0.1%.

    Helmholtz Watson

    Where Fed officials might be more concerned is the possible downside risk to longer-term growth from tariffs, especially in retaliation. As a tariff acts like an adverse shock to productivity with declining profits and investment. This in turn could fore a lower pace of potential growth.

    That would have implications for the amount of air in the economy and the odds that the real equilibrium interest rate (r*) would rise over time. The Atlanta Fed President Bostic spoke of these risks in a speech last week, while both Dallas Fed President Kaplan and Fed Governor Brainard both broached it but said it was too soon to tell. Brainard noted that protectionism represented more a source of uncertainty than an explicit downside risk to her current outlook.


    I’m thinking the $4 trillion in Fed printing causing inflation is more worrisome than tariffs

    also, when the USD reaches is real value, it will slowdown the economy more than tariffs

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