US March Unemployment Surges as the Economic Shutdown Hits Hard

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    The US Labor Department reported the largest one-month…



    Unemployment caused by the COVID-19 shutdown impacted women, the young, and the less educated the hardest.

    The jobless rate for women in March increased close to 1 percent, while that for men increased around 0.7 percent.

    As would be expected, the job cuts hit the hospitality and leisure industry hard, with 65 percent of all job losses in that industry. The restaurant and bar sector bore the brunt of the cuts, with 417,000 jobs lost. Perhaps less expected, the healthcare and education sectors were also hard hit.

    There were 29,000 job cuts at dentist and physician offices and 19,000 cuts at daycare centers

    . By contrast, the federal government saw a net increase in jobs with the addition of 17,000 temporary census workers.


    US February JOLTS job openings 6882K vs 6500K expected Prior 6963

    February data prior to the lock-downs but does give a reminder of where we were

    Helmholtz Watson

    [color=red][size=5][b]US initial jobless claims 6606K vs 7400k
    Prior was revised higher by 219K to 6867K vs 6648K[/b][/size][/color]

    Initial jobless claims 6606K vs 7400K estimate
    4 week moving average 4265.5 vs 2666.75
    Continuing claims 7455K vs 8236K estimate. The prior week was revised to 6867K vs 6648K estimate – revised up 219,000
    4 week moving average moved to 3500K vs 2061K last week

    The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending March 28
    n California (+871,992), New York (+286,596), Michigan (+176,329), Florida (+154,171), Georgia (+121,680), Texas (+120,759), and New Jersey (+90,438),

    Largest decreases were in Nevada (-20,356), Rhode Island (-8,047), and Minnesota (-6,678).

    Another higher than expected rise in initial jobless claims. With the prior wee(remember when it was the actual initial jobless claims number?).


    Unseen devastation in jobs Could see Unemployment hit 20% Next Month
    Chart via Antonio Pérez Algás @apanalis



    US initial jobless claims 5245K vs 5500K estimate, Prior revised up 9K to 6615K

    4- week average for initial jobless claims 5508.5 K vs 4267.75K

    Continuing claims 11976K vs 13260K estimate. Record level for continuing claims
    4-week average for continuing jobless claims 6066.25K versus 3497.75K

    The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending April 4 were in

    Georgia (+256,312), Michigan (+84,219), Arizona (+43,488), Texas (+38,982), and Virginia (+34,872),

    The largest decreases were in

    California (-139,511), Pennsylvania (-127,037), Florida (-58,599), Ohio (-48,097), and Massachusetts (-41,776).

    A total of 22 million workers have now applied for jobless claims over the last 4 weeks.

    Continuing claims rose by the highest level ever. (Continuing claims lag the initial claims by one week (initial claims was for April 10 while the continuing claims is for April 3). As a result we can expect another record next week.


    Dallas Fed’s Kaplan on unemployment and recovery

    Speaking on Bloomberg TV

    sees peak unemployment in mid to high teens
    jobless rate may be 8%, 9% or 10% by end of year

    may take until 2021 4 consumer to get footing
    ubiquity of testing is critical for consumer confidence

    US growth to be above potential in 2021
    economy will grow faster than potential during recovery, but crisis may reduce potential growth over longer term

    you’ll see a number of failures in oil industry
    steps to restrain oil production could be appropriate
    excess oil supply to take several months to work off
    Fed should be open-minded about sectors needing aid

    Helmholtz Watson

    US weekly initial jobless claims 4427K vs 4500K expected for the week ending April 18
    Prior 5245K

    Continuing claims 15976K vs 16738K expected Prior continuing claims 11976K

    Helmholtz Watson

    US Job Losses From COVID-19 Near 30 million

    Initial jobless claims 3839K v 3700K estimate
    Prior month revised up 15,000 K to 4442K versus 4427K previously reported
    Four-week average 5790.25k from 5786.50k

    Continuing claims 17992K versus 19476K estimate.
    Four-week average 13292.5 K versus 9559.25K

    The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending April 18 were in Florida (+326,251), Connecticut (+68,758), West Virginia (+31,811), Louisiana (+12,270), and Texas (+6,504),

    The largest decreases were in New York (-189,517), California (-127,112), Michigan (-85,500), Georgia (-72,578), and Washington (-60,980).

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