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Comments from the Chicago Fed President on CNBC
Friday’s jobs numbers were ‘definitely surprising’
Believes the disappointing jobs number will be a ‘one month thing’ due to restarting economy
I think workers are looking for jobs that will be good for 5 years, not 3 months
We will have to pay attention to wages and whether that will lead to sustainable inflation over years, I don’t think it will
There isn’t enough supply for a lot of goods
Once all the bottlenecks are worked out, I think it will level out
Beyond temporary factors, inflation expectations will be very important, we’ll be watching that
Inflation rates at 2.5% don’t bother me as long as it’s consistent with averaging 2% over time
We’re going to have to see more employment numbers and we’re going to need to see inflation to start a taper talk. When data is stronger, we’ll be talking about itFeds Kaplan speaks on Bloomberg TV
Said that the disappointing payroll report from Friday May reflect supply issues
Kaplan says that enhanced jobs benefits and lack of child care impacted job gains
Demand from business to hire is greater than the numbers reflected by the April jobs report
Still expect job growth to be strong in 2021
if you got strong demand, there are limitations to monetary policy in increasing supply
need to make up substantial further progress before taper
As we approach “substantial further progress”, it will be healthy to start talking taper sooner rather than later
Would be good to discuss efficacy the bond buying versus side effects/ the unintended consequencesUS Initial jobless claims 473K versus 490K estimate
Prior week initially reported at 498K revised to 507K
Initial jobless claims 473K. The lowest reading since the start of the pandemic
4-week moving average of initial jobs claims 534K versus last week’s 562.25K (revised)
Continuing claims 3655K vs 3650K estimate. Prior week revised to 3700K versus 3690K previously reported
4-week moving average of continuing claims 3665K vs 3678.25K last week.
During the week ending April 24, 51 states reported 7,283,703 continued weekly claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance benefits and 51 states reported 5,265,193 continued claims for Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation benefits.
The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending May 1 were in
Kentucky (+4,714), New Jersey (+2,002), Delaware (+1,294), Vermont (+1,142), and Puerto Rico (+824),The largest decreases were in Virginia (-25,125), New York (-9,533), Florida (-8,252), California (-7,840), and Oklahoma (-6,392).
The claims are the lowest since March 14, 2020 when it was at 256K. Nevertheless the number is still at relatively high levels historically.
Weekly US initial jobless claims 444K versus 450K estimate.
The initial claims data was the lowest since March 14, 2020 when it came out at 256K
Prior week was initially reported at 473K. The prior week was revised to 478K
Four-week moving average of initial jobless claims 504.75K vs 535.25K last week. The average is the lowest since March 14, 2020.
Continuing claims 3751K versus 3630K estimate
Four-week moving average of continuing claims 3681K vs 3656.25K.
The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending May 8 were in Georgia (+7,404), Washington (+6,111), Illinois (+3,221), Pennsylvania (+2,156), and Ohio (+1,371),
The largest decreases were in Michigan (-13,990), New York (-8,106), Vermont (-5,835), Nevada (-2,835), and Florida (-2,210).During the week ending May 1, 51 states reported 6,605,416 continued weekly claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance benefits and 51 states reported 5,141,311 continued claims for Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation benefits.
The initial claims this data corresponds with the survey week for the BLS.
The employment benefits are scheduled to lapse in September. There is expectations that once that happens, the claims data will fall sharply as those choosing to receive government aid instead of working, go back to work.
Dallas Fed President Kaplan says size of unemployment benefits making workers hesitant to work, comments after weekly jobless data
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