US Q2 GDP 2.1% vs +1.8% Expected on Strong Consumption

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  • #21392
    Helmholtz Watson
    Participant

    Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased 2.1% in…

    [article]1634[/article]

    #21420
    TradersCom
    Keymaster

    NY Fed Nowcast model 3Q GDP at 2.21% v 1.88% last

    (First After Todays Q2 Prelim)

    The estimate for the 3Q from the NY Fed Nowcast model is projecting growth at 2.21%. That is up from last week’s 1.88% estimate
    News from this week’s data releases increased the nowcast for 2019:Q3 by 0.3 percentage point.
    Positive surprises from manufacturing data drove most of the increase

    Today’s advance estimate from the Commerce Department of real GDP growth for 2019:Q2 was 2.1%.
    The latest New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2019:Q2 was 1.5%.

    #21485
    TradersCom
    Keymaster

    Aug 02, 2019: New York Fed Staff Nowcast

    The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 1.6% for 2019:Q3.

    News from this week’s data releases decreased the nowcast for 2019:Q3 by 0.6 percentage point.
    Negative surprises from ISM manufacturing data and lower than expected trade data drove most of the decrease.

    .

    #21486
    TradersCom
    Keymaster

    GDPNow

    Latest forecast: 1.9 percent — August 2, 2019

    The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2019 is 1.9 percent August 2, down from 2.2 percent on August 1. After this morning’s economic releases, the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth, third-quarter real private fixed investment growth, and third-quarter real government expenditures growth decreased from 3.0 percent, 4.0 percent, and 2.4 percent, respectively, to 2.8 percent, 3.4 percent, and 2.2 percent, respectively.

    The next GDPNow update is Thursday, August 8. Please see the “Release Dates” tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

    #21548
    TradersCom
    Keymaster

    Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate remains unchanged at 1.9%

    The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2019 is 1.9 percent on August 8, unchanged from August 2. Slight declines in the nowcasts of the contributions of consumer spending and nonresidential equipment investment to third-quarter real GDP growth following last Friday’s light vehicle sales release from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis were offset by an increase in the contribution of inventory investment to third-quarter real GDP growth after that same release and this morning’s wholesale trade report from the U.S. Census Bureau.

    The next GDPNow update is Thursday, August 15. Please see the “Release Dates” tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

    #21755
    Helmholtz Watson
    Participant

    US Q2 GDP second reading +2.0% v +2.0% expected, Initial reading +2.1%


    :
    Q1 3.1%
    Q4 1.1%
    GDP 2.3% y/y

    Personal consumption 4.7% vs 4.3% expected
    Initial personal consumption +4.3%
    Consumer spending on durables +13.0% vs +12.9% initially
    Business investment -0.6% vs -0.6% initially (first contraction since 2016)
    Home investment -2.9% vs -1.5% initilly
    Exports -5.8% vs -5.2% initially
    Imports +0.1% vs +0.1% initially
    Corporate profits +5.1%

    Inflation:

    GDP price index 2.4% vs 2.4% initially
    Prior GDP price index 1.1%
    Core PCE 1.7% vs 1.8% initially
    Prior core PCE 1.1%
    GDP deflator 2.5% vs +2.5% initially

    Personal consumption added 3.1 percentage points to GDP while gross private investment cut 1.11 points and trade was a 0.72 pp drag.

    Government consumption boosted GDP by 0.77 pp but the bulk of it Federal. Inventories lowered GDP by 0.91 pp.

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